In Q1FY21E, GSPL’s transmission volumes are expected to decline as the extended lockdown led to lower CNG & industrial PNG demand from Gujarat. However, in the long run, the transmission business is expected to report stable volumes, adjusting for lower refinery volumes, in the backdrop of growth in CGD & PNG sectors and increased LNG capacity in Gujarat. The management indicated at capacity expansion due to new LNG terminals and to support pipelines of its subsidiaries for expansion outside Gujarat. However, an expected downward revision of transmission tariffs will have an impact on the profitability of the company from H2FY21E. Also, nearly 50% of GSPL value is derived from its listed CGD entity Gujarat Gas (54.1% stake) and unlisted Sabarmati Gas, which commands holding company discount. Hence, investors should prefer directly investing in Gujarat Gas instead of GSPL. We value GSPL on a SOTP basis with investments at ~Rs127/share and standalone business at ~Rs 123/share to arrive at a target price of | 250. We downgrade the stock from BUY to HOLD recommendation.