India GDP Q1 data LIVE updates: According to the economists, the GDP contraction for the first quarter is being pegged at an average 20 per cent with the de-growth range between 15.2 per cent and 25.5 per cent.India GDP Q1 Data Live Updates: As per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the April-June quarter (Q1) slipped by a sharp 23.9 per cent.
The data released by NSO, which comes under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), is vital as it will provide the first benchmark on the state of India’s economy after the pandemic.
The June quarter GDP data is the worst contraction in the history of the Indian economy since Independence. According to the economists surveyed by Bloomberg, Indiaâs GDP is estimated to have declined 18 per cent in the quarter ended June.
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"The June quarter GDP number came in worse than most estimates at -23.9 per cent YoY. Widespread and repeated lockdowns has resulted in this sharp fall. Construction contracting 50.3 per cent and Trade, hotel, transport, communication contracting 47 per cent are the two negative surprises. Investments too contracted 47.1 per cent. The numbers being slightly worse than expected could impact the market sentiments mildly. The RBI also cannot do much beyond what it has already done. Ball would now be in the court of the government to spur consumption by taking fiscal measures, where RBI may come in to help for smoothening the fund raise program.
The GDP numbers could upset the government's fiscal math that may force major changes in the public finance estimates.
Now the focus will shift to September quarter. Going by the July core infra number of -9.6 per cent, the September quarter may also record high single digit decline in GDP on a YoY basis. While the rural economy has offset the slowdown in urban areas in Q1 to some extent, rural recovery is unlikely to support such pace in subsequent quarters. One reason for this is that Covid-19 has started to penetrate rural areas at a fast pace since July.
India's recovery path appears a long and hard one. A mix of monetary and fiscal measures to prop up the economy has fallen short so far. Some innovative thinking on the part of Govt/RBI and some good providence are required to turn the tide quickly."
"Indian GDP growth rate contracting by 23.9 per cent was more or less expected. The economy was in a complete lockdown for nearly two months, and all the high-frequency indicators were pointing towards the fact that the country was heading towards one of the worst contractions. Consumption, the major driver of Indian GDP contracted by 27 per cent in the first quarter. Investment demand as measured by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) contracted by nearly 47 per cent. Investment growth has been in the negative territory for the last three quarters, and the pandemic induced crisis has only worsened the situation. Considering the uncertain economic scenario, investment growth would continue to be in the negative territory in the coming quarters."
"Indicating a sharp contraction in growth, the GDP number for Q1 of 20-21, has come at -23.90 per cent, a deep fall, the worst ever, which is the direct consequence of the pandemic and the lockdown. A fall close to -20 per cent was more or less expected by a number of market participants.
Even with some improvement in the economic variables in the coming three quarters, the growth for the whole year would be around -5 per cent or slightly higher for the whole year. The probability of this number being revised is quite high given the fact that there have been practical difficulties around data collection and estimation on manufacturing and industries, and consumer prices.
Except for agriculture across sectors including services, manufacturing, trade, etc. have shown an unprecedented fall. Whether it is private consumption or capital formation, the numbers are hugely negative, and would require more action from the government, though the government's fiscal position does not leave much room for further action.
The core sector numbers too indicate nothing different regarding the state of the economy. A demand or consumption-led recovery is crucial for the economy, and it may require measures by which the disposable income of people is enhanced."
“The growth rate for April to June quarter was expected to be bad but it turned out worse, a degrowth by 23.9 per cent is worse than the most bearish estimate. Positive agricultural output is the only positive element in the GDP print.
As the April-June quarter saw the maximum period of the national lockdown the degrowth was severe, going forward as the government re-opens the economy in phases, government spending, and festive season spending is expected to help the growth rate to be in the positive territory going forward.
While the RBI has done its part to help boost consumption and economy, a further rate cut may help boost credit offtake. The government may still have some more fire-power with further stimulus measures for specific sectors. Good monsoon, high agri output will help with a pickup in rural consumption. Government spending, reforms, and more measures to boost consumption is required to bring back growth on track..”
Former finance minister and senior Congress leader P Chidambaram hit out the BJP-led central government and termed the GDP numbers an “economic tragedy”, and said the “country was paying a heavy price” for the “nonchalant and uncaring” attitude of the Modi government.
“GDP in the first quarter has declined by a whopping 23.9 per cent. That means, about one quarter of the gross domestic output as on 30-6-2019 has been wiped out in the last 12 months. Another way of looking at it is, since the end of 2019-20, the gross domestic output has fallen by about 20 per cent,” Chidambaram said.
“The only sector that has grown is Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing at 3.4 per cent. The Finance Minister who blamed an ‘Act of God’ for the economic decline should be grateful to the farmers and the gods who blessed the farmers,” he added.
All the sectors except agriculture witnessed contractions during the April-June quarter of 2020-21, with construction witnessing a drop of a whopping 50.3 per cent while the manufacturing industry saw a 39.3 per cent fall. Apart from these two industries, electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services slipped 7 per cent. Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting contracted 47.0 per cent.
Only the agriculture, forestry and fishing industry witnessed a growth of 3.4 per cent in the June quarter, the data showed.
As per the MoSPI data, the gross value added (GVA) at basic price at constant terms during the June quarter shrunk 22.8 per cent. The GVA at Basic Price at Current Prices slipped 20.6 per cent in Q1 2020-21.
The June quarter GDP data at -23.9 per cent is the worst contraction in the history of the Indian economy. This is mainly because the central government on March 25 had ordered a complete lockdown of most of the manufacturing and service sectors owing to the spread of COVID-19. Only essential services such as food items and medicines were allowed during this period as the country tried to curb the spread of the virus across the country.
As per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the April-June quarter (Q1) slipped by a sharp 23.9 per cent.
The data released by NSO, which comes under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), is vital as it will provide the first benchmark on the state of India’s economy after the pandemic.
India’s economic growth slips to -23.9% in the first quarter (April-June) of 2020-21.
The National Statistical Office (NSO) will be releasing its GDP figures for the first quarter (April-June) of the financial year 2020-21 shortly. The data is vital as it will provide the first benchmark on the state of India’s economy after the pandemic.
Contracting for the fifth consecutive month, the output of eight core infrastructure sectors dropped by 9.6 per cent in July due to decline mostly in production of steel, refinery products and cement, news agency PTI reported.
The production of eight core sectors had expanded by 2.6 per cent in July 2019, data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry on Monday showed.
Barring fertiliser, all seven sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement and electricity -- recorded negative growth in July.
The benchmark equity indices on the BSE and National Stock Exchange (NSE) erased all of their morning gains and crashed into a sea of red on Monday after reports of fresh tensions in the India-China border in eastern Ladakh.
After climbing 542.86 points (1.38 per cent) and briefly reclaiming the 40,000-mark (touching an intraday high of 40,010.17), the S&P BSE Sensex crashed 839.02 points (2.13 per cent) to end at 38,628.29. During the late afternoon trade, the 30-share BSE benchmark had fallen as much as 1,071.42 points (2.72 per cent) to a hit a low of 38,395.89.
Likewise, the Nifty 50 too ended 305.15 points (2.62 per cent) lower at 11,342.45. In the early morning trade it had reached an intraday high of 11,794.25, which it soon erased and had slipped to 11,325.85.
The RBI refrained from providing a clear number for GDP growth or contraction but it did state that “an assessment of aggregate demand during the year so far suggests that the shock to consumption is severe, and it will take quite some time to mend and regain the pre-COVID-19 momentum”.
According to the central bank, private consumption is expected to lead the recovery when it takes hold, and government consumption is expected to continue pandemic-proofing of demand. “Private consumption has lost its discretionary elements across the board, particularly transport services, hospitality, recreation and cultural activities,” the RBI said in its Annual Report for 2019-20.
Though rural demand is expected to support economic recovery, it cannot substitute urban demand, India Ratings said in a note.
“The COVID-19 led business disruptions during end-March-May 2020 have been so severe for the production, supply/trade channels and the activities especially in sectors such as aviation, tourism, hotels and hospitality that FY21 GDP growth is expected to contract for the first time since FY’80. Although non-agricultural economic activities are slowly limping back, they are still much lower than pre-COVID-19 level,” it said.
“The first quarter bore the most brunt of the stringent lockdown in response to the pandemic, beyond which authorities weighed the trade-off between economic costs of extending the lockdown or prioritising health. This led to an incremental and gradual reopening at a varied pace across different states/ districts.
While Q1 data is backwards-looking, it was the likely nadir of the downcycle, with shallower contraction expected over the next two quarters. For the path ahead, sustainability of the recovery cycle is contingent on when the epidemic curve successfully flattens,” said Radhika Rao, Economist, DBS
As per the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), salaried jobs suffered the biggest hit during the lockdown, with a total loss estimated to be at 18.9 million during April-July.
The first quarter saw the strictest lockdowns across the country and chances are it will see the sharpest fall in economic activity in a long while.
The composition of growth (or de-growth) — in other words, which sector got hit the most — will set the tone for the rest of the year. The amount and nature of the damage will point to the type and magnitude of fiscal and monetary policy efforts required to revive the Indian economy.
Most analysts expect the economy to contract sharply. But the expected magnitude of contraction differs — sometimes substantially over specific sectors of the economy. Click here to read our explainer for more details.
Observers of the Indian economy keenly await the NSO data because it will provide the first benchmark of the state of the Indian economy after the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted it and forced the country into widespread and repeated lockdowns.
The National Statistical Office (NSO) will be releasing its GDP figures for the first quarter (April-June) of the financial year 2020-21 at 5:30 pm today. Owing to the coronavirus pandemic and the nationwide lockdown enforced due to it, the numbers are expected to be the worst since India started reporting quarterly data in 1996.