The stock has underperformed the markets and has corrected 35% in the last one year on the uncertainty of new supply facilities coming up and the unclear stance of the government on the use of single use plastic. However, both the issues have turned out to be inconsequential for the industry as a whole and we believe the stock has bottomed out and can a turnaround from here. We expect Uflex’s revenues to grow at 6.2% CAGR from FY19-21E and EBITDA to grow at 7.5% during the same period. PAT is expected to grow at 12.9% CAGR.
We have valued the company on EV/EBITDA basis, as we believe that packaging business deserves a higher multiple than the commoditized film business. We have valued Packaging business incl. Aseptic at 4x EV/EBITDA on FY20E EBITDA and the films business at 3.5x on FY20E EBITDA and arrived at a target of INR 276, which implies 33.5% upside from current levels. We recommend “HOLD” rating on the stock.
We have valued the company on EV/EBITDA basis, as we believe that packaging business deserves a higher multiple than the commoditized film business. We have valued Packaging business incl. Aseptic at 4.5x EV/EBITDA on FY20E EBITDA and the films business at 3.5x on FY20E EBITDA and arrived at a target of INR 305, which implies 19.5% upside from current levels. We recommend “HOLD” rating on the stock.