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COALINDIA Share Price Target
Coal India Ltd.
NSE: COALINDIA | BSE: 533278 | ISIN: INE522F01014 | Sector: Mining
COALINDIA Rating
- ★★
- ★★
- ★★
- ★★
- ★★
3.8/5 (17 Ratings)
COALINDIA Share Price *
179.35 +0 (0%)
* (quote may be delayed)
14 COALINDIA share price target reports by brokerages below. See what is analyst's view on COALINDIA share price forecast, rating, estimates, valuation and prediction behind the target. You may use these research report forecasts for long-term to medium term for your investment or trades in 2020.
You can also find COALINDIA share price target tomorrow or next week from COALINDIA discussion forum.
COALINDIA Share Price Forecast - Consensus
| No. of reports in last year | 14 |
| No. of analysts | 5 |
| Average Consensus Forecast | 254.14 |
| Consensus Potential | 28.54% |
COALINDIA Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2020
Prabhudas Lilladher
12-Feb-20
Price @ Call: 179.35
Target: 225
ACCUMULATE
COAL underperformed Nifty by a wide margin of 28%/23% over One-year/six- month. The underperformance has been largely due to unabated stock supply by its promoter, Govt of India. Resultantly, valuations fell to all-time low with EV/EBITDA of 2.5x and P/E of 5.3x FY21E, pushing dividend yield to near- highs of 9%. Regular stock supply restrains us to upgrade the stock despite attractive valuations and better earnings outlook. Hence, we maintain Accumulate with TP of Rs225 (earlier Rs230), EV/EBITDA of 4x FY21E.
COALINDIA Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2019
Motilal Oswal
12-Nov-19
Price @ Call: 208.88
Target: 278
BUY
Over the medium term, we expect volumes to continue growing at 5-6%. Besides, COAL has managed to keep cost under control on the back of productivity measures and shutting down of old mines. Ongoing efficiency measures, along with growth in volumes, should drive 4% adj. EBITDA CAGR over FY19-21 – despite a high base of FY19. The stock trades attractively at ~3x FY21E EV/adj. EBITDA (v/s historical average of 7x), P/E of 7-8x (v/s average of ~14x) and offers a dividend yield of ~9%. We value the stock on 4.5x FY21E EV/EBITDA at INR278/sh. Maintain Buy.
Prabhudas Lilladher
11-Nov-19
Price @ Call: 208.88
Target: 235
ACCUMULATE
Stock has underperformed Nifty by a wide margin of 30%/20% on One- year/six-month basis. The underperformance has been largely due to unabated stock supply by its promoter (Govt of India). This has put valuations in an attractive territory with EV/EBITDA of 3.0x and P/E of 6.0x FY20E. Admittedly, the stake sale by Govt would continue to remain headwind on the stock performance. However, the current valuations with dividend yield at 7%+ prices in the concerns associated with sub-optimal volumes and stake sale. Hence, we maintain Accumulate with TP of Rs235.
Edelweiss
3-Sep-19
Price @ Call: 183.17
Target: 235
BUY
Production woes likely over; maintain ‘BUY’. We expect CIL’s production/offtake volume to show an uptick Q3FY20 onwards mainly due to a pick-up in business at MCL and SECL. While BCCL remains a concern, we do not believe our FY20E offtake of 638mt is at risk. Maintain ‘BUY/SO’with a TP of INR235/share. The stock is trading at 6.8x FY21E EPS.
Motilal Oswal
9-Sep-19
Price @ Call: 198.5
Target: 264
BUY
We highlight India’s divergence from other major coal-consuming economies (US, China) in terms of coal consumption. In our view, from India’s standpoint, coal is here to stay, despite increasing renewable generation (unless storage technology develops). At current price, COAL’s market cap = 12 years of its discounted FCF. We reiterate our Buy rating with a TP of INR264 (36% upside).
Edelweiss
16-Aug-19
Price @ Call: 201.03
Target: 235
BUY
We believe that CIL will achieve production growth of 4.5% YoY in FY20E driven by a
spurt in H2FY20. FSA realisation too is likely to be stable as more coal is being diverted
to the non-power segment (which fetches a premium). Maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with an
unchanged TP of INR235 on December 2020E EPS, implying an exit 8.5x FY21E EPS.
spurt in H2FY20. FSA realisation too is likely to be stable as more coal is being diverted
to the non-power segment (which fetches a premium). Maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with an
unchanged TP of INR235 on December 2020E EPS, implying an exit 8.5x FY21E EPS.
Motilal Oswal
13-Aug-19
Price @ Call: 207.44
Target: 278
BUY
The stock trades attractively at ~3x FY20E EV/adj. EBITDA (v/s historical average of 7x), P/E of 7-8x (v/s average of ~14x) and offers dividend yield of ~9-10%. We value the stock on 4.5x (v/s 5x earlier) FY20E EV/EBITDA at INR278/share. Maintain Buy.
Prabhudas Lilladher
14-Aug-19
Price @ Call: 204.2
Target: 235
ACCUMULATE
Marginally short of estimates; Beaten down valuations drive upgrade
Stock has fallen sharply due to unabated stock supply by Govt of India and weak operational performance. This has made stock attractive on valuations with EV/EBITDA of 3.0x and P/E of 6.3x FY20E. Hence, we upgrade the stock to Accumulate with TP of Rs235.
Stock has fallen sharply due to unabated stock supply by Govt of India and weak operational performance. This has made stock attractive on valuations with EV/EBITDA of 3.0x and P/E of 6.3x FY20E. Hence, we upgrade the stock to Accumulate with TP of Rs235.
Motilal Oswal
18-Jun-19
Price @ Call: 258.94
Target: 310
BUY
We expect average e-auction realizations to decline by ~INR400/t in FY20 on the back of higher domestic availability and lower international coal prices. However, high natural attrition should continue driving operating efficiencies. This, along with continued growth in volumes (our est. 5-6%), is likely to drive 5% EPS CAGR over FY19-21 – despite the high base of FY19. We note that COAL’s FY19 EBITDA has doubled from FY17 levels. Despite this, the stock has witnessed significant de-rating over the last 2-3 years. The stock trades attractively at ~4x FY20E EV/adj. EBITDA (v/s historical average of 7x), P/E of 8-9x (v/s average of ~14x) and offers a dividend yield of ~8%. We value the stock on 5x FY20E EV/EBITDA at INR310. Maintain Buy.
ICICIdirect.com
18-Jun-19
Price @ Call: 255.2
Target: 275
HOLD
Coal India has guided for sales volume growth of 8.7% during FY20E. However, for the first couple of months of FY20, CIL’s production has witnessed a flattish trend. Hence, going forward, the trend of CIL’s volumegrowth is likely to remain a key monitorable. We keep intact our estimates and maintain our HOLD rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 275.
HDFC Securities
4-Jun-19
Price @ Call: 260.55
Target: 199
SELL
COAL needs to spend c40+% (FY15-21E) of OCF on capex, yet EBIT growth is mainly driven by price hikes. COAL is a cash (dividend) cow as it pays all FCF after capex as dividends. In our view, this is the only benefit that minority shareholders get. We thus believe a realistic way to value COAL is to focus on its dividend paying potential, hence we use DDM to value COAL. We maintain our SELL rating on COAL with a TP of Rs199.
Prabhudas Lilladher
31-May-19
Price @ Call: 253.19
Target: 265
HOLD
Volumes growth continued to remain weak due to structural issues related toland acquisition, logistics and statutory clearances. Volumes for Apr’19 grewby 2.6% YoY, however, we factor in 5.3%/5.5% growth in FY20e/FY21e. Given the weak outlook on volumes and deteriorating B/S (resulting in dividend cuts), we reiterate Hold with TP of Rs265, P/E of 9.8x FY21E.
Edelweiss
4-Apr-19
Price @ Call: 235.05
Target: 243
HOLD
Coal India’s (CIL) shipments in FY19 surpassed the 600mt mark for the first time ever; the 4.7% YoY increase was broadly in line with our expectation. Key highlights: 1) production & sales in March were at 79.2mt and 59.6mt, respectively; 2) the eagerly awaited Tori-Shivpur line was completed in September 2018 & is now operational; and 3) pit-head inventory grew to 53.8mt at FY19 end & should improve coal availability hereon. Going ahead, we expect e-auction premium to dip given the inventory buildup in the upcoming summer months. Maintain ‘HOLD’ with INR243 target price. The stock is currently trading at 9.6x FY21E EPS.
Motilal Oswal
21-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 215.3
Target: 281
BUY
Valuations at 50% discount to its averages and dividend yield at 9-10%:
Coal India (COAL) has witnessed unprecedented de-rating over the past 2-3 years. Its stock is currently trading at 7.4x P/E v/s average of 14x (Exhibit 1:), despite strong RoE at 35-40% (Exhibit 2:) and 3.5x EV/EBITDA v/s average of 7.2x (Exhibit 3:). The company continues to generate strong free cash flows (Exhibit 4:), which allows it to distribute dividends in excess of 100% of earnings (Exhibit 5:). Currently, dividend yield has increased to 9-10% with current valuations at 45-50% discount to long-term averages, which is a typical trait of a commodity stock at the peak of an earnings cycle. But, the same is perplexing in the case of COAL as 81% of its revenue is non-cyclical. Selling price of FSA coal is currently at 50% discount to E-auction prices i.e. market price, which means there is still significant pricing power left with the company. Only 19% of the revenue is subject to the market price of coal and is cyclical in nature. If we were to model historically the lowest E- auction price of INR1,536/t (in FY17), the stock would still be trading at 4.3x EV/EBITDA, P/E of 9.2x and dividend yield of ~8%, which means valuations would still range between 35-40% discount to historical averages.
Coal India (COAL) has witnessed unprecedented de-rating over the past 2-3 years. Its stock is currently trading at 7.4x P/E v/s average of 14x (Exhibit 1:), despite strong RoE at 35-40% (Exhibit 2:) and 3.5x EV/EBITDA v/s average of 7.2x (Exhibit 3:). The company continues to generate strong free cash flows (Exhibit 4:), which allows it to distribute dividends in excess of 100% of earnings (Exhibit 5:). Currently, dividend yield has increased to 9-10% with current valuations at 45-50% discount to long-term averages, which is a typical trait of a commodity stock at the peak of an earnings cycle. But, the same is perplexing in the case of COAL as 81% of its revenue is non-cyclical. Selling price of FSA coal is currently at 50% discount to E-auction prices i.e. market price, which means there is still significant pricing power left with the company. Only 19% of the revenue is subject to the market price of coal and is cyclical in nature. If we were to model historically the lowest E- auction price of INR1,536/t (in FY17), the stock would still be trading at 4.3x EV/EBITDA, P/E of 9.2x and dividend yield of ~8%, which means valuations would still range between 35-40% discount to historical averages.
ICICIdirect.com
15-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 217
Target: 225
HOLD
Coal India reported muted e-auction volumes for Q3FY19. E-auction volumes were at 14.7 MT (down 44% YoY, 17% QoQ). Hence, we downward revise e-auction volumes of FY19E to 67.5 MT (from 75 MT earlier) and to 65 MT for FY20E (from 75 MT earlier). On account of the subdued trend in sales volumes over the last couple of months, we downward revise our FY19E sales volume to 610 MT (from 625 MT earlier) and to 625 MT for FY20E (from 650 MT earlier). On account of the muted trend witnessed in higher margin e-auction volumes, we downward revise our EV/EBITDA multiples. We now value the stock at 5.5x FY20E adjusted EV/EBITDA and arrive at a target price of Rs 225. We have a HOLD recommendation on the stock.
HDFC Securities
14-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 220.3
Target: 199
SELL
Motilal Oswal
13-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 222.95
Target: 338
BUY
Prabhudas Lilladher
13-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 222.4
Target: 250
NEUTRAL
Motilal Oswal
8-Jan-19
Price @ Call: 234.31
Target: 338
BUY
Edelweiss
3-Jan-19
Price @ Call: 237
Target: 325
BUY
COALINDIA Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2018
Prabhudas Lilladher
26-Dec-18
Price @ Call: 248.4
Target: 270
HOLD
HDFC Securities
19-Dec-18
Price @ Call: 252.25
Target: 199
SELL
Prabhudas Lilladher
13-Nov-18
Price @ Call: 264.05
Target: 330
BUY
Centrum
12-Oct-18
Price @ Call: 276.43
Target: 365
BUY
Edelweiss
5-Sep-18
Price @ Call: 274.91
Target: 325
BUY
ICICIdirect.com
17-Aug-18
Price @ Call: 282.45
Target: 300
HOLD
Prabhudas Lilladher
13-Aug-18
Price @ Call: 276
Target: 340
BUY
Motilal Oswal
13-Aug-18
Price @ Call: 276
Target: 345
BUY
Edelweiss
2-Aug-18
Price @ Call: 270.3
Target: 325
BUY
Edelweiss
12-Jul-18
Price @ Call: 265.25
Target: 325
BUY
Edelweiss
31-May-18
Price @ Call: 295.54
Target: 325
HOLD
Prabhudas Lilladher
1-Jun-18
Price @ Call: 294.5
Target: 340
BUY
Motilal Oswal
30-May-18
Price @ Call: 282.15
Target: 394
BUY
Motilal Oswal
27-Apr-18
Price @ Call: 286.78
Target: 397
BUY
JM Financial
2-Apr-18
Price @ Call: 278.07
Target: 350
BUY
Reliance Securities
26-Feb-18
Price @ Call: 313.19
Target: 339
BUY
Motilal Oswal
22-Feb-18
Price @ Call: 310.9
Target: 401
BUY
Prabhudas Lilladher
12-Feb-18
Price @ Call: 300.45
Target: 365
BUY
Motilal Oswal
11-Feb-18
Price @ Call: 300.15
Target: 401
BUY
Prabhudas Lilladher
9-Jan-18
Price @ Call: 287.85
Target: 365
BUY
ICICIdirect.com
9-Jan-18
Price @ Call: 287.85
Target: 330
HOLD
COALINDIA Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2017
Motilal Oswal
20-Dec-17
Price @ Call: 270.22
Target: 335
BUY
Reliance Securities
17-Nov-17
Price @ Call: 271.59
Target: 301
BUY
HDFC Securities
14-Nov-17
Price @ Call: 276.1
Target: 305
BUY
Motilal Oswal
13-Nov-17
Price @ Call: 284.65
Target: 335
BUY
Motilal Oswal
2-Nov-17
Price @ Call: 290.87
Target: 335
BUY
Motilal Oswal
11-Oct-17
Price @ Call: 285.5
Target: 335
BUY
Reliance Securities
26-Sep-17
Price @ Call: 256.95
Target: 301
BUY
Motilal Oswal
11-Sep-17
Price @ Call: 254.45
Target: 305
BUY
Reliance Securities
5-Sep-17
Price @ Call: 246.4
Target: 301
BUY
Reliance Securities
23-Aug-17
Price @ Call: 240.05
Target: 301
BUY
HDFC Securities
23-Aug-17
Price @ Call: 240.05
Target: 300
BUY
Motilal Oswal
17-Aug-17
Price @ Call: 237.05
Target: 275
BUY
Edelweiss
16-Aug-17
Price @ Call: 238.65
Target: 285
BUY
Reliance Securities
6-Jun-17
Price @ Call: 263
Target: 301
BUY
ICICIdirect.com
5-Jun-17
Price @ Call: 266
Target: 280
HOLD
Edelweiss
29-May-17
Price @ Call: 267
Target: 295
BUY
Motilal Oswal
2-May-17
Price @ Call: 275
Target: 335
BUY
Motilal Oswal
18-Apr-17
Price @ Call: 279
Target: 335
BUY
Investment Imperative
18-Apr-17
Price @ Call: 285.8
Target: 261
SELL
HDFC Securities
13-Feb-17
Price @ Call: 325
Target: 369
BUY
Centrum
14-Feb-17
Price @ Call: 321
Target: 355
BUY
ICICIdirect.com
14-Feb-17
Price @ Call: 317
Target: 360
BUY
Edelweiss
13-Feb-17
Price @ Call: 321
Target: 360
BUY
Religare
10-Feb-17
Price @ Call: 324.5
Target: 345
BUY
ICICIdirect.com
16-Jan-17
Price @ Call: 314
Target: 360
BUY
COALINDIA Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2016
ICICIdirect.com
15-Dec-16
Price @ Call: 292
Target: 340
BUY
Edelweiss
14-Dec-16
Price @ Call: 292
Target: 340
BUY
Reliance Securities
25-Oct-16
Price @ Call: 320.1
Target: 346
BUY
Kotak Securities
30-Sep-16
Price @ Call: 327.3
Target: 315
REDUCE
Centrum
19-Sep-16
Price @ Call: 327.65
Target: 375
BUY
Motilal Oswal
14-Sep-16
Price @ Call: 331
Target: 350
NEUTRAL
Edelweiss
14-Sep-16
Price @ Call: 324
Target: 351
BUY
Motilal Oswal
1-Sep-16
Price @ Call: 333
Target: 370
BUY
Religare
14-Sep-16
Price @ Call: 324.2
Target: 350
BUY
Edelweiss
31-Aug-16
Price @ Call: 334
Target: 367
BUY
Powermywealth.com
13-Jul-16
Price @ Call: 321.65
Target: 365
HOLD
Edelweiss
1-Jun-16
Price @ Call: 297
Target: 349
BUY
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COALINDIA Peer Stocks - Share Price Targets
SOURCE: Data from D'Market via Quandl. Intraday data delayed 15 minutes.
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