Berger’s performance has been better than peers and is indicative of continuedmarket share gains. Reduction in GST rates can drive further improvement in demand. Continued strong quarterly performance, ahead of the peers has impelled us to increase our estimates for Berger. For Berger, now we estimate 10% volume CAGR over FY19 – FY21E with improvement in operating margins and return ratios. However, the valuations at the current price and factoring growth prospects looks stretched. Maintain SELL with an increased TP of Rs 325 (from Rs 300) at 46x FY21E earnings in line with valuation of peers.
We are positive on the long term fundamentals of the domestic decorative business on account of Housing for all, Swachh Bharat Abhiyan and premiumisation; however, benign real estate demand will continue to act as a headwind for domestic decorative demand in the near term. At CMP of INR 316, the stock is trading at 48.4XFY20E and 40.2XFY21E earnings. We are valuing the company 44XFY20E EPS to arrive at a target price of INR 346 (earlier: INR 353) and maintain OUTPERFORMER rating.