8 TRITURBINE share price target reports by brokerages below. See what is analyst's view on TRITURBINE share price forecast, rating, estimates, valuation and prediction behind the target. You may use these research report forecasts for long-term to medium term for your investment or trades in 2020.
Triveni Turbine Ltd (TRIV) reported steady set of numbers which were largely in line with our estimates. Revenue was down 4% YoY where exports grew 14% YoY which was offset by de-growth in domestic markets by 15% YoY. Order inflow (OI) increased 11% YoY mainly on account of growth in exports market which grew 28.5% YoY and domestic market remained muted. Order backlog (OB) was down 8% YoY at Rs6.94bn, which management is confident of higher year end number on the back of healthy enquiry pipeline. In the exports market, the renewable sector is driving demand mainly Biomass & Waste-to-Energy projects. On the domestic front, both renewable energy including sugar co-generation, Biomass IPP, waste-to-energy and process co-generation segments have strong enquiry pipeline. With a good enquiry pipeline, management expects strong order intake in the domestic market as well exports markets for 4QFY20. We have cut our revenue/PAT estimates for FY20E/21E by 2.2%/2.3% and 3.6%/9.5% respectively. The stock is currently trading at 24.3/21.5x FY20/FY21E. As the stock price has corrected sharply in the recent past we have upgraded our rating from Accumulate to Buy with TP of Rs130 (28x FY21E).
Market opportunity, revenue and margin visibility are supported by strong balance sheet and lean working capital cycle. We expect earnings for Triveni to reach Rs. 4.9 in FY21E and continue to maintain ‘BUY’ rating on the stock by valuing it at 24x FY21E earnings (4 year fwd earnings average) for a target of Rs. 117. Keydownside risk to our call is order inflow momentum and pace of execution.
Triveni Turbine Ltd (TRIV) reported good set of numbers with revenue up 14% YoY mainly driven by traction in domestic market. However, exports continue to be weak with de-growth for third consecutive quarter. Order inflow (OI) declined 3% YoY mainly on account of de-growth in exports market due to postponement of order finalization. Hence, order backlog (OB) was down 11% YoY at Rs6.9 bn, which management is confident of higher year end number on the back of healthy enquiry pipeline. In the export market, the renewable sector is driving demand mainly Biomass & Waste-to-Energy and Pulp & Paper projects. On the domestic front, Food processing, Distillery, Pulp & Paper, Waste Heat recovery and Cement etc. With a good enquiry pipeline, management expects strong order intake in the domestic market for the second half as well. We have maintained our numbers and expect TRIV to deliver revenue/PAT CAGR of 12/28% over next two years (FY19-21E). The stock is currently trading at 24.3/20.4x FY20/FY21E. We maintain Accumulate with TP of Rs142 (28x FY21E).
Robust growth; healthy margins Triveni Turbine (TTL) has reported 1QFY20 consolidated revenue of Rs2.1bn, up 24% YoY and above our/consensus estimate of Rs1.8bn. Topline growth was driven by domestic sales, which grew by 83% YoY to Rs1.2bn, led by preponement of turbine deliveries. Export sales declined by 10% YoY to Rs971mn on a high base. Turbine revenues were up 33% YoY at Rs1.7bn, while After-market Services sales were flat YoY at Rs414mn. Gross margin contracted by 420bps YoY to 43.4% (44.2% in FY19) because of unfavourable revenue mix (high-margin After-market Services accounted for 19% of sales versus 24% YoY). EBITDA increased by 44% YoY to Rs437mn aided by lower other expenses (down 13% YoY at Rs245mn). Driven by value engineering and cost-reduction exercise, EBITDA margin jumped by 280bps YoY to 20.5%, above our/consensus estimates of 17.9%/17.7%. PBT grew by 54% YoY to Rs444mn while PAT jumped by 62% YoY to Rs307mn, partly aided by lower tax rate (30.9% versus 34.1%). Order inflow in 1QFY20 stood at Rs2.1bn, down 10% YoY, but in line with past two years’ averagequarterly run-rate of Rs2bn. Order backlog was flat QoQ and down 7% YoY at Rs7.2bn, with the domestic:export mix at 52:48. We maintain Buy rating on TTL with an unchanged target price of Rs135 based on 28x FY21E earnings.
Strong 1QFY20 numbers, Order backlog declines Management has maintained guidance for double digit revenue growth and expansion in margin in FY20. We have maintained our numbers and expect TRIV to deliver revenue/PAT CAGR of 12/19% over next two years (FY19-21E). The stock is currently trading at 27/23x FY20/FY21E. We maintain Accumulate with TP of Rs124 (28x FY21E).
However, it was broadly similar to 3QFY19 margin of 17%. PAT fell 20% YoY to Rs283mn, below our/consensus estimate of Rs363mn/Rs347mn, respectively. 4QFY19 margins were also impacted by adverse revenue mix owing to lower contribution from high-margin exports (37% of total sales versus 46% YoY) and after-market services (19% of total sales versus 22% YoY). Order inflow in 4QFY19 stood at Rs2.1bn, similar to the past three years’ averagequarterly run-rate of Rs2bn. However, it was down 19% YoY on a high base of 4QFY18 (which had highest quarterly inflow of Rs2.5bn). Order backlog grew 2% YoY to Rs7.2bn, with the domestic:export mix at 50:50. We have cut our earnings estimates by 7%/8% for FY20/FY21, respectively, and retained Buy rating on TTL with a revised target price of Rs135 (from Rs147 earlier) based on 28x FY21E earnings.
Management has guided for double digit revenue growth and expansion in margin in FY20 (1QFY120 could be weaker due to elections). We expect TRIV to deliver revenue/PAT CAGR of 12/19% over next two years (FY19-21E). The stock is currently trading at 29.4/24.9x FY20/FY21E. We downgrade stock from Buy to Accumulate with revised TP of Rs124 (28x FY21E) due to a) weak pricing in domestic market due to intense competition b) Slower pick up in margins due to new product launches in new geographies c) weak outlook for GE Triveni JV.
SOURCE: Data from D'Market via Quandl. Intraday data delayed 15 minutes.
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