TCS
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+34.50 (+1.05%)
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11.8L+
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Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) reported a sharp 7.1% (QoQ) dip in USD revenue growth in Q1FY21 versus our 4.0% decline estimate. EBITDA margin came in at 26.2% versus our 26.6% estimate. All industry and geography segments plunged, barring healthcare and Europe. While the company’s performance was weaker than anticipated, we believe USD6.9bn TCV (up 20% YoY) along with calling out of Q1FY21 as a peak pain quarter by the CEO is extremely positive. Moreover, management reiterated that faster digital adoption (led by jump in online activity) and transforming of the core will be key structural growth drivers going ahead. We reiterate that the industry is entering a high-growth phase, accentuated by the current pandemic, leading to complete change in consumer behaviour. This, we believe, will trigger structural jump in demand going forward. Maintain ‘BUY’ with TP of INR2,310.
NEUTRAL
TCS has a historical track record of adapting to multiple business challenges and technology change cycles. Additionally, it has consistently maintained its market leadership, best-in-class operational metrics, and high return ratios. While the peak of COVID-19-led uncertainty may be behind, near-term negative surprises related to demand, pricing, and collections cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless, TCS should be able to better navigate through these challenges (v/s the rest of the industry). Over the medium term, we expect TCS to be a key beneficiary of the COVID-19-driven increase in technology intensity across verticals. Rich multiples (22x FY22E EPS) leave limited upside in the stock, in our view. Accordingly, we remain NEUTRAL on the stock despite being positive on the company.
REDUCE
We maintain REDUCE on TCS, following a miss on 1Q revenue/margin, offset by improving outlook. Valuations at >1SD more than adequately factor in the recovery trajectory, although the improving nearterm visibility could keep the stock price elevated. Key positives include the following: (1) growth recovery is expected from 2Q (reversal of supply dent ~150bps); (2) BFSI vertical resilience is supported by strong deal wins (bookto-bill at 1.33x ex-Standard Life) and pipeline; (3) recovery trajectory is expected in continental Europe; (4) the company’s strong cash generation is supported by a stable DSO in a tough quarter. Key concerns include: (1) recovery lag in Retail & CPG vertical (sub-vertical impact), manufacturing vertical, and (2) UK geography’s performance (BFS weakness). Our target price of Rs 1,980 is based on 21x FY22E (+2% increase in EPS estimate).
HOLD
In the near term, revenues, margins are expected to be under pressure leading to a washout FY21E. However, TCS has the ability to bounce back as seen in the 2008 global financial crisis. Further, we believe there are long term drivers for the company in terms of market share gains, acceleration in digital technologies and ability to win large deals based on company’s execution. Hence, we remain positive on the stock from a long-term perspective. However, the current valuation factors in most of the positives. Hence, we maintain HOLD on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 2400.
HOLD
Net cash flow from operations was Rs 88.09 billion which is 109.4% of the net income. Free cash flow was Rs 80.68 billion, for the full year it was Rs 323.03 billion, which was 9.4% YoY growth. Invested funds as at March 31st stood at Rs 443.11 billion. The board has recommended a final dividend of Rs 6 per share, taking the total dividend for the year to Rs 73.
REDUCE
We maintain REDUCE on TCS following a miss on rev and slightly better operating performance. Demand-related factors to worsen while supply constraints are expected to recover ahead. The parallels to GFC are apparent (similar trajectory expected in 1HFY21), although this will be more broadbased. TCS’ estimation of recovery in 3Q-4QFY21 is a steep ask in context of 1HFY21 decline, but premised on its order-book and pipeline. Our TP of Rs 1,680, is based on 19x FY22E EPS (~5% cut in EPS est).
HOLD
In the near term, revenues and margins are expected to be under pressure leading to a wash out FY21E. However, TCS has the ability to bounce back as seen in the 2008 global financial crisis. Further, TCS’ Secure Borderless Workspace (SBW) delivery model and Machine First Delivery Model (MFDM) framework will provide unique differentiation for its services. We believe there are long term drivers for the company in terms of market share gains, acceleration in digital technologies and ability to win large deals based on company’s execution. Hence, we stay positive on the stock from a long-term perspective. However, current valuations factor in most positives. Hence, we maintain HOLD with a revised target price of | 2055 (22x FY22E EPS).
HOLD
Despite the fact that TCS is facing some aberrations in some of its key verticals, we believe that there are sort term in nature and as in the past, it will definitely recoup. Hence we continue to retain our “HOLD” rating on the stock with a target price of Rs. 2306, an upside of 7%. We value the stock at 1 Std Deviation of 3-Yr historical average FY21E of 22.9x.
HOLD
Valuations are stretched; Maintain Hold with a PT of Rs. 2,300: We have tweaked our earnings estimates for FY2020E/FY20121E/ FY2022E, factoring in miss in revenue and continued weakness in certain industry pockets. Moreover, leakage in existing/old projects and/or delay in decision making on spending programmes owing to uncertain macros and upcoming election could impact its growth in the coming quarters. We expect Q4FY2020E to remain weak owing to tightening of spends by some of its large banking and retail clients. However, we continue to like TCS on account of strength in its business model, consistency, solid execution and strong FCF generation profile. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 23x/21x of its FY2021E/ FY2022E earnings, making risk-reward ratio unfavourable when demand is moderating. Hence, we maintain our Hold rating on the stock with a PT of Rs. 2,300.
NEUTRAL
TCS currently trades at a rich multiple of ~23x FY21 EPS. Its industry leading growth, RoCEs and leadership stability will likely defend the premium multiples over the long term. However, the soft outlook for the near term and rich multiples (~23x FY21EPS) should limit the upside in the stock. Our TP of INR2,320 implies a fair valuation of ~21x FY22 EPS.
HOLD
Valuation – Valuations are stretched; downgrade to Hold with a revised PT of Rs. 2,300: We expect TCS’s constant currency (CC) revenue growth on a y-o-y basis would moderate in Q3FY2020E owing to slowdown in both the BFSI and retail verticals (together account for ~46% of total revenue) and higher impact of furloughs. Further, leakage in existing/old projects and/or delay in decision making on spending programmes owing to uncertain macros and upcoming election could impact its growth in the near term. However, we continue to like TCS on account of strength in its business model, consistency, solid execution and strong FCF generation profile. We have introduced FY2022E numbers in this note. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 26x/23x its FY2020E/FY2021E earnings, making risk-reward ratio unfavourable when demand is moderating. Hence, we downgrade our rating from Buy to Hold on the stock with a revised PT of Rs. 2,300.
HOLD
Valuations are stretched; downgrade to Hold with a revised PT of Rs. 2,300: We expect TCS’s constant currency (CC) revenue growth on a y-o-y basis would moderate in Q3FY2020E owing to slowdown in both the BFSI and retail verticals (together account for ~46% of total revenue) and higher impact of furloughs. Further, leakage in existing/old projects and/or delay in decision making on spending programmes owing to uncertain macros and upcoming election could impact its growth in the near term. However, we continue to like TCS on account of strength in its business model, consistency, solid execution and strong FCF generation profile. We have introduced FY2022E numbers in this note. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 26x/23x its FY2020E/FY2021E earnings, making risk-reward ratio unfavourable when demand is moderating. Hence, we downgrade our rating from Buy to Hold on the stock with a revised PT of Rs. 2,300.
HOLD
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) largest IT exporter in India has witnessed strong demand but reported sluggish growth in revenue terms and in operating margins, TCS reported sluggish growth of 2.1% for Q2 FY20 on QoQ basis in constant currency terms and 5.8%on YoY basis in rupee terms at Rs. 38,977 crs. Client addition for TCS remained high during Q2FY20 which will help to generates sustainable growth over long term. However operating margins during the quarter have declined by 165 bps for Q2FY20 to 26.2% from 27.9% on sequential basis, due to cross currency headwinds, higher employee expenses and subcontracting expenses. TCS also won multiple deals across segments in Q2 FY20; on hiring front, employee addition remained strong during Q2 FY20 which denotes the healthy demand outlook in medium term TCS management is keen on achieving double digit growth in FY20. The management is also expecting to improve operating margins in forthcoming years. TCS has robust business structure and leadership in the field of IT services and digital transformation. However weaker IT spending may lower growth momentum. We assign 21x P/E multiple to its FY21E earnings of Rs. 102.4 per share which gives a target price of Rs. 2,150 per share, upside of 5%.
HOLD
NEUTRAL
We downgrade our operational earnings estimate by 2-4%. Growth performance this quarter only dampens the FY20 growth prospects further. EBIT margin contraction of 250bp YoY is a reflection of high pressure on earnings growth. However, margins are likely to recover to an extent because of normalization of utilization. As we rationalize our ETRvexpectations, the EPS downgrade impact is only partial. Demand outlook for the medium term remains healthy considering strong deal wins. We expect USD revenue/EPS CAGR of 7%/7.5% over FY19-21. Our price target of INR2,000 discounts forward earnings by 20x. Maintain Neutral.
BUY
Maintain Buy with a revised PT of Rs. 2,150: We have downgraded our earnings estimates for FY2020E/FY20121E, factoring missin revenue and profitability. However, we believe margin would recoverin the coming quarters from Q2FY2020 level on account of operationalefficiencies and control on subcontracting expenses. We continue toremain positive on TCS’s revenue growth trajectory, given acceleration in deal wins with increasing TCVs, ability to stitch together large multi- service deals and traction for its product and platform portfolio. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 23x/21x its FY2020E/FY2021E EPS, justifying premium valuation given its consistency and leadership position coupled with strong FCF generation and investor-friendly payouts. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating with a revised PT of Rs. 2,150.
SELL
We retain our Sell rating on TCS with a September 2021 target price (TP) of Rs1593 (at a target P/E of 16.5x FY21E EPS, 1 SD below the mean for the past five years). This target P/E (highest in our universe) reflects the strong position that TCS holds in the Indian IT services industry through: (1) Breadth and depth in service lines, geographies and verticals, (2) Ability to stitch together integrated offerings, (3) Significant lead in automation skills, (4) Strong and stable base of experienced employees with contextual knowledge and (5) Strong product, platform and agile delivery capabilities.
BUY
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Buy the dip! We maintain BUY on TCS following a miss on revenue and an inline margin performance. Our TP is Rs 2,420 at 24x Jun-21E EPS, with ~2% cut in earnings estimates.
BUY
Soft Revenue Growth on Weak BFSI; 2Q Critical to Achieve Double-digit Growth. Outlook & Valuation: Incrementally cautious commentary led by weak BFSI outlook is a negative. Further, the current quarter will be critical with improved performance to aid double-digit growth in the fiscal. Thus, we expect the stock to remain subdued in the next quarter owing to below-par revenue performance. Nonetheless, strong TCV wins and deep participation in clients’ digital transformation journeys are likely to TCS remains one of the growth leaders in the Indian IT sector, even as this leads to potentially longer sales cycles. Apart from revenue acceleration in the current quarter, we would also watch out for margin recovery. Increasing our EPS estimates marginally by 2% for FY20E/FY21E, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs2,350 (from Rs2,300 earlier).
HOLD
Outlook & Valuation: TCS is seeing good traction in digital space despite weakness in BFSI segment and the management is confident of continuing its medium term growth path on the back of a strong deal pipeline. However achieving its aspirational margins of 26-28% will be difficult at current exchange rate and company will strive to better its margin in subsequent quarters. We believe TCS can deliver industry-leading growth and have positive view on the stock, however acknowledge the fact that margins will be tepid due to industry wide supply side pressure. At CMP of Rs 2133, TCS is trading at a P/E of 22x its FY20E earnings, which is expensive. Due to limited upside potential and expensive valuation, we maintain our Hold rating on the stock with unchanged target price of Rs 2225 valuing it at 23x FY20E EPS, giving an upside of 4.3%.
BUY
Maintain Buy with a PT of Rs. 2,300:
We have fine-tuned our earnings estimates for FY2020E/FY20121E, factoring lower- than-expected Q1FY2020 and reset of USD/INR rates. We continue to remain positive on the revenue growth momentum of TCS in FY2020E, given acceleration in deal wins with increasing TCVs, strong digital growth and good execution. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 24x/22x its FY2020E/FY2021E EPS, which commands an industry-leading PE multiple, given its consistency and leadership position. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating with a revised PT of Rs. 2,300.
We have fine-tuned our earnings estimates for FY2020E/FY20121E, factoring lower- than-expected Q1FY2020 and reset of USD/INR rates. We continue to remain positive on the revenue growth momentum of TCS in FY2020E, given acceleration in deal wins with increasing TCVs, strong digital growth and good execution. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 24x/22x its FY2020E/FY2021E EPS, which commands an industry-leading PE multiple, given its consistency and leadership position. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating with a revised PT of Rs. 2,300.
SELL
We expect high single-digit CC revenue growth for the company. We retain our Sell rating on TCS with a March 2020 target price (TP) of Rs1,601 (at a target P/E of 16.5x FY21E EPS, 1 SD below the mean for the past five years). This target P/E (highest in our universe) reflects the strong position that TCS holds in the Indian IT services industry through: (1) Breadth and depth in service lines, geographies and verticals, (2) Ability to stitch together integrated offerings, (3) Significant lead in automation skills, (4) Strong and stable base of experienced employees with contextual knowledge and (5) Strong platform and agile delivery capabilities. We reiterate out underweight call on the IT services sector. But within this stance we prefer TCS followed by Infosys and HCLT over the next 12-24 months. The strengths of TCS will help it gain market share despite its size and also help to keep its marginsamong industry’s best. We do not see this situation changing even during the downturn that we forecast - a 0% industry growth in FY21
BUY
We expect TCS to be a prime beneficiary of the commoditization of digital and AI adoption. We believe TCS to continue revenue momentum in FY20E on the back of 1) Strong TCV of deal wins at US$5.7bn (16% up YoY) in Q1FY20E & US$22bn TCV in FY19 offers us visibility in FY20E growth 2) Strong, sustained growth in digital (growing at 40% on YoY basis), 3) Core strengths such as lowest cost/attrition, large agile workforce. We would also like to highlight in last 8 quarters inspite of slight contraction in EBIT margins, TCS has always maintained its net profit margin at ~21%. We have estimated 10.1% & 10.3% USD revenue & EPS CAGR respectively for FY19-21E. We maintain Buy rating with target price of Rs.2291 valued at 22.5x FY21E earnings. Stock is currently trading at 23.1x/ 21.1x FY20E/21E earnings.
BUY
Superior execution justifies rich valuation:
TCS is expected to continue delivering strong revenue growth in FY2020E despite high base on account of superior digital capability, strong deal wins in the recent past and ability to stitch large transformational deals. Further, the company could announce another round of buyback given its strong cash & cash equivalents (Rs 49,649 crore) and its practice of returning80-100% free cash flow to shareholders. At CMP, the stock is trading at 22x/20x of its FY2020E/FY2021E earnings. We maintain our Buy ratingon the stock with a price target (PT) of Rs. 2,400, given its increasingmarket share and lower attrition rate industrywide.
TCS is expected to continue delivering strong revenue growth in FY2020E despite high base on account of superior digital capability, strong deal wins in the recent past and ability to stitch large transformational deals. Further, the company could announce another round of buyback given its strong cash & cash equivalents (Rs 49,649 crore) and its practice of returning80-100% free cash flow to shareholders. At CMP, the stock is trading at 22x/20x of its FY2020E/FY2021E earnings. We maintain our Buy ratingon the stock with a price target (PT) of Rs. 2,400, given its increasingmarket share and lower attrition rate industrywide.
BUY
BUY
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) largest IT exporter in India has witnessed strong demand across segments. Strong traction has also seen from digital space, which has reported strong growth of 46.4% for Q4 FY19 on YoY basis. Client addition of TCS remained high during Q4FY19 which will help to generate long term sustainable growth. TCS has also won multiple deals across segments in past recent quarters, total contract value (TCV) for the Q4 FY19 is highest at $ 6.2 bn. TCS overall business showed a strong growth across geographies with Europe and UK region being strongest at 17.5% YoY growth and 21.3% YoY growth respectively. However operating margins during the quarter have declined by 50 bps for Q4FY19 to 25.1% from 25.6% on sequential basis, due to cross currency headwinds and higher employee expenses and subcontracting expenses. Robust business structure, leadership in the field of IT services and digital transformation makes TCS a lucrative bet. We assign 22.4x P/E multiple to its FY20E earnings of Rs. 107.4 per share which gives a target price of Rs. 2,405 per share. This gives potential upside of 13%.
BUY
The management has stated that it intends to participate aggressively in all the tendering process and hence the use of subcontractors, given supply-side constraints in the US. Over time it is likely the management will rationalize subcontractor costs and replace them with its own lower-cost resources over time. TCS’s leadership in digital ($6.7bn annualized) are key differentiators. Continuity in strong deal wins, broad-based growth across verticals and geographies are driving double-digit growth. At CMP of INR 2014, the company is trading at 20.1x FY21E EPS. We value the company using P.E. multiple methodology. We have given an exit multiple of 23x to arrive at a target price of INR 2323 which is an upside of 15%.
ACCUMULATE
We expect TCS to continue its high growth trajectory with a topline growth of 10.9%/10.6% in FY20E/FY21E supported by its digital business initiatives. Macro environment for global IT spending is improving and is expected to increase 3.5%/2.8% in CY20E/21E. The company’s preparedness on training its work force towards Digital/Agile technologies provide a key competitive advantage for TCS over its peers and should translate into key client account wins. On the margin front, we expect EBIT to improve 50-60 bps over FY20/21. TCS is currently trading at a P/E multiple of 23.0x/20.9x on FY20E/FY21E earnings. In our view, TCS shares warrant a sector premium for its market leadership position, readiness to participate aggressively into new opportunities and its high ROE. We apply a P/E multiple of 24.3x to the FY20 estimated EPS of INR 92 to arrive at a target price of INR 2236 per share, an upside of 5.8% over last close. Accordingly, we assign an “ACCUMULATE” rating to the stock.
BUY
TCS’ strong TCV wins, improving YoY growth in BFSI, all-round vertical growth, rising Digital revenue and healthy 4Q exit rate drive confidence on underlying momentum, and we expect the IT major to comfortably post double-digit revenue growth in FY20E (>11%). We are encouraged with margin management in a challenging environment. High payouts to shareholders in the form of buybacks, along with good visibility will ensure the stock remains at elevated valuations.Rolling over our estimates to FY21E, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs2,300 (from Rs2,190 earlier).
SELL
We, therefore, lower our EBIT margin estimate for FY20 by 110bps to 24.8%. While we expect Infosys to grow its revenues a tad faster than that of TCS in FY20, its EBIT margin will likely be ~260bps lower. The strengths of TCS in automation, platforms, a stable workforce, ‘location- independent agile’ methodology, etc help to keep its margins among industry’s best. Post 4QFY19, we retain Sell rating on TCS with a March 2020 target price of Rs1,614 (at a target P/E of 16.5x FY21E EPS, 1 SD below the mean for the past five years). This target P/E (highest in our universe) is reflective of the strong position that TCS holds through: (1) Breadth and depth in service lines, geographies and verticals. (2) Ability to stitch together integrated offerings. (3) Significant lead in automation skills. (4) Strong and stable base of experienced employees with contextual knowledge. (5) Strong platform and agile delivery capabilities. We prefer TCS followed by Infosys and HCLT within our coverage universe over the next 12-24 months. The P/E compression trade between TCS and Infosys will stall as investors grapple with likely margin of Infosys in FY20.
BUY
Maintain Buy with a PT of Rs. 2,400: We have fine-tuned our earnings estimates for FY2020E/FY20121E, factoring in margin headwinds owing to shortage of talents for new-age technologies and reset of USD/ INR rates. We remain positive on the revenue growth momentum of TCS in FY2020E, given acceleration in deal wins with increasing TCVs, strong digital growth and good execution. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 22x/20x its FY2020E/FY2021E EPS, which commands an industry-leading PE multiple, given its increasing market share among large peers and industry- leading organic growth prospects. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a price target (PT) of Rs. 2,400.
ACCUMULATE
Strong revenue growth outlook despite macro-economic concerns The management is confident of strong growth in FY20 despite macro- economic challenges in the environment. The company signed TCV of USD 6.3bn during the quarter and TCV of USD 21.9bn for FY19 which gives us comfort for the growth trajectory in FY20. We expect a USD revenue growth of 9%/10% in USD terms for FY20/FY21, which factors in healthy growth in the BFSI vertical. The company maintained its aspirational margin band of 26%-28% despite visa rejection and talent shortage; we expect TCS to deliver margin towards lower end of its guidance. We downgrade our earnings estimate by 1.8%/6% for FY20/FY21 due revision in rupee assumption to ` 70 for FY20/FY21 (vs Rs 72/ Rs 74 for FY20/FY21 earlier). However, we maintain our ACCUMULATE rating with a revised TP of Rs 2,225 based on 22x (20x earlier) one-year fwd. PER. We upgraded our multiple on back of strong deal win and order book which will help company deliver healthy growth over the next two years.
BUY
We maintain BUY on TCS following an inline 4QFY19. Our TP is Rs 2,410 implying 24x FY21E EPS, with ~1% change in est. TCS is our top large cap IT pick. TCS’ growth and scale leadership in digital (USD 6.7bn annualized) are key differentiators. Continuity in strong deal wins, broad-based growth across verticals (esp. core) and geographies are driving double-digit growth. Margin/attrition differential vs. peerset reflects superior execution. Payout policy (80-100% of FCF), 90% FCF/PAT, ~4% FCF yield and 11/10% USD rev/EPS CAGR over FY19- 21E support valuations (currently at 20x FY21E). Risks to our thesis include macro slowdown in NorthAm/Europe and INR appreciation.
BUY
TCS posted a strong results beating consensus estimates on revenues & margins. Improved deal wins, stronger exit rate, broad based growth, robust pipeline & stable pricing environment will help TCS to deliver double digit growth in FY20E. Strong growth in major verticals (BFSI, Retail) & major geographies (US, Europe) gives us more confidence about TCS execution & pricing power. We reiterate TCS as our top pick in tier-1 IT sector since it’s likely to gain more market share using its specific core strengths viz. lowest cost/attrition, large agile workforce, early investments in building digital capabilities & strong execution. TCS’s valuation premium is justified given its solid & predictable earnings track record. We have raised our EPS estimates by 2.6%/2.9% of FY20E/21E to factor robust revenue growth & stable margin performance. Our revised TP stands at Rs.2312 (earlier: Rs.2265) valued at 22.5x Mar-21 multiple. Maintain Buy.
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About
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.
NSE: TCS | BSE: 532540 | ISIN: INE467B01029 | Sector: Information Technology
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