We expect USD revenue growth of 3.0/5.4% and IT services EBIT% at 18.1/18.3% for FY20/21E. Wipro trades at 14.7x FY21E EPS (in-line with Tier-1 median), which is rich considering its growth profile. Our SELL stance is driven by the weakness in core growth metrics and execution challenges. Risk to our thesis include improved US/Europe macro and INR depreciation. We maintain SELL on WIPRO, post weak 1QFY20 and tepid guidance for 2Q. Wipro’s revenue growth remains the lowest in tier-1 IT. In view of growth challenges, peaking margins and taxation on buyback we further cut our target multiple. Our TP of Rs 220 is based on 12x (vs. 14x earlier) Jun-21E EPS.
We believe that Wipro is struggling to achieve any degree of consistency. The timing of the recovery remains key & revenue growth of Wipro is never broad- based. The company's revenue growth has been below 1% (Q/Q CC) in 8 of the past thirteen quarters, suggesting that growth momentum is difficult to predict. We expect 4.5% & 7.3% USD revenue & EPS CAGR for FY19E-FY21E respectively & value Wipro at 14.5x Mar-21 earnings to arrive an changed target price of Rs.238. Maintain Reduce. Stock is currently trading at 17.6x FY20E EPS and 15.9x FY21E EPS.
The impact of client specific issues in FY19 has receded with a slow & steady improvements starting to be seen. The improvement is expected to progress further in FY21E. Accompanied by digital story & execution pick up, this would lead to growth ramp up in the long term. Further, room for margin revision, healthy capital allocation policy and reasonable valuation compared to peers (~13x FY21E EPS) prompts us to maintain BUY on Wipro. Hence, we maintain target price of Rs 315/share (~16x FY21E EPS).
We believe we have been a bit generous in our EBIT margin estimates for both years. We retain our Sell rating on Wipro with a target price (TP) of Rs212 (using 11.6x target P/E based on FY21E EPS, 30% discount to the target P/E assigned to TCS). Our Sell rating on Wipro is explained by our estimate of a no-growth year in FY21 for the sector as we expect global spending to soften (see sector view on the next page). We expect Wipro to underperform industry. We believe our target P/E multiple is justified on the basis that Wipro has lagged its Tier-1 peers on organic growth, has less diversified revenue streams and also has lower return ratios versus TCS.
Maintain Hold with a revised PT of Rs. 285: We have revised downward our earnings estimates for FY2020E/FY2021E, factoring in lower-than-expected revenue growth in Q1FY2020 along with muted growth in Q2 revenue guidance and reset of USD/INR rate. With inconsistent execution along with macro uncertainties, underperformance in revenue growth among large peers is expected to continue for FY2020E. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 15.8x/14.2x its FY2020/FY2021 earnings estimates, which is justified due to continued underperformance. Wipro continues to remain our least preferred IT company among top-tier companies. Hence, we maintain Hold with a revised PT of Rs. 285.