13 ASIANPAINT share price target reports by brokerages below. See what is analyst's view on ASIANPAINT share price forecast, rating, estimates, valuation and prediction behind the target. You may use these research report forecasts for long-term to medium term for your investment or trades in 2020.
APNT remains optimistic of sustaining June sales trend (14% volume growth) amidst strong demand from Tier2/4 cities (less Covid 19 Impact) and repainting (more time spent at home) even as poor demand from real estate and downtrading remains a near term challenge. Easing of lockdown norms and safe painting campaign has boded well for the company, although Near term pressures in Metros and Tier1 cities, rising spread of Covid19 in smaller cities and sporadic lockdowns remain a key risk. Input cost environment although favorable, is expected to remain volatile. Despite near term challenges, we remain positive in the structural growth story due to 1) product portfolio straddling across price points 2) Scope in entry level paints given deep distribution (2x nearest competitor) and success of new products. We marginally tweak our estimates and expect revenues to grow -1.8% in FY21 and 20% in FY22. We value the stock at 45x Sep-22 EPS of 40.7 and arrive at a target price of 1829 (Earlier Rs1857). Retain Accumulate
Company continued to report decent growth in its revenue. Revenues stood at Rs. 5420.28 cr in quarter ended in Dec 2019 as compared to Rs 5050.66 cr in Sep 2019 quarter and Rs 5263.04 cr in the quarter ended in Dec 2018. The Company reported growth of 7.32% on QoQ basis and 2.99% on a YoY basis. The Company has shown increase in its operating profits by 24.57% on QoQ basis and 7.69% on YoY basis. PAT of the company decreased by 8.33% on QoQ basis but increased by 20.18%on YoY basis to Rs. 760.5 cr in Dec 2019 quarter. The Operating Profit margin increased by 304 basis points for Q3 on QoQ basis and by 96 basis points on YoY basis. The Net Profit margin decreased by 240 basis points for Q3 on QoQ basis but increased by 201 basis points on YoY basis. EPS stood at Rs 7.97 per share in the relevant quarter vs Rs 8.58 per share in the last quarter and Rs 6.63 per share in Dec 2018 quarter.
We expect volume to grow at double digit led by higher share from economy emulsion and pick up in rural demand. However, demand for decorative paints remain tepid which will impact value growth. Benign raw material expenses provide support to margins despite higher advertisement expenses. We roll forward our estimate to FY22E and maintain our HOLD rating, based on a P/E of 44x on FY22EPS.
We believe Asian Paint would record volume CAGR of 13% in FY19-22E supported by demand remaining intact in rural markets. The company is likely to maintain its leadership position in the decorative paint category without diluting EBITDA margin owing to its strong brand. We roll over our valuation to FY22E and maintain BUY rating with a target price of Rs 2050.
We believe Asian Paint would record volume CAGR of 13% in FY19-22E supported by demand remaining intact in rural markets. The company is likely to maintain its leadership position in the decorative paint category without diluting EBITDA margin owing to its strong brand. We roll over our valuation to FY22E and maintain BUY rating with a target price of Rs 2050.
APNT continued to deliver robust volume growth driven by high share of lower value products thereby leading to slower value growth in last 10 quarters. We remain neutral given weaker demand for high value decorative paints is likely to keep revenue growth volatile in the near- term. Whilst the current raw material prices don’t warrant any further price actions, further price cuts for sustaining market share and pushing high-value products are the key risks to growth in operating profit. Rolling over our estimates to FY22E, we maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs1,850, which implies 4% upside from the CMP.
Although APNT has taken 1% cumulative price cuts in FY20, benign crude prices would enable 220bps margin expansion in FY20 and steady margins thereafter. We cut our EPS estimates of FY20,21 and FY22 by 1.5,2.5% and 0.4% respectively and estimate 18% PBT CAGR over FY20-22. We value the stock at 45xFY22 EPS of 40.3 and arrive at a target price of 1815 (Earlier Rs1822). Retain Accumulate
Compared to our estimates, APNT delivered a relatively muted performance on revenue and operational front (2%/14% miss) despite a healthy 15% volume growth amid challenging conditions. A weaker mix (in favour of putty sales) down by 6% led to just 9% growth in topline. APNTs conscious strategy to push lower end (putty/distemper) sales and slower growth in premium products could keep EBITDA Margins under check going ahead (despite RM tailwinds seen in Q2FY20). However, this strategy should yield in healthy volume growth and market share gains. However, we remain positive over the long term as 1) continued urbanization; 2) wide product portfolio providing value to customer across price points; 3) distribution expansion in Tier II/Tier III towns and 4) premiumization will drive earnings. Further, to factor in lower tax rate we revise our estimates leading to revision in rating to “BUY” and TP to Rs. 1,976 (50x Sept 2021E).
We expect decorative volumes to sustain riding likely demand shift from theunorganised segment (~30%). This, coupled with APL’s capability to hike prices, shouldhelp maintain margin. Rolling forward, our revised TP comes to INR2,050 (55x, 12- month forward PE). Maintain ‘BUY/SO’. The stock is trading at 47.8x FY21E EPS.
We believe despite extended monsoons, the company has recorded strong volume growth in Q2FY20 with margin expansion. We revise our earnings estimate up by 6% and 4% for FY20E and FY21E, respectively. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 2050/share.
Although APNT has taken 0.8% price cuts in 1H, Soft crude prices would enable maintain margins. We increase our EPS estimates of FY20-21 by 7.6- 1.2% as we incorporate one-time deferred tax re-measurement and estimate 23% Adj. PAT CAGR over FY19-22 and 15% PAT CAGR over FY20-22. We value the stock at 45xFY22 EPS of 41.2 and arrive at a target price of 1855 (Earlier Rs1640 at 45xJune21 EPS). Retain Accumulate
We model revenue, earning CAGR of 16%, 20%, respectively, led by ~14% volume growth. We believe pressure on gross margin (due to change in product mix coupled with higher raw material cost) will ease, going forward, supported by a change in mix. However, at the current multiple, the stock offers limited upside. Hence, we change our rating from BUY to HOLD with a revised target price of Rs1550/share.
Valuation & Outlook: We model revenue, earning CAGR of 16%, 20%, respectively, led by ~14% volume growth. We believe pressure on gross margin (due to change in product mix coupled with higher raw material cost) will ease, going forward, supported by a change in mix. However, at the current multiple, the stock offers limited upside. Hence, we change our rating from BUY to HOLD with a revised target price of 1550/share.
We remain positive in the structural growth story due to 1) portfolio to straddle through price points and deep distribution 2) strong pricing power given 7.4% price increase in the calendar year (0.4% price cut in 1Q) and 3) lower share of Automotive/ Industrial paints (5% of Consol sales) which faces demand pressure in near term. We increase EPS estimates by 2.3-2.6% and now estimate CAGR of 14% in revenue and 20.5% in Adj. PAT over FY19-21. We value the stock at 45xJune21 EPS of 33.8 and arrive at a target price of 1533 (Earlier Rs1433). Retain Accumulate.
We expect the decent decorative volumes to sustain led by improving macro parameters, demand and likely shift thereof from the unorganised (~30%) to organised segment. This, coupled with APL’s ability to hike prices, should keep APL in good stead. We maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with TP of INR1,570. The stock is trading at 41.7x FY21E PE.
Owing to challenging macro environment, pressure on rural growth and auto sector could impact the near term performance. While, there could be surge in FCF as capex normalizes volume growth could be a challenge in the near term. However, over the long term we like the narrative of delivering growth by focussing on distribution expansion and changing consumption patterns especially in rural areas. We maintain “BUY” with arevised TP of Rs. 1,510 (45x FY21E EPS).
We expect volume to grow at double digit due to pick up in demand for distempers and low-end emulsion. However, margin pressure and high valuation will impact stock price. We therefore revise our rating to Reduce and value at a P/E of 40x on FY21EPS.
We model revenue, earning CAGR of 15%, 17%, respectively, led by ~14% volume growth. We believe pressure on gross margin (due to change in product mix coupled and higher raw material cost) will ease, going forward, supported by price hikes. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 1535/share.
We remain positive in APNT’s structural growth story due to 1) likely benefits of GST rate reduction given ability to straddle through price points and deepdistribution 2) strong pricing power given 7.4% price increase since March’18 and 3) lower share of Automotive/ Industrial paints which will face more pressure in near term. We estimate 12.6% and 19.2% revenue and Adj. PAT CAGR over FY19-21. We value the stock at 45xFY21 EPS and arrive at a target price of 1433. Retain Accumulate.
SOURCE: Data from D'Market via Quandl. Intraday data delayed 15 minutes.
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