Outlook & Valuation: KMB has strengthened its liability profile with increased share of granular retail loans and sharp rise in CASA over the years. Moreover, its conservative lending and healthy performance across the asset quality cycles make it a preferred play amidst a not-so-benign operating environment. We expect improving liability profile and improved pricing power to aid the bank’s margin and profitability going forward. Keeping our estimates unchanged for forward years, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a SOTP-based revised Target Price of Rs1,600 (from Rs1,550 earlier) based on 4.2x FY21E adjusted PBV (4x earlier) and the value of its subsidiaries, implying a FY21 P/ABV of 5.7x.
We apply a P/B multiple of 4.8x to the FY20 book value of the parent bank and arrive at a TP of INR 1,620 per share on SoTP basis, an upside of 8.4% over CMP. Since, our last “BUY” rating, the shares of Kotak Bank has advanced 6.4%. We remain positive on the counter and recommend an “Accumulate” rating.
We have revised our NII estimates by -1.6%/-4.2%, PPOP estimates by 0.8%/-2.2% and PAT estimates by 1.3%/-1.8% for FY20/FY21, respectively. We have retained Buy rating on KMB and revised our target price to Rs1,676 (from Rs1,751 earlier), valuing the stock at 4.1x FY21E P/BV.
Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) delivered a steady Q1FY20, reinforcing our view that its earnings momentum would sustain in spite of the challenging environment. Key highlights: a) Growth momentum softened due to lower growth in corporate/business banking (cautious stance) and below-trend vehicle finance growth (slow underlying sales). b) That said, an improving NIM profile (returns consciousness) supported 20%-plus YoY NII growth. c) The continued focus on building up the stable and low-cost franchise is evident from CASA growth of 20%-plus YoY (contrary to softening trend at peers) and suggests it is priming for growth. Given KMB’s: a) best-in-class liability franchise (CASA ratio of >50%); b) marginal stress baggage—GNPL at 2.19%; and c) strong capitalisation (tier-1: >17%), a strong foundation is in place to capture emerging opportunities. Key variables: the roadmap for reduction in promoter shareholding. Maintain ‘BUY’ with a revised SoTP of INR1,632 (rolling forward by one quarter; earlier INR1,576).
Despite a challenging environment on the liabilities front, KMB has managed to improve its CASA share with most of the growth coming from the granular sources. Given its conservative lending and healthy performance across the asset quality cycle, KMB will continue to be one of the preferred plays amidst a not-so-benign operating environment for banks. Clarity on dilution in promoters’ holding is awaited, which could be a near-term overhang for the stock. At CMP, the stock trades at 4.9x FY21E. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with an SOTP-based revised Target Price of Rs1,550 (from Rs1,500 earlier) based on 4x FY21E adjusted PBV and the value of its subsidiaries, implying a FY21 P/ABV of 5.5x.