DART view: In line quarter; ECD grew strongly: Maintain Buy The Q1FY19 results were in line with our estimates. The ECD growth was strong, with seasonal impetus for fans and pumps. However, price erosion continued in the B2B lighting, falling 5-7% YoY. Although Crompton, is trying to offset it with premium products in B2C. Lighting margins contracted 631bps QoQ, on account of higher A&P spend and accounting provisions, while EBIT margins for ECD expanded, due to better product mix. We maintain our Sales/EBITDA/PAT in FY20E, and expect the company to report a sales/PAT CAGR of 15%/17%, respectively, over FY19-21E. We view the company as a good adjunct between Havells and V-Guard, and maintain Buy, with an unchanged TP of 275, valuing the stock at 31x for FY21E.
Brighter (lighting) days ahead Crompton’s 1Q performance was a mixed bag with beat in ECD while miss on lighting. Co’s success in ECD with market share gains in fans and higher aggression in appliances was encouraging. Lighting disappoints with legacy issues (conventional lighting) and investments in B2B. We cut EPS by 2-3% over FY20-21E. We value co at 35x on Jun-21 EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 304.
We like CROMPTON for its strong product portfolio, established brand, market leadership, wide distribution network, robust RoE/RoCE profile and healthy free cash flow generating business model. We maintain our Buy rating with TP of INR270 (30x Mar’21 EPS).
With continued strong demand for new launches, market leadership and robust distribution network, we expect CGCEL’s earnings to clock 14% CAGR through FY19-21E, while RoCE is likely to improve to 42.7% in FY21E (from 40.8% in FY19). At CMP, the stock trades at 30.6x of FY20 and 25.6x of FY20 earnings. Valuing at 35x P/E to its FY20E EPS, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with an revised Target Price of Rs290 (from Rs297).
CGCEL aims to sustain healthy growth and margin led by premiumisation, meaningful innovation, cost reduction, augmentation of distribution network and scaling-up of new product categories. We have marginally tweaked our earnings estimates and maintained Buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs285 based on 35x FY21E earnings.
We retain our positive stance on Crompton given 1) success of new launches in emerging segments like Geysers and Air Coolers 2) rising innovations with products like Anti-Bac, Air Buddy, Aura Fluidic and Crest Mini in mature categories 3) deeper distribution reach (through GTM) 4) increasing focus on brand building and 5) gains from cost optimization program (Unnati). We estimate 20% PAT CAGR over FY19-21 and value the stock at 33x June 21 EPS of Rs9. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rs297 (earlier Rs284)
We marginally lower our sales/EBITDA/PAT estimates by 3%/4%/1%, respectively, in FY20E, and expect the company to report a sales/PAT CAGR of 15%/17%, respectively, over FY19-21E. We view the company as a good adjunct between Havells and V-Guard, and maintain Buy, with an unchanged TP of Rs275, valuing the stock at 31x for FY21E.
However, with commodity pressure subsiding, strong growth potential in Electronic Consumer Durables (ECD) segment, strong LED volume growth, increasing GTM (Go to Market) reach in distribution, thrust on innovation & cost optimization, we remain positive on long term growth prospects. We estimate 20% PAT CAGR over FY19-21 and value the stock at 33x March 21 EPS. Maintain Buy with a target price of Rs284 (earlier Rs272).