View: Losing sheen. Downgrade to Accumulate.
Titan’s net revenue grew 14.4% YoY to `49.4bn in Q1FY20, below our estimate. We believe the growth in the jewellery segment will remain muted (low double digits) in Q2FY20E. Nevertheless, we anticipate an increase in growth in H2FY20E, due to new store additions, customer acquisition, and anticipated improvement in overall economy. Also, as Titan is one of the largest players in the organized industry, with attractive products, we believe it will emerge as a winner of the shift from unorganised to organised. Further, the trend of buying jewellery for fashion, instead of investment, will enhance premiumization. To factor in the below-expected earnings in Q1 and slowdown in Q2, we have revised our FY20E and FY21E EPS estimates downward to ` 19.5 (-8.7%) and `23.4 (-5.8%). We downgrade our rating to Accumulate, with TP of ` 1,172 (50x FY21E).