After reporting a benign slippage rate over the past few quarters, SBIN has again reported an increase in slippage trajectory, reflecting the deterioration in the underlying lending environment. The bank has lowered its guidance on core RoA to ~0.6% (excluding NCLT write-backs) and increased the credit cost guidance to 1.4% for FY20. We cut our FY20/21 earnings estimates by 14%/11% to factor in higher credit cost/slippages. The bank’s core operating profitability is likely to improve, led by expansion in margins and cost control, which will help mitigate some credit cost pressures. We, thus, revise our target price to INR 380 (1.2x FY21E ABV). Maintain Buy.
The management continues to be confident that balance sheet has been repaired & guides for strong recovery (~| 17000 crore) and modest target of 12% credit growth. We factor in fresh fund raising of | 20000 crore in H2FY20E. We marginally raise slippages, thereby leading to higher provision which impacts our PAT estimates by ~12%/5% in FY20E/21E respectively. We maintain target price at | 400, valuing core bank at 1.5x FY21E ABV & subsidiary at |90, post 10% holdco discount, factoring in <2% slippage ratio, 0.6% RoA (vs.0.8% earlier) & 10-12% RoE guidance by management.
We have revised our NII estimates by 3.2%/3.2%, PPOP estimates by -0.5%/-2.9% and PAT estimates by -17.2%/-5.1% for FY20/FY21, respectively. We have valued the standalone entity at 0.9x FY21E P/ABV, ascribing a value of Rs83 for subsidiaries and revising our target price on it to Rs370 (from Rs430 earlier).
SBIN’s mostly in line operating performance in 1QFY20 was marred by higher than expected slippages. Additional stress and slower resolutions will delay the expected RoAA improvement. Maintain BUY. Our SOTP (1.3x Jun- 21E ABV of Rs 228 + Rs 101 sub value) is Rs 398. After sustained improvement over FY19, SBIN disappointed on asset quality in 1QFY20. Slower than expected resolution in NCLT cases, a buildup in anticipated stress and deteriorating macros are likely to postpone RoAA improvement (as credit costs rise). Our earnings estimates are highly sensitive to asset resolution outcomes. Nevertheless, the worst is long behind SBIN (in terms of asset quality).
SBI trades at 1.3x its FY2021E book value, which we believe is reasonable considering it to have better operating metrics in the PSU space. We have been conservative in our estimates, and, so, while the bank has revised its credit cost/ROA outlook, we maintain our FY2020E/ FY2021E earnings. Thus, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised PT of Rs. 380.
The incremental stress creates higher potential risk to asset quality and provisions impacting improvement in earnings, while stress from non-corporate also remains high especially Agri/SME. We factor in marginal hits to asset quality & earnings (increase CC to 195bps from 140bps for FY20) with revised TP of Rs369 (from Rs427) and retain BUY with valuations still being reasonable at 1.1x core ABV.