5 CHENNPETRO share price target reports by brokerages below. See what is analyst's view on CHENNPETRO share price forecast, rating, estimates, valuation and prediction behind the target. You may use these research report forecasts for long-term to medium term for your investment or trades in 2020.
Due to lower global petroleum product demand, the refining margins are expected to remain under pressure in FY21. Additionally, the on-going lockdown in India will also impact fuel consumption resulting in lower sales volume. We have accordingly built-in the same in our valuation model and revised our earnings. We expect CPCL to report an EPS of Rs. -56 in FY21E (earlier Rs.24) and Rs. 12 in FY22E (earlier Rs.32) supported by better distillate yields and improved margins in FY22E. We believe that the stock is attractively valued at 1.2x P/BV in FY22E. Considering the strategic importance of CPCL’s refinery in the southern India, and strong promoter back ground, we believe the financial performance will improve in the medium to long term. Current valuation offers a great investment opportunity to long term investors, we opine.We recommend BUY (earlier ADD) on the stock with a price target of Rs.59/share (earlier Rs161). We have valued CPCL based on PE multiple of 5x FY22E earnings, which is at a significant discount to its peers considering its lower size, NCI, and volatile refining margin profile.
We expect regional GRMs to stabilize in H1FY21 as concerns of trade-war are fading. We are introducing FY22E earnings and valuing the stock accordingly. We expect CPCL to report an EPS of Rs.24 in FY21E and Rs.32 in FY22E supported by better distillate yields and improved margins. We believe that the stock is reasonably valued at 6.1x EV/EBIDTA on FY22E. Post our previous BUY recommendation the stock has already moved up by ~35% and hence, due to limited upside, we now recommend ADD on the stock with a price target of Rs.161/share. We have valued CPCL based on PE multiple of 5x FY22, which is at a significant discount to its peers considering its lower size, NCI, and volatile refining margin profile. Also, CPCL is a standalone and has a very high earnings sensitivity to GRMs.
We expect regional GRM to remain stable in H1FY21 as concerns of trade- war are fading. We have revised our earnings projection and expect CPCL to report an EPS of Rs.4.4 in FY20E (earlier ~Rs.9.9) and Rs. 27.7 in FY21E (earlier ~Rs.34) supported by better distillate yields and higher crude throughput in FY21. We believe that the stock is reasonably valued at 6.1x EV/EBIDTA on FY21E. We recommend ADD rating on the stock with a revised price target of Rs.139/share (earlier Rs.171/share). We have valued CPCL based on PE multiple of 5x FY21, which is at a significant discount to its peers considering its lower size, NCI, and volatile refining margin profile.
We have incorporated H1FY20 results and revised our earnings estimate. Hence, we now expect CPCL to report an EPS of Rs.9.9 in FY20E and Rs.34.1/- in FY21E supported by better distillate yields, and higher crude throughput. We believe that the stock is reasonably valued at 4.6x EV/EBIDTA and 4.7x PE on FY21E. We maintain ADD on the stock with a revised price target of Rs.171/share (earlier Rs.189/share). We have valued CPCL based on PE multiple of 5x FY21, which is at a significant discount to its peers considering its size, NCI, and inferior refining margin profile.
In Q1FY20, the company reported dismal performance due to fall in GRMs. The same is expected to improve in Q2FY20 as the benchmark Singapore GRMs has recovered meaningfully. Benchmark Singapore refining margin has increased to US$ 6.4/bbl (average) in Q2FY20 till date due to better diesel cracks (US$15.3/bbl), Petrol cracks (US$7/bbl), Jet cracks (US$13.5/bbl) and Naphtha cracks (US$7.6/bbl). We have incorporated Q1FY20 results and revised our earnings estimate. Hence, we now expect CPCL to report an EPS of Rs.7.9 in FY20E and Rs.41.6/- (earlier Rs. 51.3) in FY21E supported by better distillate yields and higher crude throughput.We believe that the stock is reasonably valued at 4.4x EV/EBIDTA and 4.7x PE on FY21E. We maintain ADD on the stock with a revised price target of Rs.208/share (earlier Rs.257/share). We have valued CPCL based on PE multiple of 5x FY21, which is at a significant discount to its peers considering its size, NCI, and lower refining margin profile.
We have tweaked our earnings and now expect CPCL to report an EPS of Rs.7.5 in FY20E (earlier ~Rs.8) and Rs. 47.9 in FY21E (earlier ~Rs.51.3) supported by better distillate yields and higher crude throughput. We believe that the stock is reasonably valued at 4.3x EV/EBIDTA on FY21E. We continue to recommend ADD on the stock with a revised price target of Rs.239/share (earlier Rs.257/share). We have valued CPCL based on PE multiple of 5x FY21, which is at a significant discount to its peers considering its size, NCI, and lower refining margin profile. Also, CPCL is a standalone and simple refiner and has a very high earning sensitivity to GRM. Hence, earnings disappointment is high on account of weak GRMs.
We expect regional GRM to remain stable (at US$5.5/bbl) as global refining capacity addition is likely to be in line with oil demand growth. We are introducing FY21E earnings and roll-forward our valuation to FY21E earnings. Further, CPCL’s GRM should see some gains accruing from the residue up- gradation project and the diesel hydro desulphurization unit. Hence, we now expect CPCL to report an EPS of Rs.8 in FY20E and Rs. 51.3 in FY21E supported by better distillate yields and higher crude throughput. We believe that the stock is reasonably valued at 4.2x EV/EBIDTA on FY21E. We now recommend ADD (earlier BUY) on the stock with a revised price target of Rs.257/share (earlier Rs.301/share). We have valued CPCL based on PE multiple of 5x FY21, which is at a significant discount to its peers considering its size, NCI, and lower refinery margin profile.
We have revised our earnings to reflect 9MFY19 results and lower GRMs. Hence, we now expect CPCL to report an EPS of Rs.60 in FY20E (earlier Rs. 63) supported by better distillate yields, weaker INR/USD and higher crude throughput. At CMP, we believe that the stock is attractively valued at a PE of 4x FY20E earnings. We maintain BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs.301/share (earlier Rs.314/share). We have valued CPCL based on PE multiple of 5x FY20, which is at a significant discount to its peers.
SOURCE: Data from D'Market via Quandl. Intraday data delayed 15 minutes.
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