Reliance Industries (RIL) continued to deliver steady earnings with Q1FY20 consolidated PAT at INR101bn beating estimate by 2.3%. EBITDA at INR208bn (adjusted for gains from Ind-AS 116: INR4.8bn) was broadly in line with estimate. Key highlights: 1) RIL has announced that the INR252bn investment by Brookfield in the tower InvIT will be used primarily for repayment of existing debt; 2) it has expanded coker capacity to leverage IMO, enabling it to convert HSFO in to gasoil; 3) refining in Q1FY20 delivered a solid beat on EBITDA (6% above estimate) despite lower GRM (GRM: USD8.1/bbl, estimate: 8.3/bbl) due to surge in refinery utilization; 4) petchem beat estimate 5% due to ramp up of cheaper ethane imports replacing costlier naptha and propane; and 5) RJIO’s earnings came in line while capex continues to remain elevated accounting for bulk of the INR220bn invested during the quarter. With no clarity on start of petcoke gasifier, we revise down refining and petchem earnings (lower polymer margins) leading to 4.5% cut in FY20E EPS for RIL and 3% cut in TP to INR1,652/share (INR1701 earlier). Maintain ‘BUY’.
Cut earnings, maintain Hold: We cut our estimates for FY20/21E by 10%/9% respectively to factor in lower GRMs. Our PT cut is cushioned by increased in value of retail to Rs132 (Rs117 earlier). We maintain our rating to ACCUMULATE.
Maintain Buy rating with revised PT of Rs. 1,630: We have fine tuned our FY2020E EPS and FY2021E EPS to factor in higher subscriber additions, higher earnings for retail business and lower refining margins. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised price target (PT) of Rs. 1,630 as we ascribe higher value to the telecom and retail business backed by higher multiple and upward revision in earnings estimates for the segments. We believe that deleveraging of consolidated balance sheet with transfer of telecom infrastructure to infrastructure investment trusts and potential stake sale in downstream business (as per media reports) along with continued high growth in retail and telecom businesses would remain a key re-rating catalyst for the stock in near to medium term. At CMP, the stock is trading at 16.8x its FY2020E EPS and 15.2x its FY2021E EPS.
We upgrade RIL to BUY after the 4QFY19 beat. We believe RIL will be the biggest beneficiary of the IMO regulations, as it is the most complex refiner globally. Hiving off R-Jio’s optical fiber and tower assets will unlock value by reducing attributable consolidated debt.RIL is creating value via (1) Transition from a low-multiple refining business to the consumer-oriented, digitally fired R-Jio, (2) Monetisation and deleveraging achieved by hiving off fiber and tower assets, (3) GRMs rising post the new IMO regulations (est. USD 9.2-12.0/bbl over FY19- 21E). Our SoTP is Rs 1,535/sh (7.5x EV/e for refining, 9x EV/e for petchem, Rs 6.0/sh for domestic E&P, 1x EV/capital for Shale, 25x EV/e for Retail and 10x EV/e for Telecom).
Valuations We value the company using SOTP valuation, thereby, valuing refining & petchem business at 7.0x FY21E EBITDA & telecom at 7.0x FY21E EBIDTA to arrive at a target price of INR 1638/share indicating 18.2% upside. We strongly recommend to add the stock on dips with an investment horizon of 1 year.
Ourreport‘Weaknessaheadinrefiningandpetrochem’(releasedon2nd Apr’19) echoes with management’s guidance of expanding supply glut in both refining and petrochem in 1-2 years, which would keep the core sector performance under pressure. CapexintensityremainshighwithtotalinvestmentofINR327bin4QFY19 and INR1,345b in FY19 (+70% YoY). There is no specific guidance on capex. However, the petcoke gasifiers appear to have been commissioned fully, which should decrease capex, at least in the standalone business.
We estimate RIL’s EBITDA to clock a robust 19% CAGR over FY19-23 driven by 14% CAGR for refining and 40% and 29% for retail and telecom, respectively, off a low base. Hence, we revise our TP to INR1,636 (INR1,435 earlier; based on SOTP). We reiterate ‘BUY/SO’. At CMP, the stock is trading at 7.0x FY21E EV/EBITDA.
Global refining and petrochem peers are trading at ~6x FY20 EV/EBITDA. We value RIL’s refining and petrochemical segments at 7.5x – the premium here reflects the company’s superior capability to manage the crude basket, refinery yields, hedging and multiple feedstock for its petrochem segment. We value RIL using SOTP. We use 7.5x EV/EBITDA for refining/petrochem, DCF for E&P, 2.5x EV/sales for Reliance Retail and DCF for RJio. We roll over our valuation to FY21. With a revised TP of INR1,457, we downgrade our rating to Neutral due to limited upside in the stock.