1 MOTILALOFS share price target reports by brokerages below. See what is analyst's view on MOTILALOFS share price forecast, rating, estimates, valuation and prediction behind the target. You may use these research report forecasts for long-term to medium term for your investment or trades in 2020.
Services HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF & Thomson Reuters Tough Year Ahead For 4QFY20, broking segment PAT was hit by expansion costs and declined 7.8% QoQ, while steep MTM hit on AUMs hit the AMC as PAT declined 12.9% QoQ. Management sold bad loans to reduce NPLs, while slippages remained low resulting in the housing finance business delivering a PAT growth of 117.3/9.3% YoY/QoQ. Large MTM loss of Rs 3.5bn on the firm’s treasury, however resulted in a consolidated (ex. MOHL) net loss of Rs 2.7bn. We reduce our estimates but retain BUY with a 5.2% lower TP of Rs 633, as core (broking and AMC) profit growth outlook weakens for FY21E.
Driven by higher than expected treasury income (Rs 270mn, -20.4% QoQ and capital markets PBT (Rs 653mn, - 6.8/+9.6% YoY/QoQ), MOFS (ex-MOHL) reported a PBT of Rs 1.44bn (+7.1% vs. est.). RPAT (ex-MOHL) of Rs 1.54bn was 3.85x/37.2% YoY/QoQ mainly due to tax reversal. We marginally tweak our estimates and retain NEUTRAL with TP of Rs 645.
MOFS (ex-MOHL) reported an in-line APAT of Rs 1.12bn (-3.2% vs. est). APAT for AMC/capital markets segment were at Rs 409/356mn (-8.5/45.6% YoY). Difficult macros drive our earning cuts; retain NEUTRAL with TP of Rs 545.With significant deterioration in macros, we anticipate a substantial slowdown in all the business verticals over at least the next 2 quarters. For the AMC business, we are concerned about fund raising, fee renegotiations and regulatory clampdown impacting growth, while for broking we are wary of increased competition. Lastly, despite much of the negatives in MOHL being factored in, the business needs to display scalability and improvement in asset quality. Challenging macros compel us to downgrade our FY20E/21E earnings (ex-MOHL) by 16.3/16.7%; we also cut our multiples for the AMC business to 17x (-15%) and thus maintain a NEUTRAL with a TP of 545 (+9.3%).
Sailing against the wind : Led by treasury gains and IB deal win, MOFS (ex-MOHL) reported APAT of Rs 1.38bn (+21.7% vs. est). Performance at the relatively structural businesses (broking + AMC) was in-line as difficult fund raising and highly competitive broking environment persist. Despite MOFS being a high quality franchise, tough macros compel our SELL rating with TP of Rs 650 (20x/10x AMC/Capital Markets FY21E PAT).
Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFS) runs India’s largest PMS (AUM Rs 150bn), is an emerging MF (rank 16) and is 8th among retail brokers. The group has investments of Rs 19.8bn, of which ~82% is invested in own funds. MOFS has a differentiated client franchise and will gain from financialisation of savings. We initiate coverage with a NEUTRAL rating and SoTP of Rs 611 (+7.6%).
SOURCE: Data from D'Market via Quandl. Intraday data delayed 15 minutes.
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