Migration to financial savings, strong distribution and a consistent performance are expected to enable healthy AUM growth and maintain leadership. Strong operating efficiency, higher proportion of equity AUM & strong SIP flows would aid profitability. With benefits of lower corporate tax rate kicking in, we revise our PAT estimates up by 10%, 9% for FY20E, FY21E, respectively. Given HDFC AMC’s strong positioning & superior earnings profile, the business deserves a premium valuation. However, a recent price spike appears to factor in all positives. Factoring in tax cut benefits, we revise our T higher to | 3040 (earlier | 2800). Maintain HOLD.
HDFC Asset Management Company Limited (HDFC AMC) reported its 2QFY20 results with the key pointers being: (1) AUM growth remains strong but higher share of liquid funds led to subdued revenue growth (2) PAT growth of 79% was supported by higher other income and lower effective tax rate. (See comprehensive conference call takeaways on page 2 for significant incremental colour). Per se, on the key financials, HDFC AMC posted MF AUM growth of 25% YoY at Rs3,662bn, net revenue growth of 3.7% YoY at Rs4,980mn, EBITDA growth of 46.5% at Rs3,889mn and PAT growth of 78.8% YoY at Rs3,682mn. We have revised our estimates for FY20/FY21/FY22 and retained Accumulate rating on HDFC AMC, revising our target price to Rs3166 (from Rs3047 earlier), valuing the stock at 40x H1FY22E P/E.