5 JUBLFOOD share price target reports by brokerages below. See what is analyst's view on JUBLFOOD share price forecast, rating, estimates, valuation and prediction behind the target. You may use these research report forecasts for long-term to medium term for your investment or trades in 2020.
Overall operating environment for the QSR industry continues to be weak in near term as situation remains uncertain due to Covid related lockdown measures. From a medium term perspective, JUBI’s own initiatives - fortressing markets, investment in data science, innovations and brand equity along with strong balance sheet will help maintain its dominant position in the space. The Hong’s Kitchen & Biryani foray along with a good response from new markets like Bangladesh present opportunities for future growth. We remain positive on the growth prospects that the Indian QSR industry offers for organized players and also believe players with strong business model will gain share from unorganized players. Due to limited upside on a one-year basis, we downgrade the stock to Accumulate with a revised target price of Rs1,625 (based on unchanged P/E multiple of 42x FY22 EPS), implying an upside of 6% from CMP.
We estimate 47.5% decline in 1HFY21 sales, low base will enable 23% sales growth in 2H21. Although retailers are enforcing “Force Majeure” – act of god clause to avoid rent, we don’t expect full exemption as the impact might be prolonged. We estimate sales/mature stores to decline by 20% in FY21 and increase by 21% in FY22. We estimate 20.4% decline in EPS in FY21 and 71.3% growth in FY22 giving a CAGR of 16.7% over FY20-22. We don’t see any structural issues to emerge for JUBI given strong balace sheet (Net cash Rs8bn in FY20) and negative working capital (Rs4bn). We value the stock at 43xFY22 and arrive at a target price of Rs1490 (Rs1913 earlier). We would wait for better entry price given the uncertanity and likely pressure on profitability over next 2 quarters. We downgrade the stock to Accumulate (Buy earlier).
We re-inforce our positive stance on JUBI given 1) sustained improvement in SSG at 5.9% (7.2% LTL growth, despite CAA disruptions) 2) acceleraion in store openings (highest for 20 quarters) and 3) peak impact of input cost inflation already reflected in 3Q numbers. JUBI is creating sustained levers for growth led by 1) menu innovations with Indian Masala Pizza range 2) structural shift to home delivery and 3) focus on driving efficincies and digital infrastructure. Although visibility on scale up in Dunkin Donuts and Hong’s kitchen remains poor, Dominos remains on track to report sustaned growth despite onslaught of food aggregators/ cloud kitchens. We cut our EBIDTA estimates of FY20 by 4% while keeping FY21 flat and increasing FY22 by 2%. Our EPS is being cut by 7.4-9.5% mainly due to frontloading of depreciation from higher store openings and fine tuning impact of IND AS116. We estimate 18.6% EBIDTA and 26.3% PAT CAGR over FY20-22. We value the stock at 43xFY22 EPS and arrive at target price of Rs1913 (Rs1753 based on 40xSept21 EPS). Retain BUY.
We are keeping tabs on: i) SSSG growth – anticipating improvement with base getting favourable, but risk to discretionary spends; ii) disputes between food-tech apps andrestaurant owners; and iii) traction in Hong’s Kitchen. Maintain our target PE of 45x to arrive at a TP of INR1,642. The stock trades at ~40x FY21E EPS. Maintain ‘BUY/SP’.
There is no material change to our FY20/21/22 EPS. Overall operating environment continues to be weak in near term. The company has been experiencing slowdown in dine-in business for the last few quarters now which has been to some extent compensated by good growth in the delivery business in recent times.Company’s own initiatives - strategy of fortressing markets, investment in data science to improve customer service and efficiencies, railway ordering, innovations and focus on delivering value to the customer will help maintain its dominant position in the space. It is also to be noted that JUBI has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of corporate tax rate reduction which gives it room for spending on promotions to tackle competition. Further, the foray into the Chinese fast casual segment and a good response from new markets like Bangladesh presents opportunities for future growth. The stock trades at 41x FY21E EPS. We retain our BUY rating with a unchanged target price ofRs1,685 (based on P/E multiple of 45x Sep’21 EPS), implying an upside of 18% from the CMP.
We believe that Dominos brand strength and delivery based model will enable it to wither onslaught of food aggregators/ cloud kitchens. Although input costs in dairy and manpower are rising, current softening in dairy prices and log-out movements in food aggregators will reduce cost/margin pressures for JUBI. We cut our FY20 and FY21 EPS estimate by 4.9% and 1% as we factor in one time charge for reclassification of deferred tax and higher store openings (108 stores in FY20 and 100 in FY21). We estimate mid to high single SSG with 108 new Dominos store openings in FY20 translating to 24.7% PAT CAGR over FY19-22. We value the stock at 40xSept21 EPS and arrive at target price of Rs1753 (Rs1688 earlier on 40xJune21 EPS). Retain BUY.
Valuations are in line with peers at 39.4x FY21E EPS. However, on the EV/EBITDA front, the stock trades at a huge discount – not only compared to consumer peers but also at 1SD below its own historical average. The only reason warranting caution is a further deterioration in the operating environment, particularly impacting dine-in, which forms half of its countrywide sales. The government’s moves have led to improved corporate profitability but not yet translated into better demand. Nevertheless, it is worth watching JUBI’s moves and its impact. Meanwhile, we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
As all levers to higher growth and margin expansion seem to be exhausted, we maintain our negative stance on JUBI’s business. Softer SSG print along with compression of EBITDA margin is likely to lead to downward trajectory in RoE from 28% in FY19 to 22% in FY21E. Such scenario is likely to keep the valuation multiples under check, even though being at optically historical lows. At CMP, the stock trades at 43x of FY20E earnings. Keeping our estimates unchanged, we maintain our REDUCE recommendation on the stock with a marginally revised Target Price of Rs1,050 (from Rs1,060 earlier) valuing it at ~36x (from 37x earlier).
Not so JUBILANT! JFL performance was weak owing to moderation in discretionary spend, a heavy base (26% SSG) and aggressive A&P spends (>12% YoY). We cut our estimates by 3% to factor 1Q miss and moderation in 2Q SSG but maintain our estimates for 2HFY20 (supported by price hikes and recovery in macros). Near-term headwinds provide a great opportunity to buy. We value at 46x on Jun-21 EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 1,778. Maintain BUY.
We have retained Buy rating on JUBI after revising our earnings estimates with a revised target price (TP) of Rs1,480 (from Rs1,620 earlier), indicating an upside of 28% from the CMP, based on an unchanged multiple of 45x.
At CMP, the stock trades at PE multiple of 42x/40x for FY20E/21E. Tweaking our PE valuation multiple to 37x (from 38x earlier), we maintain our REDUCE recommendation on the stock with a Target Price of Rs1,060/share based on FY21 EPS, which implies 8.5% downside from the current level.
View: SSSG continues to moderate; Maintain Accumulate JFL’s Q1FY20 results were below our estimate, with a 4.1% YoY same store sales growth (SSSG) vs our estimate of 5%. A high base of 25.9% YoY in SSSG restricted overall growth in Q1FY20. We believe JFL will likely post a high single digit SSSG in the ensuing quarters, as the base remains highly unfavorable. In addition, margins are likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to store additions, escalating RM prices, and rise in A&P costs. We revise our FY20E and FY21E EPS estimates downwards to 25.5 and 30.6, from 30.4 and 34.1, respectively to factor in Q1 performance and change in accounting standards. Maintain Accumulate, with TP of 1,225 (40x FY21E EPS).
Outlook and valuation: Positive; maintain ‘BUY’ We are keeping tabs on: i) SSSG growth given the high base and moderation in discretionary spends; ii) aggression of food-tech apps; and iii) traction in the Hong’s Kitchen format. This said, we remain upbeat on company’s long-term prospects given its value proposition and expansion focus. As we roll forward to Dec 2020E, our revised TP works out to INR1,430. At CMP, stock trades at ~35x FY21E. Maintain ‘BUY/SP’.
We estimate mid to high single SSG and PAT growth of 9.7% in FY20 and 25.4% in FY21. We value the stock at 40xJune21 EPS and arrive at target price of Rs1459 (Rs1541 earlier). We believe that current turmoil provides a good opportunity to accumlate stock for medium term gains. Retain BUY.
JFL’s 4Q performance was mixed with modest SSG growth and healthy internals. We remain bullish on JFL, this quarter does not impair our long-term thesis. Instead, our confidence rises based on management’s commentary on (a) Initiatives undertaken in technology, (b) Reimaging stores (design, self-ordering kiosks etc.) and (c) Beefing up Domino’s menu with beverages (in-house brands). We value at 46x on Mar-21 EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 1,739.
JUBI is creating multiple growthlevers with Dominos Bangladesh and Hong’s kitchen, however Dominos willremain cornerstone of profitable growth in medium term. We expect high single SSG and sales growth and sales, EBIDTA and PAT CAGR of 17%, 18.6% and 24% over FY19-21. We believe that valuations at 18xFY21 EV/ EBIDTA and 32.3xFY21 EPS are at a discount to most consumer names, despite higher profit growth. We value the stock at 40xFY21 EPS and arrive at target price of Rs1541 (24% upside), Upgrade to BUY.
We believe JFL has enough levers to sustain healthy performance in FY20/21E given (1) Return to store expansion (focus on splitting stores in metros and expansion in smaller towns), (2) Filling gaps in the Menu, (3) Focus on new customer acquisition and driving frequency, (4) Benefits from sporting events (Cricket World Cup 2019 and reschedule in IPL will support 1HCY19 performance), (5) Turnaround of Dunkin’ and Launch of Hong’s Kitchen. We model 18/11/10% SSG growth during FY19E/FY20E/FY21E. We value JFL at 46x on Mar-21 EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 1,750. Reiterate BUY.
We increase EPS estimates by 2/4% for FY20/21E to factor in higher SSG, store and margin expansion. We reiterate our 18-month old BUY (we had upgraded JUBI when the stock was at Rs 636) with a revised TP of Rs 1,750 (earlier Rs 1,620) valuing JFL at 46x Mar-21 EPS. Our strategic view is that positives will almost always look priced-in, especially on a rising base. But the opportunity for JFL to deliver surprises will likely ensure a multi-year flowering for the stock. Notably, a similar story has played out in the recent past at Britannia, where a new CEO has transformed and established a sagging business via multiple initiatives over a sustained period of time.
SOURCE: Data from D'Market via Quandl. Intraday data delayed 15 minutes.
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