Healthy growth in advances with focus on retail segment to augment margins & thereby operational performance. However, recent development in state could impact bank’s competitive advantage, while concerns regarding governance and functioning remains overhang in the near term. Accordingly, we reduce our earnings estimates by 36%/21% for FY20E/21E. Accordingly, we lower our target to | 48 (earlier | 53) keeping our target multiple unchanged at 0.7x FY21E ABV. We maintain our HOLD recommendation.
Based on a sensitivity analysis (Exhibit 1) of the impact on earnings, we revise our target multiple downwards to 0.7x FY21E (earlier 0.9x) and lower our target price to Rs 53/share (earlier | 65). Thus, we downgrade our rating on the stock from BUY to HOLD.
Healthy growth in advances with focus on retail segment is expected to augment margins & thereby operational performance. Recognition of stressed account & continuous reduction in rehabilitated advances is expected to keep asset quality under control. Accordingly, RoA is expected to improve gradually to 0.8% in FY21E. Rolling over our estimates to FY21E, we revise our target price to Rs 65 (earlier | 52), valuing the stock at ~0.9x FY21E ABV. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.
Credit cost (calculated) was moderately high at 2.7% (2.4% in 4Q18) as a) bank recognized 3 IL&FS accounts of 4 as NPA, b) divergence in provisions cited by RBI. Bank’s restructured book which had been a concern declined 12% QoQ. Valuation of 0.6x on Mar-21 ABV is reasonable given healthy loan growth & margins outlook, robust liabilty franchise (CASA:51%), controlled asset quality and waning capital concerns. Retain BUY with revised TP of Rs80 (from Rs76) based on 0.9x Mar-21 ABV.