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HINDPETRO Consensus Forecast

No. of reports in last year
7
No. of analysts
4
Average Consensus Forecast
309.14
Consensus Potential
41.27%

HINDPETRO Price Target Potential

BrokerageTargetPotential
Prabhudas Lilladher28035.57%
Nirmal Bang35348.90%
Geojit Financial Services28937.58%
Motilal Oswal34046.94%

HINDPETRO Targets in FrontPage Forums

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HINDPETRO Ratings

Long term HINDPETRO rating by FrontPage users
3.5/5 (4 Ratings)

7 HINDPETRO share price target reports by brokerages below. See what is analyst's view on HINDPETRO share price forecast, rating, estimates, valuation and prediction behind the target. You may use these research report forecasts for long-term to medium term for your investment or trades in 2020.
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HINDPETRO Share Price Target

HINDPETRO Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2020

17-Jun-20
Price @ Call: 215.07
Target: 280
BUY
7-Apr-20
Price @ Call: 198.51
Target: 353
BUY
We maintain Buy on IOC and upgrade BPCL and HPCL from Accumulate to Buy following revised earnings and TP, which we have rolled over to FY22E. We see PSU refining majors (OMCs) delivering double-digit returns in the next 6-12 months based on the upside leverage to marketing margins under low oil prices below US$40-50/bbl. We believe that these stocks are poised to enter the blue sky phase last seen during FY14-17, when the steep fall in oil price from US$107 to US$47-50/bbl boosted marketing margins and earnings for the OMCs. As a result, IOC and BPCL delivered compounded returns of 39% and 40%, respectively while HPCL’s stock price witnessed a CAGR of 70% over April 2014-March 2017. This is likely to offset the risk to earnings from pressure on GRMs (tough to predict), inventory losses and the hit on refining and marketing volume (due to the COVID19 lockdown). We have raised earnings for the OMC trio assuming about 10% hit on volume in 1QFY21, weak GRMs and Rs3/lit upside in retail margins in FY21. These are subject to change as and when we get official confirmation on the lockdown impact. The INR/USD depreciation, while negative for MTM impact in fx loans, is overall a tailwind assuming that the combined spread in refining and marketing remains +ve. We have raised our TP for HPCL by 43.9% to Rs353 and for IOC a tad to Rs137. We are cutting the TP for BPCL by 22.6% to Rs414 based on our reduced target multiple - from 10.9x (10% premium to SD+1 on 5 year median) to 6.1x (SD-1), as the stake sale tailwind is likely to wane until the COVID-19 related uncertainty ends.
... Read more
13-Feb-20
Price @ Call: 233.5
Target: 289
BUY
Marginal declines in Fuel oil and LPG cracks during the quarter affected the topline. Also, industry demand was impacted by Coronavirus outbreak and consequently led to increased volatility in oil prices. However, we expect market conditions to improve owing to IMO regulations. We estimate company’s earnings to grow at healthy 21.8% CAGR over FY20-22E supported by ongoing capacity expansion and expected improvements in GRMs and reiterate our BUY rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs. 289 using SOTP methodology.
... Read more
6-Feb-20
Price @ Call: 238.85
Target: 295
BUY
We maintain BUY on HPCL with a revised PT of Rs295 (Rs354 earlier) as we value based on 10x PER FY21E and also lower the value of Bhatinda value to Rs34.
... Read more
6-Feb-20
Price @ Call: 236.9
Target: 295
BUY
We maintain BUY on HPCL with a revised PT of Rs295 (Rs354 earlier) as we value based on 10x PER FY21E and also lower the value of Bhatinda value to Rs34.
... Read more
6-Feb-20
Price @ Call: 236.9
Target: 340
BUY
In the current benign crude price environment, we expect to see structural changes in the pricing of LPG and kerosene, which may bid farewell to under-recoveries in the petroleum sector. HPCL trades at ~35% discount to the average since FY15. Valuing it at 1.3x (20% discount to FY15-18 post the reform period, factoring in heavy capex and project execu
... Read more

HINDPETRO Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2019

19-Dec-19
Price @ Call: 264.37
Target: 312
BUY
9-Aug-19
Price @ Call: 250.33
Target: 265
HOLD
We are neutral on HPCL at the current juncture given the volatility in global GRMs and uncertainty on the company’s ability to pass on costs tocustomers during high oil prices. IOC’s marketing margins and trend inrefining margins will determine its near term performance. We have a HOLD recommendation on the stock with a target price of | 265.
... Read more
8-Aug-19
Price @ Call: 246.88
Target: 195
SELL
Slashing EPS and TP on steep 52.8% YoY fall in 1QFY20 earnings
We maintain Sell post our 23.6% and 23.3% cut in FY20-21 EPS and 6.4% reduction in TP to Rs 195/sh based on FY21E PE of 5.39x (10% premium to SD -1 on 5 year Median PE). We expect HPCL’s core business to remain weak due to pressure on GRMs and likely increasein competition in the profitable fuel retailing segment from private sector companies. Inaddition valuations would also be hampered by HPCL management’s refusal to acceptONGC as promoter. Maintain Sell with 20% downside from CMP to our TP Rs195/sh.
... Read more
8-Aug-19
Price @ Call: 246.88
Target: 354
BUY
Muted performance but better times ahead
We tweak our earnings to factor changes in forex rate (USD/INR at Rs70/72.1 for FY20/21) and other minor changes post Annual report updation. During Q1, core performance for HPCL was hit by inventory loss and lower than expected GRMs. However, benign crude prices and recovery in refining margins is positive for the OMCs and hence we expect a much better Q2FY20. State PSUs are also likely to benefit from implementation of IMO2020 effective January given >40% diesel slate. Maintain BUY with a revised PT of Rs354 (Rs326) based on 10x FY21E.
... Read more
27-May-19
Price @ Call: 311.07
Target: 343
ACCUMULATE
Valuation &Outlook: Among the three OMCs, we have a positive outlook on HPCL given its earnings growth visibility on the back of its capex plans and improvement marketing margin environment. The stock underperformed in FY19 due to volatile crude prices and uncertainty during the on-going election period keeping marketing margins under pressure. Now with a stable government at the Centre, OMCs stand a chance for higher flexibility allowing them to protect marketing margins in the light of any volatility in crude prices. We have revised our estimates factoring in the same. We expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 7.6% over FY19-21E and EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 5.9% over FY19-21E. At a CMP of INR 303, HPCL is trading at 6.0/5.3x of FY20/21E EV/EBITDA. We maintain our EV/EBITDA-based target price ofINR 343.(potential upside – 13.2%). We maintain BUY rating on the stock.
... Read more
22-May-19
Price @ Call: 285.1
Target: 208
SELL
We remain concerned over the increase in capex over the next five years, rise in interest costs and also concerns over product pricing freedom. We believe that with likely low earnings growth and a decline in RoE and RoCE, the stock will get de-rated. We have retained Sell rating on HPCL with a target price of Rs208 (based on SOTP valuation of FY21E earnings). We will be revising our estimates shortly.
... Read more
22-May-19
Price @ Call: 285.1
Target: 346
BUY
OMCs could not take any price hike to compensate for the rising product prices till mid-May in an election packed environment. Now onwards, normative margins will be restored allowing HP to be the largest beneficiary as its earnings are highly sensitive to changes in the marketing margins (EBITDA contribution of ~60% vs 55/44% for BP/IOC). Our SOTP target is Rs 346 (6x Mar21E EV/e for standalone refining and pipeline, 7x EV/e for marketing and Rs 57/sh from other investments).
... Read more
21-May-19
Price @ Call: 293.6
Target: 309
NEUTRAL
Concerns around the ability of the OMCs to take price hikes amid elections are overdone and clarity over marketing margins would benefit HPCL the most. However, due to high capex (Vizag expansion and Rajasthan refinery-cum- petrochem complex), free cash flow is likely to remain negative in FY20, in our view. HPCL is trading at 5.7x consol. FY20E EPS of INR51.3 and 1.3x FY20E PBV. We value HPCL at 1.2x FY21 PBV. Reiterate Neutral with a TP of INR309.
... Read more
28-Mar-19
Price @ Call: 274.05
Target: 325
BUY
We upgrade oil marketing companies (OMC’s) to BUY as we look beyond May 2019, wherein two important factors that determine the fortunes of OMCs gets settled-1) Central elections and uncertainties of policy overhang 2) clarity on Iran sanctions, which will determine trends in international crude oil prices. We believe that the risk-reward for the OMCs are favorable as US-China trade discord and weakening global economy will prevent any sharp rise in crude prices. Post Central elections, risk of government intervention on marketing margins is also likely to come down significantly. As a result, we increase our marketing margin assumptions (from Rs1.75 to Rs2.8/litre for FY20E) and target multiples to 10x PER FY20E against 8x earlier. BPCL/HPCL are top picks.
... Read more

HINDPETRO Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2018

10-Sep-18
Price @ Call: 248.7
Target: 476
BUY
9-Aug-18
Price @ Call: 282.4
Target: 463
BUY
9-Aug-18
Price @ Call: 282.4
Target: 428
BUY
8-Aug-18
Price @ Call: 288.6
Target: 403
BUY
24-May-18
Price @ Call: 286.95
Target: 348
BUY
23-May-18
Price @ Call: 291.19
Target: 433
BUY
23-May-18
Price @ Call: 310.04
Target: 507
BUY
13-Feb-18
Price @ Call: 392.15
Target: 420
HOLD
12-Feb-18
Price @ Call: 395.15
Target: 440
HOLD
9-Feb-18
Price @ Call: 395.24
Target: 530
BUY
9-Feb-18
Price @ Call: 395.24
Target: 465
BUY

HINDPETRO Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2017

14-Nov-17
Price @ Call: 420
Target: 440
HOLD
14-Nov-17
Price @ Call: 420
Target: 579
BUY
4-Oct-17
Price @ Call: 433.25
Target: 620
BUY
4-Aug-17
Price @ Call: 433
Target: 440
HOLD
28-Jul-17
Price @ Call: 374
Target: 427
BUY
6-Jun-17
Price @ Call: 364.56
Target: 446.67
BUY
2-Jun-17
Price @ Call: 358
Target: 366.67
BUY
14-Feb-17
Price @ Call: 385.33
Target: 433.33
BUY
22-Feb-17
Price @ Call: 372.29
Target: 436.67
BUY
15-Feb-17
Price @ Call: 362.67
Target: 366.67
HOLD
13-Feb-17
Price @ Call: 385.33
Target: 409.33
HOLD

HINDPETRO Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2016

15-Nov-16
Price @ Call: 296
Target: 328
BUY
15-Nov-16
Price @ Call: 296
Target: 310
HOLD
23-Aug-16
Price @ Call: 90
Target: 108.15
BUY
22-Aug-16
Price @ Call: 90
Target: 110.37
BUY
22-Aug-16
Price @ Call: 90
Target: 91.78
HOLD
23-Aug-16
Price @ Call: 85.18
Target: 89.26
HOLD
11-Jul-16
Price @ Call: 76.22
Target: 100.67
BUY
11-Jul-16
Price @ Call: 76.52
Target: 103.26
BUY
23-Jun-16
Price @ Call: 69.66
Target: 100.67
BUY
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  • HINDPETRO Share Price Target Today- Technical Pivot Points (Classic)

    keyboard_arrow_down
    Upside Target 3191.4
    Upside Target 2187.25
    Upside Target 1182.3
    Pivot178.15
    Downside Target 1173.2
    Downside Target 2169.05
    Downside Target 3164.1
  • HINDPETRO Share Price Target weekly- Technical Pivot Points (Classic)

    keyboard_arrow_down
    Upside Target 3207.08
    Upside Target 2204.12
    Upside Target 1199.08
    Pivot196.12
    Downside Target 1191.08
    Downside Target 2188.12
    Downside Target 3183.08
  • HINDPETRO Share Price Target monthly- Technical Pivot Points (Classic)

    keyboard_arrow_down
    Upside Target 3238.7
    Upside Target 2230.85
    Upside Target 1216.2
    Pivot208.35
    Downside Target 1193.7
    Downside Target 2185.85
    Downside Target 3171.2
  • HINDPETRO Share Price Target today- Technical Pivot Points (Fibonacci)

    keyboard_arrow_down
    Upside Target 3187.25
    Upside Target 2183.77
    Upside Target 1181.63
    Pivot178.15
    Downside Target 1174.67
    Downside Target 2172.53
    Downside Target 3169.05
  • HINDPETRO Share Price Target weekly- Technical Pivot Points (Fibonacci)

    keyboard_arrow_down
    Upside Target 3204.12
    Upside Target 2201.06
    Upside Target 1199.17
    Pivot196.12
    Downside Target 1193.06
    Downside Target 2191.17
    Downside Target 3188.12
  • HINDPETRO Share Price Target monthly- Technical Pivot Points (Fibonacci)

    keyboard_arrow_down
    Upside Target 3230.85
    Upside Target 2222.26
    Upside Target 1216.95
    Pivot208.35
    Downside Target 1199.76
    Downside Target 2194.45
    Downside Target 3185.85
SOURCE: Data from D'Market via Quandl. Intraday data delayed 15 minutes.
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