31 INFY share price target reports by brokerages below. See what is analyst's view on INFY share price forecast, rating, estimates, valuation and prediction behind the target. You may use these research report forecasts for long-term to medium term for your investment or trades in 2020.
Infosys Limited provides IT consulting and software services, including ebusiness, program management and supply chain solutions. The Group’s services include application development, product co-development, and system implementation and system engineering. Infosys targets businesses specializing in the insurance, banking, telecom and manufacturing sectors. • Revenue surged 8.5% YoY, aided by strong growth in Hi-Tech and Life Sciences verticals. EBIT went up 20.0% YoY, as EBIT margin improved 220 bps to 22.7%. Resultantly, PAT also rose 11.5% YoY. • Company revised year-end guidance to 0-2% YoY growth in constant currency terms, with operating margin guidance of 21-23%. • Backed by recent large wins coupled with strong order book, Infosys is expected to sail through the year despite near-term woes amidst pandemic. We remain positive on company’s Long-term growth prospects and upgrade our rating to BUY with a revised TP of Rs. 1,018 based on 22x FY22E adj. EPS.
Infosys has shown a visible improvement in performance since the change in management. We expect the company to continue to make steady improvement in financials in coming quarters. Digital acceleration, large deal wins vendor consolidation and cost rationalisation remain key long term drivers. Further, Infosys has maintained healthy cash flow generation and has a consistent dividend payout policy. We remain positive on the stock and maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 1000/share.
Infy Q1FY21 results were beat in all parameters- Strong revenue beat & Margin performance, EPS beat & strong deal wins. Infy reported just -2% QoQ CC decline in revenues as compared to Ple -4.1%/Cons 5.5% QoQ CC. Limited revenue decline helped margin expansion as they started tight cost management from the beginning of the quarter. Infy posted a strong margin expansion of ~150bps QoQ to 22.7% (Ple: 20.6%, Cons:20.5%). Tailwinds were i) INR deprecation (+100bps), ii) Travel & visa cost (+230bps), iii) Lower SG&A (+110bps) & headwinds were i) utilization & pricing (-150bps), ii) Variable (- 100bps). Infy surprised the street by Reinstating Revenue guidance of (0-2% CC YoY growth for FY21) gives confidence about growth visibility over the rest of year coupled with strong deal momentum (US$1.7bn, 5.7% QoQ). Due to strong revenue guidance, deal pipeline & strong margin beat led to massive upgrades to our earnings estimates. We increase our EPS estimates by 15%/9% for FY22/23E led by revenue & margin upgrade. We have assigned 20X multiple & value it on Sep-22 EPS of Rs.51.8 to arrive at changed TP of Rs.1037. Infy is currently trades at 17.1/15.1X earnings of Rs.48.5/55.1 for FY22E/23E respectively. Upgrade to Buy from Hold.
Infosys Ltd (Infy) revenue stood at Rs. 23,267 crs up 8% YoY and 0.8% QoQ. Operating profit showed a growth of 6.7% YoY at Rs. 4,927crs, while operating margin declined by 80 bps at 21.2% (vs. 21.9% in Q3FY20) due to lower utilization & increase in H1 B visas fees. Net profit for Q4 FY20 stood at Rs.4,321 crs reporting a de-growth of 3.1% QoQ. Infosys management refrained giving revenue guidance and margin guidance due to uncertainty caused by COVID 19 outbreaks. The management sees short term uncertainty in all the major verticals like BFSI, Retail across geographies in the near term. However digital with $1,341 mn revenue (41.9% of the top line) showed a strong growth of 31.7% YoY and 2.6% QoQ in cc terms. Deal wins for the quarter at $1.65bn slowed as compared to the previous quarter ($1.8 bn in Q3 FY20).
Infosys (INFY) delivered rev/margin below estimates in 4Q. While near-term performance will be marred by demand dent across verticals, subsequent recovery will be supported by (1) Strong growth in digital (42% of rev), (2) Resilience in large deal wins (bookings tracking well), (3) Market-share gains from vendor consolidation, and (4) Operational prudence & favourable onsite supply metrics. Maintain BUY with TP of Rs 680, at 16x FY22E EPS.
The company has shown a visible improvement in performance since the change in management. We expect Infosys to continue to make steady improvement in financials post these near-term challenges. Digital acceleration, large deal wins vendor consolidation and cost rationalisation remains key long term drivers. Further, the company has maintained healthy cash flow generation and has a consistent dividend payout policy. We remain positive on the stock and maintain our BUY rating with a target price of Rs 750/share.
The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to pose continued near-term challenges on demand, supply, pricing and working capital fronts. However, given the company’s historical track record of adapting to multiple business challenges and technology change cycles, we believe it will be able to navigate through COVID-19 headwinds. Given the company’s usually conservative tone when it comes to its guidance, we are not taken aback by its outlook in the current context. We expect INFO to be a key beneficiary of the recovery in IT spends in FY22E. The stock is currently trading in line with its long-term cross cycle average. Our TP implies 18x FY22E EPS. Retain Buy.
We believe margin pressure from pricing and lower utilization will be offset by INR depreciation, no salary hikes, lower travel and marketing costs, lower subcontracting costs, lower real estate costs, automation, pyramiding, etc. We maintain our Sell rating on Infosys with a March 2021 target price (TP) of Rs543 (at a target P/E of 13.6x FY22E EPS, 10% discount to TCS’ target P/E). While revenue growth of Infosys is likely to be at par with that of TCS in FY21/FY22, TCS will have better margin and RoIC. We reiterate our underweight call on the IT services sector as we believe the growth could be weaker and the weakness could last longer than is currently being priced in by the market.
We have cut our revenue estimates for FY21E/FY22E by 2% & except revenue decline of 5% in FY21E. Our near term revenue forecast stands at QoQ decline of 3% in Q1FY21 and 2% decline in Q2FY21.This led to cut in EPS by ~5%/4% for FY21E/22E. We have assigned 16X multiple (unchanged) on FY22E earnings to arrive at changed target price of Rs. 668 (earlier 694). After a strong bounce back in stock, upside will be modest from hereon, downgrading to HOLD from BUY.
We believe Simplus acquisition along with Fluido acquisition will help Infosys to further position as end-to-end Salesforce enterprise cloud solutions and services provider in US & Australia. Acquisition is valued at 3.7X EV/Sales FY20. (Fluido was acquired at 3.6X EV/Sales CY17) bit on a higher side. Simplus has a revenue base of USD 67 mn in FY20 growing at ~60% YoY, assuming 45% YoY growth in FY21E this acquisition accounts to 0.7% of Infosys revenues. Our estimates remain unchanged & continue to value Infy at 18X multiple at earnings of Rs. 45.5 (Sep-20) to arrive at a target price of Rs.820. Infosys is currently trading at 18X/16X on FY21E/22E EPS of Rs.43.6/47.7 respectively.
While it is positive that Infy has revised the guidance, it is due to 170 bps contribution from inorganic component. Despite strong deal metrics, we are concerned about future growth due to volatility in key verticals including BFSI and Retail due to macro and structural factors. Even on margin front, we expect Infy to exit FY20E either below or at best in the mid-range of the guided band of 21%-23%. Keep in this view we continue to rate the stock a “HOLD” with a target price of Rs. 843, upside of 7%. We value the stock at 5-Yr historical average of FY21E PE of 18.5x.
Company continued to report handsome growth in its revenue. Revenues stood at Rs. 23092 cr in quarter ended in Dec 2019 as compared to Rs 22629 cr in Sep 2019 quarter and Rs 21400 cr in the quarter ended in Dec 2018. The Company reported growth of 2.05% on QoQ basis and 7.91% on a YoY basis. The Company has shown increase in its operating profits by 2.87% on QoQ basis and 16.98% on YoY basis. PAT of the company increased by 10.63% on QoQ basis and by 23.71%on YoY basis to Rs. 4466 cr in Dec 2019 quarter.The Operating Profit margin increased by 20 basis points for Q3 on QoQ basis and by 195 basis points on YoY basis. The Net Profit margin increased by 150 basis points for Q3 on QoQ basis and by 247 basis points on YoY basis.EPS stood at Rs 10.5 per share in the relevant quarter vs Rs 9.47 per share in the last quarter and Rs 8.29 per share in Dec 2018 quarter.
Infosys Ltd. reported strong top line growth and healthy deal wins in Q3FY20. Infosys posted revenue growth of 9.5% on YoY basis and 1.0% on QoQ basis in constant currency terms for the period of Q3FY20. Infosys reported steady deal wins (14 large deals) with a TCV of $1.8bn despite Q3 being a seasonally weak quarter. Operating margins have improved by 22 bps to 21.9% sequentially. The operating margins were in line with the guided range of 21%-23%. Infosys revised its full year revenue guidance for FY20 to 10%- 10.5% from previous 9%-10% and operating margin guidance maintained at 21%-23% for FY20. Independent audit committee issued a clean chit to the Infosys management from whistle blower complaints. Healthy deal wins, higher growth in key business verticals will put Infosys back on growth trajectory. We assign 18.3x P/E multiple to its FY22E earnings of Rs. 46.8 per share which gives a target price of Rs. 860 per share, an upside of 11%.
Valuation – Maintain Buy with a revised PT of Rs. 820: We have tweaked our earnings estimates for FY2020E/FY2021E on account of increase in revenue growth guidance, though margins missed our estimates slightly. We introduced FY2022E numbers in this note. With continued robust TCV signings, a healthy deal pipeline and integrated offerings, we believe Infosys would comfortably deliver double-digit CC growth in FY2020E. At CMP, the stock is trading at 18x/17x of its FY2020E/FY2021E earnings estimates, which is currently at around 26% discount to TCS. As Infosys is expected to outperform TCS in terms of revenue growth and gaining market share in digital business among peers, we believe the discount to TCS would narrow down going ahead. Further a clean chit in whistleblower issue would remove overhang on the stock. Hence, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised PT of Rs. 820.
In-line rev/margin and a positive troika of rev guidance increase, attrition decline and Board’s clean chit on whistleblower allegations marked 3Q. Maintain BUY (top pick in tier-1 IT) with TP of Rs 850, at 18x Dec-21E EPS (unchanged est/multiple).
Highlight of the quarterly results was the clean chit given by the Audit Committee of the Board to the company in light of anonymous whistle- blower complaint. Further, healthy deal signings, digital growth and scope of margin expansion would drive the profitability. In addition, we expect valuation gap between Infosys and TCS (P/E discount of ~25% based on FY21E EPS) to narrow with improving financials. We roll over our valuations on FY22E and maintain BUY rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 890 (based on 18x FY22E EPS).
In a cautious spending environment, we expect INFO to outperform TCS on growth (8.2% YoY v/s 6.1% YoY of TCS, FY21, CC). Our comfort was driven by INFO’s continued robustness in large deal wins and strong order backlog. In addition, as investments stabilize and back-ended benefits (e.g. productivity improvement in US onsite workforce) kick in, we foresee meaningful headroom for margin expansion (~130bp over FY20-22). As the whistleblower-related overhang is now behind and with expectations of a growth outperformance (v/s TCS), we expect slight re-rating in one-year forward P/E to ~18x, as the discount (v/s TCS) reverts to normalized levels.
Infosys stock price is still down 10% since the whistleblower allegations took place. Whistleblower allegation was the key overhang on the valuations. Infosys is currently trading at 17X/15.5X FY21E/FY22E multiple which is ~28% discount to TCS multiples’. With the clean chit, strong deal pipeline & margin improvement levers we expect the discount to narrow to 20%. With the modest miss on revenues in Q3 & steady headwinds of BFSI/Retail ahead, we have marginally tuned our estimates & continue to value Infy at 18X multiple at earnings of Rs. 45.5 (Sep-20) to arrive at a changed target price of Rs.820. INFY remains our top pick in tier-1 IT companies.
Strong revenue growth, healthy deal wins in Q2FY20: Infosys posted revenue growth of 11.4% on YoY basis and 3.3% sequential growth in constant currency terms for the period of Q2FY20 aided mainly by broad based growth across all verticals. Operating margins have improved by 120 bps to 21.7% sequentially mainly due to higher utilization, improved offshore mix and automation benefits. Infosys revised its full year revenue guidance for FY20 to 9%- 10.0% from previous 8.5%-9.5% and operating margin guidance is also maintained at 21%-23% for FY20. Healthy deal wins, higher growth in key business verticals will put Infosys back on growth trajectory.We recommend Buy with target price of Rs 805.
Valuation – Whistleblower allegation an overhang: The stock corrected more than 15% on October 23, after the allegations broke out. Note that in earlier whistleblower allegations in 2017 the stock’s multiple was also de-rated from 20x to 13x. Hence, we believe that the recent issue is likely to loom over the stock in the near term as it would divert management attention and affect performance. Also, any possible senior-level exits owing to the issue would drag down the stock and restrict any re-rating of multiples until clarity emerges. Given its relative outperformance among large peers, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised price target (PT) of Rs. 780.
We upgrade Infosys to BUY as it is trading at an attractive valuation of 16.5x Mar-21 earnings multiple which is 30% discount to TCS & also offering a dividend yield of 3.53%. We value Infosys on Sep-21 earnings at 18x multiple & arrive at unchanged target price of Rs.819. INFY is trading at 19.3x/16.6X/15x FY20E/21E/22E earnings at an EPS of Rs.37.2/43.2/47.8 respectively.
Infosys Ltd. reported strong growth in top line and healthy deal wins for the period of Q2FY20. Infosys posted revenue growth of 11.4% on YoY basis and 3.3% sequential growth in constant currency terms for the period of Q2FY20. Deal wins came in strong with TCV of $2.8bn; it remained healthy for yet another quarter. Operating margins have improved by 120 bps to 21.7% sequentially mainly due to higher utilization, improved offshore mix and automation benefits. Infosys revised its full year revenue guidance for FY20 to 9%- 10.0% from previous 8.5%-9.5% and operating margin guidance is also maintained at 21%-23% for FY20. Healthy deal wins, higher growth in key business verticals will put Infosys back on growth trajectory. We assign 16.8x P/E multiple to its FY21E earnings of Rs. 43.4 per share which gives a target price of Rs. 730 per share, an upside of 12%.
We upgrade our FY20 earnings estimate by 5%, largely to factor in better margin expectations. Over 1HFY20, INFO had outperformed TCS on growth. However, over the medium term, the performance of these companies is likely to converge.We expect a CAGR (FY19-21) of 9.3% in CC revenue and 11.5% in EPS. The stock price discounts FY20/21 earnings by 21.5/18.5x—10% discount to TCS (on FY21 multiples). Our price target of INR930 discounts forward earnings by 19x, implying an upside of 15%. Maintain Buy.
In line revenue & better-than-expected margins, accelerating deal TCV, digital growth and scope of margin expansion are key positives. Though we expect revenue growth to moderately surpass the upper guided band, the recent run up in the stock and fully priced valuations prompt us to maintain our HOLD rating with a revised target price of | 855 (based on 19x FY21E EPS).
We stick to our view that Infosys could nose ahead of TCS in FY20 in revenue growth (by ~100-150bps), whilet was behind by ~240bps in FY19. Post 2QFY20, we broadly hold on to our estimates (see Exhibit 2) for FY20/FY21/FY22. EPS is higher on higher other income. We maintain our Sell rating on Infosys with a September 2021 target price (TP) of Rs625 (at a target P/E of 14.9X FY21E EPS, 10% discount to TCS’ target P/E).
We find it difficult for multiple to re-rate from here as there is macro slowdown & demand environment is moderating. We have fine-tuned our estimates & introduced FY22 estimates. We now value Infosys on Sep-21 earnings (earlier Mar-21 earnings) at 18x multiple (earlier 18.5x) & arrive at a changed target price of Rs.819(earlier Rs.780). INFY is trading at 22.9x/18.8X/17x FY20E/21E/22E earnings at an EPS of Rs.37.2/43.2/47.8 respectively.
Q1FY20: Strong revenue growth, Healthy deal wins Infosys Ltd. reported strong growth in top line and healthy deal wins for the period of Q1FY20. Infosys posted revenue growth of 10.6% on YoY basis and 2.3% sequential growth in constant currency terms for the period of Q1FY20. Deal wins came in strong with TCV of $2.7bn; it remained healthy for yet another quarter. However operating margins have declined by 93 bps to 20.5% sequentially. Infosys revised its full year revenue guidance for FY20 to 8.5%- 10.0% from previous 7.5%-9.5% and operating margin guidance is also maintained at 21%-23% for FY20. Healthy deal wins, higher growth in key business verticals will put Infosys back on growth trajectory. We assign 20x P/E multiple to its FY21E earnings of Rs. 43.0 per share which gives a target price of Rs. 860 per share, an upside of 10%.
Valuation & Outlook: Healthy quarter performance, digital growth, visibility from deal pipeline and improving margin trajectory lead us to maintain our positive stance on Infosys. Further, we believe this would narrow the revenue and margin gap with TCS. However, recent run up in stock prompt us to downgrade the stock from Buy to HOLD with a target price of 845 (based on 19x FY21E EPS).
Our earnings estimate for FY20 is up marginally by 1.6% due to the small beat across the board. More significant for valuations was the capital allocation policy change, which will enhance its pre-tax payout yields. We note the contrast in INFO’s 1QFY20 performance to that of TCS – where near-term revenue visibility remained suspect and the growth performance was lopsided in favor of two verticals. Given this – and with payouts converged too – the case for narrowing of the valuation gap gets stronger. We expect a CAGR (FY19-21) of 10.5% in CC revenue and 12.4% in EPS. The stock price discounts FY20/21 earnings by 19.4/16.6—28% discount to TCS. Our price target of INR840 discounts forward earnings by 19x, implying an upside of 15%. Maintain Buy.
We maintain our Sell rating on Infosys with a March 2020 target price (TP) of Rs596 (at a target P/E of 14.9x FY21E EPS, 10% discount to TCS’ target P/E). We retainthe 10% discount to TCS. While revenue growth of Infosys is likely to be a tad faster than TCS in FY20 and possibly in FY21 too, TCS will have better margins and RoIC. We reiterate our underweight call on the IT services sector as we forecast a 0% industry growth in FY21 (see sector view on the next page). But within this stance we prefer TCS followed by Infosys and HCL Technologies over the next 12-24 months.
Infosys Ltd. reported strong growth in top line and healthy deal wins for the period of Q4FY19. Infosys posted revenue growth of 9.1% on YoY basis and 2.4% sequential growth in constant currency terms for the period of Q4FY19. Deal wins came in strong with TCV of $1.6bn; it remained healthy for yet another quarter. In the current financial year total deals TCV stands at $6.2bn. However operating margins have declined by 113 bps to 22.5% sequentially. Infosys revised its full year revenue guidance for FY20 to 7.5%- 9.5% from previous 8.5%-10.5% and operating margin guidance is also lowered at 21%-23% for FY20. The board has recommended a buyback of Rs 8,260 cr at a maximum buyback price of Rs 800per share. Healthy deal wins, higher growth in key business verticals will put Infosys back on growth trajectory. We assign 18.6x P/E multiple to its FY21E earnings of Rs. 43.4 per share which gives a target price of Rs. 807 per share, an upside of 13%.
Even as revenue growth is encouraging, we are nonplussed by Infosys’ margin guidance. FY20E margin will hit its lowest-ever level, and is likely to be ~400bps below the 5-years ago level and >800bps lower than 10-years ago level. While we have consistently maintained our view of ‘good revenue growth but at a cost’, lower-than-expected outlook comes as a negative surprise. Persistently higher attrition rate could also eat away profitability on higher employee retention cost. The stock is up 27% over the past year, and margin challenges are likely to lead to EPS CAGR of <10% over FY19-FY21E. At CMP, the stock trades at >17X FY21E EPS. We downgrade our recommendation on the stock to HOLD from BUY with a revised Target Price of Rs780 (from Rs840 earlier). Cash return in the form of buy-back could prevent the stock from declining steeply (>80% payout in FY19, RoE flattish despite steep margin decline).
We expect the company to generate a topline growth of 9.0%/8.2% in FY20E/FY21E owing to the strong digital business growth supported by a revival in global IT spending (expected to increase 3.5%/2.8% in CY20E/21E). We expect contribution from the new business (deal wins with TCV of USD 1.6bn in 4QFY19) and Stater acquisition to drive top line growth. Partially offsetting this growth will be a weakness in its core business revenue. On the margin front, we expect investments towards scaling digital offerings and increased localization to continue to negatively impact the operating margin in FY20E. However, we expect the company’s buy back plan (~80% allocated capital left unutilized) to act as a support for the stock price. Infosys is currently trading at a P/E multiple of 19.5x/18.5x on FY20E/FY21E earnings. We conservatively apply a P/E multiple of 19.8x to the FY20 estimated EPS of INR 38.4 to arrive at a revised target price of INR 761 per share, an upside of 2% over the CMP. Accordingly, we reiterate our HOLD rating.
Infosys’ FY2020E revenue growth guidance of 7.5-9.5% is a touch lighter than expected. This includes contribution from Stater acquisition (the mortgage processing arm of ABN AMRO) though the management did not quantify the magnitude. The company reported that clients are monitoring spends closely and could curtail spends in the event of a slowdown. While growth in large deal TCV has been decent, Infosys’ modest organic guidance of 6.5-8.5% indicates pressure/contraction in renewals. Further the company faces headwinds from wage hikes in H1FY20E and increased levels of attrition.
Infosys management has guided for CC revenue growth of 7.5-9.5% for FY20E, which is slightly lower than our estimate of 8-10%, though the company kept its EBIT margin guidance at 21-23% for FY20E, which is in line with our estimate. With robust growth in its digital business and Q4FY19 being the second successive quarter of over US$ 1.5 billion large deal TCV, management is positive about the strong demand pipeline in the system. At CMP of Rs 748, Infosys is trading at a P/E of 18.9x its FY20E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 849 (21.5x FY20E EPS), an upside of 13.5%.
We retain our Sell rating on Infosys with a March 2020 target price of Rs601 (at a target P/E of 14.9x FY21E EPS, 10% discount to that of TCS’ target P/E). We had reduced the discount to TCS from 20% to 10% expecting reduction in growth gap. The margin performance does raise issues as to whether such a discount reduction could sustain. While revenue growth of Infosys is likely to be a tad faster than that of TCS in FY20, TCS will have better margins and RoIC. We believe the ongoing share buyback – a substantial part of which is yet incomplete – will cushion any big cuts on the stock. We believe the CEO, Mr. Salil Parekh, had a fortuitous start because of a very good macro in most of 2018 and to everyone’s surprise there was ample revenue acceleration in Year 1 itself. We believe he is going to be tested in FY21 in what would be a more hostile operating environment
We believe that higher sub-contracting cost, higher attrition, implied investment and localisation in the medium term will lead to margin pressure in FY20 for INFY. We expect INFY to report margins towards the mid-point of its guidance in FY20. We downgrade our earnings estimates by 12%/11.5% for FY20/FY21, primarily because of rupee appreciation and margin headwinds going ahead. We change our rupee assumption to Rs 70 for FY20/FY21 as compared to Rs 74/ Rs 76 earlier which led to major downgrade in our earnings estimate. We downgrade INFY to SELL with revised TP of Rs 700 ( Rs 840 earlier) based on 17x one-year fwd. PER.
Valuation: Maintain Buy with a PT of Rs. 840: We have tweaked our earnings estimates for FY2020E/FY2021E, factoring in lower-than- expected margin guidance for FY2020E and change in USD/INR rate. At CMP, the stock is trading at 19x/17x its FY2020/FY2021E earnings estimates. With robust TCV signings and improving business visibility, we believe that Infosys would gradually catch up in revenue growth with TCS in FY2020E and in-turn would narrow the valuation gap with TCS going forward. Thus, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with an unchanged price target (PT) of Rs. 840.
We downgrade Infosys to NEUTRAL (from BUY) post its inline revenues in 4QFY19. The growth challenges and margin trajectory compels us to cut estimates by ~5%. Our TP falls to Rs 755 (Rs 805 earlier) at 18x FY21E EPS.
Digital being a multiyear opportunity and relatively less impacted by macro slowdown, will be key growth driver for Infosys. Further, we believe healthy deal wins will enable the company to narrow the revenue and margin gap with TCS. Hence, we maintain BUY rating on the stock with a target price of | 805 (based on 18x FY21E EPS, which is 15% discount to TCS).
While a weak exit in terms of margins and a further cut in the guidance naturally raise concerns about the lack of profitable growth, INFO cited that it is the back-ended investments in FY19 that are dragging the FY20 outlook, and that the focus hereon will be on driving efficiency levers. We expect the company to reverse its sequential margin trajectory after 1QFY20 (impacted by wage hikes). Our FY20/21 EBIT margin estimates are 22.2%/22.6%, 40bp/30bp lower. Our USD revenue growth estimate stands at 10% for both the years going forward, and absolute revenue estimate is ~0.5% lower. With a robust performance on deal wins, INFO’s revenue momentum is catching up with leading peers such as TCS, and the recent disappointment on margins should see its worst in 1QFY20, before reversing. Our price target of INR860 discounts forward EPS by 19x (5% discount to TCS). Maintain Buy.
Infosys reported inline Q4FY19 revenue performance but sharp miss on margins due to large deal impact & investments on people. Management guided a lower than expected revenue growth for FY20E due to uncertain macro environment. EBIT margin guidance was lowered to 21%-23% from 22- 24%, the lower margin guidance was due to need of investments ahead for demand acceleration. We don’t see guidance retuning back to beat-and-raise strategy as we believe macro environment vulnerability had led to lower revenue guidance. Revenue growth in this quarter was largely led by communication vertical, BFSI & retail both disappointed. If growth acceleration doesn’t happen in BFSI in next 2 quarters, that will lead to our multiple de-rating for Infosys. We are confident about Mr. Salil Parekh’s leadership & execution but we are cautious about margin expansion due to headwinds such as higher compensation, continued investments & impact on margin due to transition & ramp-up of recently won deals. We have cut our EPS estimates by 2.7% & 3.4% of FY20E/FY21E to factor lower than expected guidance & reduced margin assumption (-70bps: FY20E, -92bps: FY21E). Our revised TP stands at Rs.782 (earlier: Rs.808) valued at 18.5x Mar-21 multiple. We expect share buyback (max price of Rs.800) to cushion earnings downgrade in near term. Maintain Accumulate.
Robust business structure, healthy deal pipeline and revitalization of key business segment makes Infosys a safer bet to invest in. Rising demand across geographies and across different verticals helps Infosys to attain higher growth momentum. We have a BUY with a target of Rs. 810
Traditionally, revenue growth has been a key lever for margin expansion in the industry. This was due to disproportionately higher fresher additions to fuel growth, which brought down the overall cost of delivery. In the recent past, onsite centricity, healthy lateral mix, and greater use of sub- contractors are all accompaniments of growth, defying revenue growth as a lever for profitability. But sustained demand should allow the industry to either (1) pass on the higher cost to clients, or (2) eventually reap the fruits of investing in onsite talent development. We estimate margin pressure for INFO to bottom out in FY20 between 22.5 - 23%. Our price target of INR865 discounts forward earnings by 19x, a 10% discount to TCS’ 1-year forward multiple. Maintain Buy.
SOURCE: Data from D'Market via Quandl. Intraday data delayed 15 minutes.
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