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VIPIND Consensus Forecast

No. of reports in last year
13
No. of analysts
5
Average Consensus Forecast
474.15
Consensus Potential
41.90%

VIPIND Price Target Potential

BrokerageTargetPotential
Prabhudas Lilladher229-12.45%
Axis Direct28910.90%
ICICIdirect.com50549.01%
Kotak Securities53051.42%
Indiabulls Ventures54052.31%

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VIPIND Ratings

Long term VIPIND rating by FrontPage users
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5/5 (6 Ratings)
13 VIPIND share price target reports by brokerages below. See what is analyst's view on VIPIND share price forecast, rating, estimates, valuation and prediction behind the target. You may use these research report forecasts for long-term to medium term for your investment or trades in 2020.
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VIPIND Share Price Target

VIPIND Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2020

27-May-20
Price @ Call: 206.23
Target: 229
HOLD
We cut our EPS estimates by 48%/32% for FY21E/FY22E as 1) discretionary spending post-COVID is expected to be weak resulting in a prolonged demand slump 2) aggressive discounting by players to gain market share can result in heightened competitive intensity and 3) sales in 1Q (strongest quarter for VIP) is expected to be negligible due to lockdown. Further, we expect working capital issues to emerge (cash conversion cycle to be at 130 days in FY21 versus 91 days in FY20) as inventory liquidation (advance orders placed to vendors during Oct/Nov 2019) and receivable collection (recoverability issue can emerge due to tight liquidity situation) can prove to be a challenge. While VIP has undertaken cost optimization exercise to reduce fixed cost outgo (30% reduction envisaged) and margin performance has been commendable (best ever GM of 57.6%), we believe COVID-19 has structurally derailed the growth momentum. We thus maintain our HOLD rating and revise our TP to Rs229 (earlier Rs334) effectively valuing the stock at 25x (no change in target multiple) FY22 EPS of Rs9.2.
... Read more
28-Apr-20
Price @ Call: 231.52
Target: 289
BUY
COVID-19 IMPACTS GROWTH; VALUATIONS ATTRACTIVE Luggage is a proxy to travel and tourism growth, with COVID-19 hitting the Tourism sector hardest owing to its dependence on discretionary spends. VIP Industries too has seen the impact of this as is reflected in its stock price correction of over 50% from its 52 week high in Feb 2020. VIP IN at CMP is trading at its mean valuations of 15-17x reported from FY13- 17. Uncertainty over the rise in number of cases and widespread impact of the pandemic on consumer priorities both in terms of precautions and post lockdown implies a much deeper and prolonged impact on travel both outbound and domestic as consumer discretionary spends reduce over the near to medium term. Resultantly, luggage players like VIP Industries will see its revenues coming under pressure owing to changed consumer priorities and preferences. EBITDA Margins could be hit owing to unfavorable currency and weak operating leverage. We cut our Earnings estimates for FY20E/FY21E/FY22E by 13%/34%/29% respectively. This leads us to revising our target multiple to 22x FY22E EPS (earlier 28x) and target price to Rs. 289/share (earlier Rs. 554/share). Retain BUY given attractive valuations. Although, near term has been impacted owing to the pandemic, the long term structural growth story remains intact given huge scope for growth aided by 1) shift from unorganized to organized, 2) rise in outbound tourists and 3) growing millennial population
... Read more
25-Feb-20
Price @ Call: 451.2
Target: 472
HOLD
Our interaction with Mr. Dilip Piramal of VIP Industries indicated that long term growth drivers are intact, despite near term headwinds as 1) recent market share loss was tactical since VIP avoided low margin large institutional orders 2) there is clear focus on regaining lost share despite aggressive discounting in the mass segment and 3) despite the corona-virus mayhem limited supply disruptions are expected if the Chinese soft luggage production resumes by 1st week of March given that 1Q is peak quarter (~30% of sales accrue in first quarter) for VIP. In addition, rising contribution of hard luggage (manufactured in-house) will not only improve profitability but also reduce currency risk in long term. We expect sales/PAT CAGR of 10%/16% over FY19-22E. Maintain HOLD with a TP of Rs472 (32x Sep 21E EPS).
... Read more
18-Feb-20
Price @ Call: 456.69
Target: 505
HOLD
Since revenue contribution for VIP is skewed towards the first quarter of the financial year (~30% of revenue), disruption on the supply side may pose a risk to growth for FY21. We remain cautious on the near term outlook, amid headwinds faced by the luggage industry. Owing to its healthy balance sheet (D/E: 0.1x, NWC days: 85) and strong brand patronage among consumers, VIP’s business model has the inherent ability to tide over tough market conditions. Furthermore, owing to its strong manufacturing capacity (Bangladesh: soft luggage, India: hard luggage), it is well placed compared to its peers. Factoring in the performance of YTDFY20, we revise our earnings estimate downwards for FY20, FY21E. Therefore, we downgrade our recommendation from BUY to HOLD with a revised target price of | 505 (31.0x FY22E EPS, earlier target price: Rs 540).
... Read more
14-Feb-20
Price @ Call: 470.35
Target: 530
ADD
7-Feb-20
Price @ Call: 486.46
Target: 540
BUY
27-Jan-20
Price @ Call: 466.34
Target: 554
BUY
‘BUY’ with Target Price of Rs. 554 valuing at 28x FY22E VIP IN is the leader in the organised and oligopolistic Indian luggage market and will continue to maintain its numero uno position owing to a strong brand pull, widespread product offerings, deeply entrenched distribution network (~11,000 touch points), debt free balance sheet and strong cash generation. We estimate the company to report Revenue/PAT CAGR of 12%/24% over FY19-22E aided by growth across its brands viz. Skybags, VIP, Caprese and Carlton over the next couple years. Scaling up of Bangladesh operations, strong bargaining power with Chinese vendors for sourcing soft luggage and efficient inventory management will lead to improved working capital efficiency and also EBITDA Margin expansion of o+300bps to 15.6% by FY22E over FY19. We thus believe its premium valuation is justified given its leadership position and balance sheet strength.
... Read more

VIPIND Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2019

8-Nov-19
Price @ Call: 438.71
Target: 530
BUY
Amidst slowdown in GDP and discretionary spend, VIP Industries has reported reasonable set of numbers with low single digit YoY volume growth, revenue of Rs 4.12 bn (+2.6% YoY), strong EBIDTA margins of 16.1% (+340 bps YoY) with depreciation of rupee and lower crude prices and PAT of Rs 329 mn. Performance across brands (Aristocrat, Skybags, VIP and Carlton) and across channels remains strong for the company. We continue to have positive view on the stock with healthy overall volume growth and high brand recall. Recommend BUY with a lower target price of Rs 530 (from Rs 555) at 35x FY21 earnings.
... Read more
7-Nov-19
Price @ Call: 454.76
Target: 530
BUY
We cut our EPS estimates by 8.8%/8.7% for FY20E/FY21E given aggravating concerns on growth amid slowdown in discretionary spends. All channels except for e-com have struggled but a diversified mix has helped VIP tackle slowdown concerns better. Despite subdued top-line growth, gross margin expanded 250bps YoY to 53.3% amid improved negotiation with Chinese vendors who are saddled with excess capacity after increase in import duty by the US. The gross margin advantage got nullified at the operating level due to 19% YoY increase in employee expenses due to addition of manpower and rise in minimum wages at the subsidiary in Bangladesh. While we do not rule out near term growth headwinds, we believe the structural story of 1) premiumisation (luggage has become more of a fashion statement rather than just a utility product) and 2) increased competitiveness of the organized players post GST implementation remains intact. We thus maintain our positive stance and value the stock at 32x (earlier 33x) Sep21 EPS with a TP of Rs530 (earlier 540). Maintain BUY.
... Read more
18-Oct-19
Price @ Call: 470.33
Target: 540
BUY
VIP has a capital efficient business model, generating 32%+ RoCE and having virtually debt free status. Owing to its market leadership and strong brand patronage among consumers, VIP’s business model has the inherentability to tide over tough market conditions and continue its profitable growth journey. We expect VIP revenue’s to grow at a CAGR of 16% over FY19-FY21E on a high base of FY19 (revenue growth of 27%). On the profitability front, healthy EBITDA margins in Q1FY20 and reduction in taxation rate for FY20 is expected to aid PAT growth. We model in 23% PAT CAGR in FY19-21E and expect RoCE to improve by 230 bps to 35.0% in FY21E. We ascribe BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 540, valuing at 35x FY21E EPS of Rs 15.4.
... Read more
13-Sep-19
Price @ Call: 411
Target: 497
BUY
The Hypermarket channel continues to witness the strongest growth amongst channels. New product introductions in brand V.I.P was widely accepted by consumers for their contemporary designs and faith of consumers on the brand for its quality led to a very high growth in the brand. We continue to have positive view on the stock with healthy overall volume growth and high brand recall. Recommend BUY with an unchanged target price of Rs 515 at 37x FY21 earnings.
... Read more
31-Jul-19
Price @ Call: 385.85
Target: 460
BUY
We continue to maintain our aggressive estimate, post two preceding weak quarters, followed by a strong quarter of Q1FY20. We estimate a revenue CAGR of 10.5% and earnings CAGR of 19.5% over FY19 to FY21E with strong operating margins and return ratios. The stock has corrected by more than 15% in the last 6 months, in line with correction in broader market and offers upside potential. Recommend BUY (from ADD) for this high growth stock with an unchanged TP of Rs 460 at 33x FY21E earnings.
... Read more
30-Jul-19
Price @ Call: 368.3
Target: 488
BUY
Given most of the margin levers are structural in nature, we marginally increase our pre-Ind AS EBITDA margin assumptions by 30bps/20bps for FY20E/21E respectively. We continue to remain positive on VIP as structural story remains intact and value the stock at 33x FY21E EPS with a TP of Rs488 (earlier Rs564).
... Read more
9-May-19
Price @ Call: 420.65
Target: 460
ADD
Two continuous weak quarter of operational performance (Q4FY19 and Q3FY19) is not providing us with confidence of strong performance for VIP in H1FY20, the kind of strong performance the company experienced in FY18 and H1FY19 which saw significant re- rating for the stock. We continue to estimate the company to be a major beneficiary of increasing penetration of luggage bags and back packs in the country, improving living standards leading to increased air and rail travel and also the desire for travellers to have branded luggage. However, we are not comfortable with the macros and the strategy (aggressive pricing) and business model (China sourcing). Under current circumstances, for VIP, we estimate a revenue CAGR of 11% with fall in margins from highs of FY18 over FY19 to FY21E. Recommend ADD (from BUY) with a reduced price target of Rs 460 (from Rs.515) valuing the stock at 33X FY21E earnings (from 39x).
... Read more
8-May-19
Price @ Call: 420.63
Target: 564
BUY
Although margin pressure was evident in the quarter, product premiumisation (rising share of Caprese and Carlton & repositioning of brand VIP), strategy to take calibrated price hikes and increase in production from captive facilities at Bangladesh will aid in 130bps EBITDA margin expansion over FY19-21E. We remain positive on VIP given market leadership (~50% revenue share) in the organized luggage industry, well-diversified product portfolio (six brands and multiple SKUs exceeding 1,500) and solid brand salience (brand-ex is ~5-7% of sales). We value the stock at 33x FY21E EPS in light of strong growth prospects (sales/PAT to grow at a CAGR of 21.8%/29.0% over FY19-21E) and the size of opportunity pie (transition towards organized market) VIP has at its disposal post GST. Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs564 (earlier Rs579).
... Read more
4-Apr-19
Price @ Call: 478.67
Target: 566
BUY
25-Mar-19
Price @ Call: 443.1
Target: 579
BUY
We initiate coverage on VIP Industries Ltd (VIP) with a BUY rating given market leadership (~50% revenue share) in the organized luggage industry, well-diversified product portfolio (six brands and multiple SKUs exceeding 1,500) and solid brand salience (brand-ex is ~5-7% of sales). Strong distribution network (~11,000 touch points), GST implementation (narrowed pricing gap with unorganized players resulting in up-trading) and entry into the under penetrated ladies hand bags and backpack market is likely to drive sales/PAT at a CAGR of 23.7%/25.1% over FY18-21E. While headwinds from currency & crude volatility prevail, product premiumisation (rising share of Caprese and Carlton) and increase in production from captive facilities at Bangladesh will aid in 40bps EBITDA margin expansion over FY18-21E. We expect premium valuations (32.7x FY20E and 25.3x FY21E) to sustain given strong growth prospects, debt free BS, high return ratios (RoE/RoCE of 25.6%/36.9% in FY18; to expand by 230bps/310bps over FY18-21E), and healthy dividend pay-out (average 41% over last 5 years). Initiate with a BUY and TP of Rs579.
... Read more
15-Mar-19
Price @ Call: 430
Target: 515
BUY
We consider Q3FY19 to be an exceptional quarter for VIP and won’t read it as a change in trend or structural changes in the business. For VIP, we continue to estimate a revenue CAGR of 18% and earnings CAGR of 21% over FY18 to FY20E with strong operating margins and return ratios. The stock has corrected by more than 15% since our last update and provides an opportunity to invest in this high growth stock. Recommend BUY with an unchanged price target of Rs 515 valuing the stock at 39X FY20E earnings.
... Read more
12-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 458.4
Target: 542
ACCUMULATE
While the growth in volume remains encouraging and is likely to sustain as the company is in sweet spot in a fast growing luggage industry. However, we have cut our margin assumption for next two years in view of competitive pricing pressure. Overall, we have cut our earnings estimates by ~10% for FY2019 and FY2020 and are expecting a CAGR of ~26/29% in revenue/ earnings over FY18-20E. The stock is trading at 33.1x our FY2020 earnings, post recent correction. Looking at the near term margin pressure, we now recommend ACCUMULATE with a target price of `542 (35x rolled over on average of FY2020E and FY2021E EPS).
... Read more
11-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 490
Target: 515
ADD

VIPIND Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2018

19-Nov-18
Price @ Call: 473.08
Target: 555
BUY
4-Oct-18
Price @ Call: 414.8
Target: 515
BUY
23-May-18
Price @ Call: 406.67
Target: 445
BUY
26-Feb-18
Price @ Call: 352.11
Target: 383
BUY
30-Jan-18
Price @ Call: 339.88
Target: 415
BUY

VIPIND Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2017

8-Nov-17
Price @ Call: 299.85
Target: 325
ACCUMULATE
21-Sep-17
Price @ Call: 248.25
Target: 325
BUY
21-Sep-17
Price @ Call: 248.25
Target: 295
BUY
9-Sep-17
Price @ Call: 229
Target: 260
BUY
3-Aug-17
Price @ Call: 186
Target: 225
BUY
22-May-17
Price @ Call: 193
Target: 204
BUY
8-Mar-17
Price @ Call: 153
Target: 180
BUY
14-Feb-17
Price @ Call: 148
Target: 179
BUY

VIPIND Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2016

25-May-16
Price @ Call: 114
Target: 138
BUY
14-Sep-16
Price @ Call: 128.96
Target: 140
BUY
11-Aug-16
Price @ Call: 128
Target: 140
BUY
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  • VIPIND Share Price Target Today- Technical Pivot Points (Classic)

    keyboard_arrow_down
    Upside Target 3271.23
    Upside Target 2267.67
    Upside Target 1262.58
    Pivot259.02
    Downside Target 1253.93
    Downside Target 2250.37
    Downside Target 3245.28

  • VIPIND Share Price Target weekly- Technical Pivot Points (Classic)

    keyboard_arrow_down
    Upside Target 3283.87
    Upside Target 2276.43
    Upside Target 1267.62
    Pivot260.18
    Downside Target 1251.37
    Downside Target 2243.93
    Downside Target 3235.12

  • VIPIND Share Price Target monthly- Technical Pivot Points (Classic)

    keyboard_arrow_down
    Upside Target 3356.47
    Upside Target 2322.08
    Upside Target 1289.87
    Pivot255.48
    Downside Target 1223.27
    Downside Target 2188.88
    Downside Target 3156.67

  • VIPIND Share Price Target today- Technical Pivot Points (Fibonacci)

    keyboard_arrow_down
    Upside Target 3267.67
    Upside Target 2264.36
    Upside Target 1262.32
    Pivot259.02
    Downside Target 1255.71
    Downside Target 2253.67
    Downside Target 3250.37

  • VIPIND Share Price Target weekly- Technical Pivot Points (Fibonacci)

    keyboard_arrow_down
    Upside Target 3276.43
    Upside Target 2270.23
    Upside Target 1266.39
    Pivot260.18
    Downside Target 1253.98
    Downside Target 2250.14
    Downside Target 3243.93

  • VIPIND Share Price Target monthly- Technical Pivot Points (Fibonacci)

    keyboard_arrow_down
    Upside Target 3322.08
    Upside Target 2296.64
    Upside Target 1280.92
    Pivot255.48
    Downside Target 1230.04
    Downside Target 2214.32
    Downside Target 3188.88
SOURCE: Data from D'Market via Quandl. Intraday data delayed 15 minutes.
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