GOL’s focus on personal mobility, OEMs and improvement in product mix will remain its key driver as it commands a lower market share (>7%) giving ample headroom to cover. New OEM tie-ups through aggressive marketing are also expected to help GOL gain market share. However, upcomingdisruptions like those of electric vehicles and the company’s strategy todefend the same will be the key decider, going ahead. We value the company at 18x FY21E EPS of Rs 45 to arrive at a target price of Rs 810.
1QFY20 operating performance was healthy as EBITDA margins expanded ~120/70bp YoY/QoQ to 17.7% driven by an improved product mix. We expect Gulf Oil to deliver 3-4x the industry growth as the co expands into new segments and ramps up its distribution reach. We have a TP of Rs 1,050 based on 22x FY21 EPS.
The volume growth will continue to outperform the industry and the management expects to grow at least 2-3x the industry average. This growth will be driven by product launches, expansion of distribution channels, and focus on gaining more OEM tie-ups. They plan to grow in industrial segment where their market share is low. Recommend Accumulate, with a TP of 883 based on 18x FY21E earnings.
Our recent meeting with the management of Gulf Oil reinforces our view about the company’s industry leading volume growth and superior execution. We expect Gulf to continue to deliver 3-4x industry volume growth and gain market share. We reiterate our Buy, as Gulf’s growth story is solid led by a focused management. We expect market-share gains to be driven by an expanding distribution network. Short- term weakness, if any should be an add-on opportunity. Reiterate BUY; TP of Rs 1,052 @ 22x FY21E EPS.
We believe that GOLIL will continue to deliver 3x-4x times the industry volume growth. GOLIL’s business model is right on all key drivers, which has resulted in consistent market share gain in the past and the trend is likely to continue. Distribution expansion and brand thrust will enable GOLIL to play the opportunity. The tie-up with OEMs, investment in the distribution chain, and product innovationwill drive GOLIL’s performance. Maintain Buy, with a TP of Rs1,017 based on 20x FY21E earnings.
GOL’s focus on personal mobility, OEMs and improvements in product mix will remain its key driver as it commands a lower market share (>7%) giving ample headroom to cover. New OEM tie-ups through aggressive marketing are also expected to help GOL gain market share. However, upcomingdisruptions like those of electric vehicles and the company’s strategy todefend the same will be the key decider, going ahead. We value the company at 20x FY21E EPS of Rs 45.1 to arrive at a target price of Rs 900.
We are positive on RHF’s presence in an under-served market and handle on the self- employed segment. However, current challenges are likely to reset its near-term growth and NIMs, which will render earnings vulnerable. Moreover, RHF is running tight on the ALM mismatch; this will be an additional challenge amid currently tight liquidity. The stock is trading at 1.3x FY20E P/ABV. We maintain ‘HOLD/SU’.