*Rollover Summary May Series*
*Nifty* ended 6.2% lower for the series at 16,170-level. The rollovers in absolute terms are seen higher at 1.28 crore shares OI against 1.01 crore shares for the previous series. *(Short Addition)*. In percentage terms, rolls were seen flat at 79% vs 78% in the previous series on account of lower trader confidence owing to higher volatility.
*BankNifty* Index ended lower at 3.6% for the series at 35,095-level. The rollovers in absolute terms are seen lower at 0.26 crore shares OI against 0.27 crore shares for the previous series. *(Long Unwinding)*. In percentage terms, rolls were seen flat at 86% vs 85% in the previous series.
*Market wide rollovers* have declined slightly to 454 crores vs 484 crores in the previous series below the 3M average of 463 crores which might signal tepid confidence among participants. *Advance Decline Ratio* has seen a drastic decline on account of corrective action seen since the start of the May series. Advance-Decline ratio stands at 0.15 lowest in last 3 months.
*Sectors that can see outperformance:* Auto & Auto Ancillary and Consumer Goods
*Sectors that can see underperformance:* Cement, Fertilizers & Chemicals, Media, Metals , Oil & Gas, Technology and Telecom
*Sectors that can remain Neutral with mild positive bias:* Banks-Pvt & PSU, Capital Goods, Infra, Realty, Textiles, Finance, Pharma & Healthcare and Power
*Technical View*
In May’22 series, Nifty ended 6.2% lower at 16,170, as the May series saw big bouts of selling, while the VIX closed higher at ~22-level (up 16%). Amid strong selling pressure during the month, the Index witnessed breakdown from the 16,800-level, which has been a critical pivot since Nov’22. The last 15 sessions have seen the Nifty consolidating in a wide range of 16,400-15,800 with stronger bouts of weakness than strength. Having said that, the Index is seeing resilience at 15,800-16,000 zone, which is now a critical support area, while a break above the 16,400-level is likely to trigger a short-covering move towards 16,800-17,000-level.
On monthly chart (three sessions pending), the Index has formed a big red bar, while it continues to trade sideways since last 6 months above the 23.6% retracement level of post-COVID rally (7,500-18,400). However, it remains imperative for the Index to break above 18,300-level to resume the larger degree uptrend. The Index is currently spending more time below the 16,500-16,400-zone and continuing to do so would add weakness to the price action.
*Stock for June Series*
*TVSMOTOR:* (LTP 708) Price has closed higher than 3M avg. of 674 with Long Additions witnessed in May series. Improved rolls% 95% cr vs 3M avg 93%. Stock can move higher towards 745-750 while SL can be placed at 685.
*ICICIPRULI:* (LTP 529) Price closed higher vs previous series with long build-up 0.59 cr shares vs 0.54 cr shares in previous series. Stock witnessed improved rolls% 98% vs 3M avg 92% seeing strong additions in the next series as well. Stock can test 555-560 while SL can be placed at 510
*HDFCBANK:* (LTP 1367) Stock can be potential short-covering candidate this series. Stock has witnessed a drop in open interest 7.17 crs vs 8.42 crs in the previous series and improved roll cost 0.42% vs (-0.62%) suggesting traders have carried positions. Price wise, stock has moved past previous week’s high after 7 weeks suggesting strength and the stock is expected to test 1440-1450 in coming sessions while SL can be placed at 1325