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We tweak our estimates for FY21/22E to factor in FY20 actual performance. PLNG is a play on India’s rising LNG imports supported by soft spot LNG prices. We like PLNG’s business model given high earnings visibility. We see limited competition to PLNG’s well-entrenched reach in the LNG business. Reiterate BUY with a revised DCF based PT of Rs384 (Rs378 earlier).
We maintain BUY on Petronet LNG Ltd (PLNG) as one of our top large cap oil&gas picks, based on our trimmed TP of Rs319 that offers 65% upside from CMP post the 30% crash in the stock in the last three months. We have rolled over our TP from September 2020 to March 2021. We have cut our SOTP-based TP by 4.5% post 5.3%/12.8%/6.8% cut in FY20E/FY21E/FY22E earnings due to likely hit in volume following the mandatory threeweek national lockdown to contain the spread of COVID19. We have cut our LNG volume estimate by 15% in 1QFY21E and taken a haircut in 4QFY20 to value the company on potential downside risk to volume on two counts i) The PSU off-takers not lifting contracted volume due to their customers being forced to cut operations and ii) Potential disruption to shipping, unloading and regassification operations, although management has taken all steps to run its LNG facility uninterrupted even during the current country-wide lockdown. The risk to shipping due to COVID19 impact is worrying as this could lead to disruption in gas imports, which meet about 50% of demand. On a positive note, our channel checks reveal no signs yet of any impending cuts in shipping of oil & gas cargoes.
Petronet LNG has reported healthy YoY growth in 3QFY20 – volume increased 15.3% and PAT grew by 15.8%. The results were a beat – Revenue up 2.4%, PAT up 11% vs. NBIE estimates. We are marginally raising FY20E earnings by 5.3% and maintain BUY with a target price (TP) of Rs334 (27.3% upside from CMP) on (i) attractive risk-reward at 11.6x PE on SEP 21E (ii) prospects for ramp-up in Kochi from FY21 based on the planned completion of the Kochi- Mangalore pipeline by 4QFY20, as confirmed by GAIL management to PLNG and the benefits of the 2.5mn TPA expansion in Dahej in full swing from 2QFY20. During the post-result conference call, the management said that the company was discussing gas sourcing from Tellurium as well as other LNG suppliers, and is aiming to lock in long term LNG contracts at current prices of around US$4-5/mmbtu. This will attract demand from segments, including Power and CGD. PLNG plans to invest Rs1.26bn in FY21 on developing 15-20 retail gas stations to sell LNG as fuel for trucks, which will enjoy long hauls between refueling and 20-30% cost savings. The long-term strategy is to build its LNG business, including new terminals, around developing the supply chain to link gas sources with markets. Overall, the management is upbeat on long-term growth in Indian gas demand based on the new supplies at prevailing LNG prices, expansion of gas pipelines and new markets like LNG auto fuel.
We expect the completion of Kochi-Mangalore pipeline to boost the utilization. With capacity expanding in both the terminals, we estimate the earnings to grow at a healthy 15.5% CAGR over FY19-22E. We believe the increasing gas demand from the country is expected to drive growth. Hence, we reiterate our BUY rating on the stock with a revised roll forward target price of Rs. 321 based on ~14.5x FY22E adj. EPS.
Valuation - Maintain Buy with unchanged PT of Rs. 345: We have marginally lowered our FY2020 earnings estimates to factor in slightly lower re-gas volumes assumption at Dahej (given lower-than-expected Dahej utilisation rate in Q3FY2020) and have largely maintained our FY2021-FY2022 earnings estimates. The ramp-up of utilisation rate at Kochi terminal (after commissioning of Kochi-Mangaluru pipeline by March 2020) and further capacity expansion at Dahej to 19.5mmt (from 17.5 mmt currently) in the next 2-3 years would ensure continuous volume growth for PLNG for the next couple of years. PLNG’s valuation of 11x FY2022E EPS seems attractive given strong volume-led earnings visibility (we expect an EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 13%/8% over FY2020E-FY2022E) and robust RoE of 29-30%. Hence, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with an unchanged price target of Rs. 345.
Delay in commissioning of Kochi-Mangalore pipeline (by Mar’20 now) and likely downward revision of Kochi regasification tariffs (from Rs104 to Rs79/mmbtu) could impact net profit by ~4%. However, Kochi terminal likely to touch utilisation levels to 30% in FY21. We expect stellar operating performance will lead to 8% CAGR in earnings over FY20E-FY22E. Further, PLNG hiked tariffs by 5% at Dahej and Kochi terminal. At CMP, the stock trades at 12.8x (below long-term 1-yr forward average 15.8x) of FY21 EPS. Further, we expect its RoCE/RoE to improve from 23%/22% in FY19 to 25%/24% in FY21E, as the Company is likely to sustain consistent growth in EBITDA and PAT over the next 2 years. We maintain HOLD recommendation on the stock with a DCF- based Target Price of Rs296.
We lower our estimates for FY20-22E by 2-8% to factor in the negative impact of lease rental accounting charges. PLNG is a play on India’s rising LNGimports supported by benign spot LNG prices. We like PLNG’s business model given high earnings visibility. We see limited competition to PLNG’s well-entrenched reach in the LNG business. Reiterate BUY with a revised DCF based PT of Rs388 (Rs352 earlier) given higher operating income.
Valuation - Maintain Buy with revised PT of Rs. 345: We have fine-tuned our FY2020E EPS and increased FY2021E EPS to factor in 5% escalation for Dahej re-gas tariffs. We have also introduced our FY2022E EPS of Rs. 23.9. We expect PLNG to be biggest beneficiary of rising share of LNG in India’s overall gas consumption mix, as a timely ramp-up of capacities (recently expanded Dahej capacity to 17.5 mmt and plans to further expand capacity to 19.5 mmt in the next 2-3 years, by setting up two storage tanks and a jetty) and ramp- up of volumes at Kochi terminal would ensure continued volume growth in the next 2-3 years. We thus expect an EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 12%/8% over FY2020E-FY2022E along with a robust RoE of ~29-30% for PLNG. The stock is also trading at attractive valuation of 13x FY2021E EPS and 11.6x FY2022E EPS. Hence, we maintain our Buy rating on PLNG with a revised PT of Rs. 345 as we roll over our valuation to FY2022E EPS.
We have increased our FY2020 earnings estimates to factor in higher re-gas volumesat Dahej and a lower effective tax rate. We have also fine-tuned our FY2021 earnings estimates to reflect a marginally lower utilisation ratefor the Kochi terminal (given a slight delay in construction of Kochi-Mangalore gas pipeline). We believe that PLNG is well-placed to benefitfrom rising gas demand, supported by its recent capacity expansion to 17.5 mmt at the Dahej terminal and plans to further expand capacity to 19.5 mmt in the next 2-3 years by setting up two storage tanks and a jetty. PLNG’s strong volume-led earnings visibility (we expect a 16% earnings CAGR over FY19-FY21E) and superior RoE of 28-30% make it an attractive investment proposition in the gas utilities space. Hence, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised price target of Rs. 330 (valued at 16x FY2021E EPS of Rs. 20.5).
Petronet LNG has reported healthy volume and close to 25% growth in PAT adjusted for prior period tax write backs and exception expense. We are marginally raising EPS estimates and TP by 7.6% to Rs336 (+17.4% from CMP) and maintain BUY on (i) attractive risk reward at 13.2x PE FY21E (ii) prospects for ramp up in Kochi from FY21 once the Kochi -Mangalore pipeline is completed (likely by Q4FY20) and iii) the benefits of the 2.5mn TPA expansion in Dahej operating in full swing from 2QFY20. We also see the company sustaining healthy free cashflows at more than Rs39bn over FY21-FY22E. During the post-result conference call, management again reiterated its stand that the deal with Tellurium is non-binding, while adding that it will be evaluated by an external consultant before the Board takes a final decision. PLNG is also open to pursuing projects in Bangladesh – pending a tender, while the Sri Lanka project is at discussion stage. Management also added that the company is likely to use internal resources for future financial investments, including any equity stake in Tellurium’s LNG project that will be capped at between US$500mn – US$1bn.
Petronet LNG provides comfort on the business model and remains a structural story of India’s increasing gas demand. With India continuing to be short of natural gas supply, Petronet LNG is expected to benefit as the primary play on increasing usage of LNG. Petronet’s deal with Tellurian to buy stake and import LNG is a non-binding MoU and can be completed by end of FY20. The company will benefit from low tax rates but due to anticipated competition on account of upcoming new terminals, we value Petronet LNG at 15x FY21E EPS of | 21 to arrive at a target price of rs 315 with a HOLD rating.
We tweak our estimates for FY20/21E to factor in lower tax rates even as we leave the operational numbers unchanged. PLNG is a play on India’s rising LNG imports supported by benign spot LNG prices. We like PLNG’s business model given high earnings visibility. We see limited competition to PLNG’swell-entrenched reach in the LNG business. Reiterate BUY with a DCF based PT of Rs352 (Rs338 earlier).
We are initiating coverage on Petronet LNG (PLNG), India’s leading liquefied natural gas (LNG) company, with a Buy based on our DCF-based target price of Rs312 ( +21% from CMP). PLNG is India’s market leader in LNG imports and distribution of Re- gasified LNG (RLNG) with a capacity of 22.5mn tonne/year.
Higher gas adoption from industries and the power sector will likely support volume growth for PLNG. We believe that, due to the Kochi-Mangalore pipeline and Dahej expansion, PLNG’s total volume could grow by ~9/7% in FY20/21. We expect EBITDA growth of ~27%/16% in FY20/21. Cash utilization for the company has been a challenge, though we expect the dividend payout to remain strong.We factor in the recent corporate tax benefit announced by the government in our model, which lead to EPS change of ~12% for FY20/21. As a result, we revise our target price from earlier INR305 to INR336. The stock trades at 11.0x FY21 EPS of INR21.4 and 7.1x FY21 EV/EBITDA. We value the stock using DCF (WACC: 11.2%, terminal growth: 3%). We reiterate PLNG as our top pick in the sector with an upside of ~33% to the current market price.
With growing energy consumption in line with GDP growth rate of the country and as the GOI aims to significantly increase Natural Gas share in the market. Total demand of the gas across different sectors is expect to increase to 654 MMSCMD by FY2026-27.Also Dahej terminal in Gujarat, meets ~40% of India’s gas requirements and around75-80% of LNG import in the country. Hence, we estimate PAT to grow at 15.2% FY19- 21E CAGR and EBITDA margin to improve to 9.8% by FY21E. We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 267 based on 14x FY21E adj. EPS.
Factoring in the aforementioned volume positives, we expect total volume growth of ~7% to 17.8mmtpa in FY20 and ~9% to 19.5mmtpa in FY21 with improved utilization at both Dahej and Kochi. We expect EBITDA growth of ~27%/16% in FY20/21. The stock trades at 15.0x FY20E EPS of INR16.0. We value PLNG on DCF (WACC: 12.0%, TGR: 3%) to arrive at a fair value of INR305, implying an upside of 27%. Reiterate Buy.
Petronet LNG provides comfort on the business model and remains astructural story of India’s increasing gas demand. With India continuing tobe short of natural gas supply, Petronet LNG will benefit as the primary play on increasing usage of LNG. However, due to anticipated competition on account of upcoming new terminals, we value Petronet LNG at 13x FY21E EPS of | 18 to arrive at a price target of | 235 with a HOLD rating.
Remains best play on rising LNG demand We lower our estimates to factor delay in commissioning Kochi pipeline and annual report updation. PLNG is a play on India’s rising LNG importssupported by benign spot LNG prices. We prefer PLNG’s business modelgiven high earnings visibility and perceive limited competition to its well- entrenched reach within the LNG business. Reiterate BUY with a DCF based PT of Rs306 (unchanged) on roll over.
Valuation - Maintain Buy with unchanged PT of Rs. 270: PLNG has superior RoE of 24-26%, 5.2% FCF field in FY2020E, de-risked business model and earnings growth visibility. Hence, we believe PLNG deserves a valuation premium compared with regulated utility companies. In our view, PLNG is trading at an attractive valuation of 13.1x its FY2021E EPS. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with an unchanged PT of Rs. 270. Moreover, in the absence of any significant capex in FY2020E, PLNG may surprise with dividend payout similar to FY2019 level of 70% and, thus, could result in healthy dividend yield of 4-5%.
Despite a disappointing Q4, we remain positive on the long-term earnings outlook of PLNG. The incremental volumes from Dahej expansion and Kochi terminal towards H2FY20 along with its annual 5% hike could contribute to strong revenue growth. Additionally, the oversupply of NG may keep spot prices under pressure which could lead to higher demand from the currently sluggish power sector. The management is also looking at global opportunities and any scope can help in set avenues for higher growth. We expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 9.9% over FY19-21E and EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 13.4% over FY19-21E. At a CMP of INR 224, PLNG is trading at an attractive valuation of 13.1x FY20E EPS and 11.7x FY21E EPS. We maintain our P/E-based multiple target price of INR 317.0 (potential upside – 41.5% ). We maintain BUY rating on the stock.
Further, we expect its RoCE/RoE to improve from 22%/23% in FY19 to 23%/26% in FY21E, as it is likely to sustain consistent growth in EBITDA and PAT over the next 2 years. InFY19, the company has paid dividend of Rs10/sh, implies dividend yield of 4.3% and guided the same dividend payout (~65%) for FY20 if the company do not invest in international projects. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with revised DCF-based Target Price of Rs260.
We assume total volume growth of ~7%/~9% in FY20/21 with competition. concerns having subsided and delays in ramp-up of domestic gas production. The stock trades at 12.1x FY20E EPS of INR18.5. Modeling in capex guidance of INR6b for FY20 in line with the company’s guidance, we value PLNG on DCF (WACC: 12.0%, TGR: 3%) to arrive at fair value of INR300 (from INR315). Reiterate Buy, with an implied upside of ~34% to the current market price.
We reiterate Accumulate and slightly raise our TP to INR 258 from INR 253 on lower FY20E net debt after adjusting the model for FY19 reported balance sheet. Our TP is based on a DCF method. We ascribe long-term Dahej utilization expectations at ~109% (unchanged) and a cost of equity at 12.3% (unchanged).
Petronet LNG provides comfort on the business model and remains astructural story of India’s increasing gas demand. With India continuing tobe short of natural gas supply, Petronet LNG will benefit as the primary play on increasing usage of LNG in the long term. However, in the near term, on account of lower ramp-up in volumes, we value Petronet LNG at 13x FY21E EPS of Rs 18.9 to arrive at a price target of Rs 245 with a HOLD rating.
We maintain our estimates for FY20/21E. PLNG is a play on India’s rising LNG imports supported by benign spot LNG prices. We like PLNG’s businessmodel given high earnings visibility and see limited competition to its well- entrenched reach in the LNG business. Reiterate BUY with a DCF based PT of Rs306 (unchanged).
Spot LNG prices have weakened amid rising supply glut. We expect downward pressure to remain with mega expansions like Mozambique, Canada, Qatar and Russia in the offing.n Cash utilization remains a challenge though. None of the major projects are expected to commence any time sooner. Management has guided that it may not expose itself to upstream, which is a cause of constant worry for investors. n In the meantime, we expect dividend payout to remain strong. The stock trades at 11.3x FY21 EPS of INR21.1 and 6.7x FY21 EV/EBITDA. n We value the stock using DCF (WACC: 12%, terminal growth: 3%). With a target price of INR315, we reiterate Buy on PLNG.
Valuation – Maintain Buy with unchanged PT of Rs. 270: PLNG’s stock price has rallied by ~11% in the past three months, given improved prospects for higher Dahej terminal utilisation supported by favourable LNG economics (which would aid in switching over to LNG from FO by the industrial sector). Moreover, with Dahejterminalexpansionnearingcompletion and likely ramp-up of utilisation at loss-making Kochi terminal in H2FY2020, the company provides decent volume growth visibility. Hence, we remain confident on earnings visibility (expect an 11% earnings CAGR over FY2019E-FY2021E) along with healthy RoE of ~21%. Thus, we maintain our Buy rating on PLNG with an unchanged price target (PT) of Rs. 270 (14.5x its FY2021E EPS). At the CMP, the stock is trading at 14.9x its FY2020E EPS and 13.3x its FY2021E EPS.
Global LNG trade stood at 316mmt in 2018. Comparatively, 35.5mmt of LNG liquefaction capacity is expected to be added in 2019 alone. We expect spot LNG prices to remain cheaper than oil and boost consumption. Continuous delays in domestic gas production projects combined with lack of visibility for upcoming LNG terminals are likely to favor Petronet. Near-term triggers are the completion of the Kochi-Mangalore pipeline and the Dahej expansion. Petronet is currently trading at 12.5x FY20 EPS of INR17.4 and 7.6x EV/EBITDA. Return ratios are likely to stand at ~23-25% in FY20/21. We value the stock at INR311, using DCF (WACC: 12%, terminal growth: 3.0%).
SOURCE: Data from D'Market via Quandl. Intraday data delayed 15 minutes.
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