Is the COVID-19 pandemic making you downcast, dejected, despondent? Is the lockdown making you feel dispirited? Are you sick and tired of being cooped up at home? Do you miss meeting your friends? Are you worried about your job? Do not worry, help is at hand. No, there's no need to drown your sorrows in booze----all you have to do to lift your spirits is look at the stock market.
Trust me, I've been doing it regularly these days. Whenever I wake up feeling blue, I call my pals in the stock market. To pep you up, here are some of the uplifting conversations I've had with them.
The first one was when the epidemic had just started and the markets were crashing. Here's a rough transcript:
Me: Boss, the world is crashing, markets are plummeting, folks are dying on the streets in Italy.
Market Maven: It's a great opportunity. Buy when there's virus in the streets. Have you heard of the Black Death?
Me: The bubonic plague that swept over Europe in the Middle Ages?
MM: Precisely. It killed millions, wages shot up as a result, the feudal economy collapsed, but capitalism rose like a phoenix from its ashes in the centuries that followed, heralding Europe's golden age. Look on the bright side. Buy pharma stocks.
I felt much better after seeing that Big Picture and realising that I was living in historic times.
But a few weeks later, when the migrant workers were trudging back home, I felt depressed again and called an investment guru.
Me: Boss, have you seen the plight of those poor migrant workers?
Investment Guru: Good they're going back to their villages, no?
Me: Won't the infection spread?
IG: On the contrary, they will go and start sowing crops. Agricultural production will rise, their incomes will go up, they will start buying soaps and shampoo, milk and meat and fish and biryani, biscuits and cake and Coke and Pepsi and chocolates and antacids.
Me: Antacids?
IG: To digest all that. Rural demand will rise, we will sell them tractors and motorbikes, factories will start humming and soon we'll be on our way to a $5 trillion economy. Buy agri shares.
I undid the top two buttons on my shirt, as my chest had started expanding with pride.
But some days later, when the death rate started spiking up in India and economists warned that the economy was shrinking, I became morose again and called a fund manager.
Me: Boss, these economists are saying the Indian economy will shrink 5 percent this year.
Fund manager: Never listen to economists. If we had listened to economists when our ancestors were apes, we would still be swinging from tree to tree in some forest. If one ape wanted to walk on two feet, the ape economist would say productivity would halve because we would use two instead of four limbs for locomotion, depressing the GDP. On the other hand, the ape chartered accountant would not only have encouraged walking on two legs, he would have managed to get a tax break for the guy who was doing it. The moral of the story: forget economists, listen to chartered accountants instead.
Me: But the pandemic is getting worse. The death rate is going up.
FM: Look on the bright side. If enough people die, even if GDP comes down, per capita income would go up. And since more elderly people would die, the demographic dividend would go up, productivity would increase and India can take its rightful place as a developed economy. Buy stocks.
I went away from that conversation feeling reassured.
Not long after that fruitful exchange, I became depressed again after the Chinese intrusion in Ladakh. This time, I called a technical analyst.
Me: Boss, the Chinese are coming.
Tehnical analyst: Rubbish. All the charts are bullish. Take a look at these candlesticks here, can't you see that bullish Doji star. And there's a harami here.
Me: China?
TA: I mean a harami pattern. See that bullish engulfing sign, it means stocks rock.
Not knowing what to make of all that, I called a fundamental analyst.
Me: Boss, all this talk of trade disruption is not good, no?
Fundamental analyst: It's fantastic, a heaven-sent opportunity. With everyone gunning for China, we'll see industry shifting to India, Make in India, India becoming a $10 trillion economy, a world power and so on. Atmanirbhar Bharat will soon be a reality---isn't some company with Bharat in its name trying to make a vaccine for the virus?
Me: Bharat Biotech?
FA: Not sure. Best buy all stocks that have Bharat in their names.
I felt good for several days after that upbeat chat. But I was increasingly irritable after being locked up at home for so long and called a foreign institutional investor to vent my feelings.
Me: Boss, if these lockdowns continue, there will soon be a wave of bankruptcies, no?
Foreign institutional investor: Good. All the small firms will go belly up, the big ones which are listed will gain market share. It's great for the market.
Me: Hmmm…
FII: Why are you so negative? Are you feeling lonely and unhappy? Relax, there's absolutely no reason to feel lonely, you have Powell uncle at the Fed to back you up, Lagarde aunty at the European Central Bank by your side and Kuroda-san at the Bank of Japan, all printing money hand over fist to help you. At home we have Shaktikanta chacha and Nirmala chachi all working away non-stop to support you. Why, even Yi Gang ji, the governor of the People's Bank of China, sends you his best wishes. Think of them as your extended family. Buy, buy, buy.
That little talk made me feel all warm and comfortable, so much so that I called a day trader.
Me: Boss, I realise now that all is well, everything is hunky-dory and I'd like to start trading in the markets.
Day Trader: Excellent news. Trading is no big deal, all you need to do is look at the Put-call ratio, the 200-day EMA, the RSI, the OI, the MACD and Fibonacci retracements once in a while, apart from keeping an eye on vol and out of the money options.
Me: Oh. Are there any short cuts?
DT: Hmmm….oh, what the hell, JBTDD.
Me: What?
DT: Just buy the damn dips.