State Bank of India is India’s largest bank. The bank operates 21,929 branches globally and has a vast network of 58,567 ATMs/CDMs. It provides a wide range of financial services, such as insurance, credit cards and asset management, through its subsidiaries. Net interest income grew 17.7% YoY to Rs. 24,600cr while Domestic net interest margin (NIM) expanded 21bps QoQ/42bps YoY. Lower-cost CASA deposits improved 8.1% YoY, however CASA ratio declined 14bps YoY to 45.1%. Gross loans & advances rose 8.7% YoY, as domestic and foreign loans grew 8.4% and 10.1%, respectively. GNPA/NNPA ratio improved to 7.2%/2.8% in Q2FY20 (vs. 9.9%/4.8% in Q2FY9). Capital adequacy ratio elevated to 13.8% (+98bps YoY). We retain our Buy rating on SBI with a target price of Rs 398 (SOTP).
SBI hosted an investor day showcasing its business strategy and future roadmap in the medium term. Management remains highly focused on improving its core operating profit & reaching ROAs towards 1.0% by end of FY21. Key enablers will be (i) improving NIMs from lower cost of funds, lower interest reversals and risk based pricing on loans (ii) steady fee income generation & opex control below 10% or C/I of 45% (from current 50-55%) and (iii) credit cost of <100bps with slippages of 1.5% assuming LGDs of 50-60% in base line scenario. Bank on consolidated basis also sees huge value addition by subsidiaries in SBI eco system for non-lending financial products and will monetize the same ahead. Bank’s baseline scenario of PPOP Rs650bn & Rs750bn in FY20/FY21E can be achievable but we vary on ROAs of 0.9%-1.0% by FY21 as timing of provisions on new stressed assets will have to be upfront & write-back from recoveries can be delayed despite large cushion available. We retain BUY with revised TP of Rs413 (from Rs396) as we slightly up valuations in subsidiaries with bank estimates unchanged.
State Bank of India (SBI) reported its 2QFY20 results with the key pointers being: (1) Net reduction in GNPAs was Rs. 68.58 bn, marking a continued trend in asset quality improvement. Exceptional gains were used for upfront provisioning and (2) NIM expansion has been a function of declining cost of deposits as well as increasing yields (see detailed analyst meet takeaways on page 2 for significant incremental colour). Per se, on the key P&L items, SBI posted NII growth of 18% YoY at Rs246.0bn, PPOP growth of 19% YoY at Rs147.1bn and PAT growth of 219% YoY at Rs 30.1bn. We have revised our estimates for FY20/FY21/FY22 and retained Buy rating on SBI, revising our target price to Rs365 (from Rs399 earlier), valuing the standalone entity at 0.8x H1FY22E P/ABV and ascribing a value of Rs96 for subsidiaries.
A qtr mostly full of positives, 2Q saw improvement in SBIN’s asset quality as slippages halved and NIM, PCR further expanded. However, there’s more than meets the eye. Maintain BUY with an SOTP of Rs 389 (1.3x Sept-21E ABV of Rs 232 + Rs 87 sub value). While SBIN surprised with a sharp improvement in performance across fronts (reduction in reported stress, NIM expansion and better coverage), we are a tad weary of the sustainability of the pace of this improvement. No material progress has been on large IBC cases and further standard exposure to vulnerable sectors/entities does not bode well for stress; the recent spate of ratings downgrades does not help, either. Still, the worst in terms of asset quality is long behind. This underpins our BUY.
SBI’s earnings of Rs30.1bn (PLe: Rs26.3bn) was better as (i) not adopting lower tax rate hence not resulting in markdown in DTA (ii) relatively strong NII & recovery from w.off. Key positive was much lower fresh slippages of Rs88.0bn with all segments declining especially retail & corporate. Also o/s SMA & stress a/c under new resolution framework saw marginal decline to 1.4% of loans v/s 1.5% in Q1FY20. Operationally bank has been improving with near industry growth & upward NIMs trajectory, opex control and much better PCR and hence, has the ability to absorb hits from existing stress assets, although if additional assets come under stress earnings will see slower recovery. We retain BUY with revised TP of Rs396 (from Rs388) on higher SBI life share in SOTP.
After reporting a benign slippage rate over the past few quarters, SBIN has again reported an increase in slippage trajectory, reflecting the deterioration in the underlying lending environment. The bank has lowered its guidance on core RoA to ~0.6% (excluding NCLT write-backs) and increased the credit cost guidance to 1.4% for FY20. We cut our FY20/21 earnings estimates by 14%/11% to factor in higher credit cost/slippages. The bank’s core operating profitability is likely to improve, led by expansion in margins and cost control, which will help mitigate some credit cost pressures. We, thus, revise our target price to INR 380 (1.2x FY21E ABV). Maintain Buy.
The management continues to be confident that balance sheet has been repaired & guides for strong recovery (~| 17000 crore) and modest target of 12% credit growth. We factor in fresh fund raising of | 20000 crore in H2FY20E. We marginally raise slippages, thereby leading to higher provision which impacts our PAT estimates by ~12%/5% in FY20E/21E respectively. We maintain target price at | 400, valuing core bank at 1.5x FY21E ABV & subsidiary at |90, post 10% holdco discount, factoring in <2% slippage ratio, 0.6% RoA (vs.0.8% earlier) & 10-12% RoE guidance by management.
We have revised our NII estimates by 3.2%/3.2%, PPOP estimates by -0.5%/-2.9% and PAT estimates by -17.2%/-5.1% for FY20/FY21, respectively. We have valued the standalone entity at 0.9x FY21E P/ABV, ascribing a value of Rs83 for subsidiaries and revising our target price on it to Rs370 (from Rs430 earlier).
SBIN’s mostly in line operating performance in 1QFY20 was marred by higher than expected slippages. Additional stress and slower resolutions will delay the expected RoAA improvement. Maintain BUY. Our SOTP (1.3x Jun- 21E ABV of Rs 228 + Rs 101 sub value) is Rs 398. After sustained improvement over FY19, SBIN disappointed on asset quality in 1QFY20. Slower than expected resolution in NCLT cases, a buildup in anticipated stress and deteriorating macros are likely to postpone RoAA improvement (as credit costs rise). Our earnings estimates are highly sensitive to asset resolution outcomes. Nevertheless, the worst is long behind SBIN (in terms of asset quality).
SBI trades at 1.3x its FY2021E book value, which we believe is reasonable considering it to have better operating metrics in the PSU space. We have been conservative in our estimates, and, so, while the bank has revised its credit cost/ROA outlook, we maintain our FY2020E/ FY2021E earnings. Thus, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised PT of Rs. 380.
The incremental stress creates higher potential risk to asset quality and provisions impacting improvement in earnings, while stress from non-corporate also remains high especially Agri/SME. We factor in marginal hits to asset quality & earnings (increase CC to 195bps from 140bps for FY20) with revised TP of Rs369 (from Rs427) and retain BUY with valuations still being reasonable at 1.1x core ABV.
Core operating performance is expected to improve in FY20E. NPL recovery in IBC cases and gains from subsidiaries stake sale would push return ratios in FY20. We expect an ROA of 60bp in FY20E and 80bp in FY21E. We reiterate Accumulate with revised TP of INR 352 from INR 332 and determine SBI (standalone banking entity) value at INR 274 from INR 257 at 1.3x (unchanged) one-year forward P/ABV and INR 78 (from INR 75) towards key subsidiaries.
State Bank of India is currently trading at a P/Adj.BV multiple of 1.16x/1.04x on FY20E/FY21E book value and we expect the valuation of the bank to improve on back of its improving ROE outlook and asset quality metrics. The bank’s expanding retail franchisee supports asset yields on back of high margin lending opportunities in home loan segment, while bank’s fee Income engines gain momentum over time. We apply a P/Adj.BV multiple of 1.33x to the FY21 adj. BVPS of INR 183 and arrive at a target price of INR 351 per share using SOTP approach, an upside of 14.3% over the CMP. Accordingly, we assign an “Accumulate” rating.
The management is confident that balance sheet has been repaired and has guided for strong recovery (~| 17000 crore) in the coming year with modest target of 12% credit growth. We factor in fresh fund raising of | 20000 crore in H2FY20E. We upgrade the target price to | 400 from | 385, valuing at 1.5x FY21E ABV, factoring in higher profit estimates and improved (0.8%) RoE (12-13%) guidance. We reiterate BUY on dwindling asset quality woes.
While SBIN’s profits were hit in 4QFY19 by higher provisions, best-in-class coverage was a positive outcome. A possible fund-raise will be book accretive. Maintain BUY with an SOTP of Rs 383 (1.3x Mar-21E ABV of Rs 222 + Rs 95 sub value).
SBI’s strong liability franchise and better capital position differentiate it from other PSU peers. Moreover, industry best cost of funds also helps lower asset side risks. Upwardly revising our earnings estimates by 15%/18% for FY20E/21E owing to moderation in credit costs and lower slippages, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs390 (from Rs370 earlier), based on 1.4x FY21E adjusted PBV and the value of its subsidiaries, implying a FY21 P/ABV of 1.6x.
The credit cycle is showing signs of a recovery, as evident in the declining size of SMA-1 & 2 accounts, which stood at INR77.6b (0.4% of advances). Steady trends in the core portfolio, along with healthy recoveries/write-backs via NCLT, will likely drive a further improvement in asset quality over FY20/21. Pick-up in loan growth and resilient margins (guidance of 3.25%) are likely to keep revenue growth buoyant. This, coupled with stable opex (as one-off provisions are largely done away with), is likely to drive healthy earnings growth. Almost every lever of earnings is turning in favor of a big rebound after a dismal four-year earnings holiday. The key concern to watch would be overall macroeconomic slowdown in recent times and any new stress sectors that may impact the credit cost recovery. Our net earnings see a big upgrade (a) 31.8% for FY20 to factor in NCLT-related provisioning write- back and (b) by a modest 2.3% for FY21. We currently value the stock at 1.2x P/ABV and arrive at a target price of INR380. The stock is primed for a further re-rating as the credit cost curve keeps shifting down. Maintain Buy.
SBI trades at 1.2x its FY2021E book value, which we believe is reasonable considering it to have better operating metrics in PSU space. We thus maintain our Buy rating on the stock with revised PT of 390.
We have revised our NII estimates by 3.4%/3.3%, PPOP estimates by -5.1%/-5.3% and PAT estimates by 0.3%/0.4% for FY20/FY21, respectively. We have valued the standalone entity at 0.9x FY21E P/ABV, ascribing a value of Rs75 for subsidiaries and revising our target price on it to Rs373 (from Rs366 earlier).
SBI’s core performance was better off than expectations on back of higher other income led by continued strong recovery from W.off a/c, decent NII and relatively good opex control. Earnings were dented on back of sharp provision rise based on ageing of certain legacy NPAs in the NCLT List -1 taking PCR to ~100%. Also, asset quality improved on back of lower slippages (Rs79.6bn or 1.6% of loans) v/s expectations and also incorporating few of the recent stress names. Going ahead, higher recoveries & lower slippages should improve asset quality, while better PCR of +60% (70% on corporate book and 93% on NCLT) should translate to normalization in credit cost, helping improve return ratios. We retain BUY with revised TP of Rs427 (from 361) based on 1.5x Mar-21 (rolled over from Sep-20) and Rs88 for subs.
Banks, especially PSU's in the past months gone by has faced multi- fold problems. Financial as well as liquidity crunches & above all stringent norms for banks marked panic over head of many. Despite the stated reasons, we recommend to BUY SBI which delivered se- quential growth and improved fundamentals beating our calculations and is available at attractive valuation. Estimating P/BV at 1.20x (Est. 5yr avg.) for FY20, the estimated share price turns around to Rs 319.