Near-term market correction unlikely; Reliance can go up 20%: Rahul Shah

Breather in midcap IT; Infosys and HCL Tech to emerge winners in near term, says Rahul Shah, V-P, Equity Advisory, Motilal Oswal Financial Services


How should one get into a capital protection mode at this point of time?
We can see revival in the overall economy. The broader data points like eway bills or toll collection data and so on show that the economy is going to be much stronger. Corporate numbers should also be good for this quarter. I do not think near term, there will be any selloff in the markets. I do not think near term any correction is likely for any of the sectors.

There was a little bit of disappointment post TCS results and it as well as other IT stocks have corrected. Is that a buying opportunity for you?
If you look at the IT stocks and the way the IT numbers have been, I think it was broadly in line but there has been 2% to 3% disappointment. So most of the analysts have downgraded it. My view is TCS has already done well in terms of price movement and valuation wise, it is fully valued in near term perspective.

But other IT companies like Infosys or Wipro have some more catching up to do. Similarly, midcap IT companies have done quite well recently and there could be some breather. But largecap names like Infy and HCL Tech will be the clear winners in near term.

Supermart is having a phenomenal run. Future Retail might be doing well based on hopes of out-of-court settlement with Amazon. But anything to do with retail has really perked up in trade. This is part of the reopening theme and I guess that rally still has a lot of legs?
The reopening theme has been very very successful in the last one month or so. Themes like aviation, hotels, and apparel have seen good momentum and the stocks have moved up anything between 15% and 20% in near term.

So retail plays like Avenue Supermarkets are obviously doing well even even during the lockdown. Obviously, the spending goes higher once the things open up and as we see that monsoons have been quite decent this year so the spending will be higher.

I would definitely buy Reliance in that space if I have to play the retail theme, there could be more upside in Reliance. The valuations are justifiable and the stock has moved up in the last couple of months. Another 15%-20% movement is still warranted from Reliance in near term.

Tata Group of stocks’ market caps are shattering all records. What would be your top pick when it comes to Tata Group stocks?
The Tata Group of stocks have done well but the themes of those stocks and the sector which they represent have also been doing quite well. Tata Motors, Titan, Tata Power, all have done well. I still feel that there could be another 20% upside in Tata Power from current levels is warranted.

What about Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel? Kumarmangalam Birla may put in money. Before Jio can launch its phone, Bharti Airtel is coming out with a cashback offer.It is being seen as ARPU accretive. Is excitement back in the telecom space?
Telecom was exciting last month as well and has been a carry forward. Last month, with the government’s announcement, we saw it will not be only two companies but Vodafone will also survive. But to play a clear winner, I would bet on Bharti and Reliance, not on Vodafone at this juncture.