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Long Term Win in Options Selling & Buying:

(A Different Prospects with Stats)

In an Equity Trade, We Analyse Price, which makes it a 50-50 Game to win or lose. In Options Trading We have to add a Factor: Time. So Now Probabilities depends on 2 Factors:

Time & Price.

So I give equal weightage to both Factors: In order to win one needs to understand both in the long term. that divides probability 50% Factor for Price & 50% for Time.

Time Favors: Options Sellers, & works against Options Buyers, However Price does not affect it. Hence when both Factors are used in Analysis, The Probability gets weightage with Time Factor Support to Options Sellers.

Win Prob of Options Sellers = 50%(T) + 25%(P) = 75%

Win Prob of Options Buyers = 25%

The Math here might not be 100% correct but Logic is.

I hope it will help understanding what your weapon for long term should be in Options Buying and Selling. Trade Safe