Company will introduce modular platform across its entire product portfolio from April’20 along with BS-VI, which will allow customers to customize the products as per its utilization and will be an attractive value proposition for customers. New models on modular platform will come with right as well as left hand drive so it can be exported. This platform reduces manufacturing complexity and improves productivity, thus making operations more efficient. We believe that all these measures will help AL when the CV cycle revives. We have revised our volume forecast by -12%/-5%+5% and PAT forecast by -28%/-10%/11% for FY20/21/22. We raise our target multiple to 17x from 15x earlier (last 5 year average one year forward PER is 21x) as we expect a revival in CV cycle from FY21, led by better GDP growth and lower base. We expect 10%/14% YoY volume growth in FY21/22. Our revised target price is Rs92 and we maintain our BUY rating.
Ashok Leyland has been trading at its lower end (near mean -1 SD) of its PE based valuations for past several months and even a mean reversion to its historic valuation translates to a 10-15% upside in the stock from its current levels. With the CV cycle going through its trough, government focused on demand revival (as seen through various fiscal initiatives like tax cuts, accelerated depreciation), and other demand impetus such as discounts, festive season buying & pre-BS6 buying should lead to a rebound in prices of Ashok Leyland to its mean PE valuations. We maintain a BUY with a target price of Rs. 79
We revise Ashok Leyland Ltd (ALL) to a HOLD given the bleak demand environment on CV industry and broader economic slowdown. ALL being a dominant player in MHCV segment is well placed but the demand conditions may not pick up for entire FY20 if BS6 pre buying does not materialize. Exports would only pick up aggressively post expansion of product base and defense orders will come in H2FY20 which needs to be watched closely. We assign 14.1x P/E multiple to its FY21E consensus earnings of Rs. 5.1 per share with a target price of Rs. 72 per share giving a potential upside of 13%.
At CMP of Rs69, based on its core earnings, the stock is currently quoting at 9.1xFY21E earnings. We believe current valuations ignores ALL’s long term growthprospects and its competitive strength We retain our BUY rating on the stock with a revised price target Rs84 (13xFY21E core earnings + Rs7 Subsidiary Valuations).
The current pain in the market is roughly expected to continue till Q2 FY20. However, from Q2 onwards, for the next three quarters, we may see some recovery coming back in the form of BS VI pre-buying albeit at a slower rate. Good monsoon and higher influx of infra projects may drive demand. However, there lies a lot of uncertainty in demand based on current difficult market scenario. On the margin front, LCV merger, Modular program, cost cutting initiatives, price hikes etc will drive margins, however, higher discounting may steal the steam. Proactive measures taken in time to address the demand slowdown and market share gains during tough times gives us comfort. Reduction in inventories and limited capex growth will lead to maintenance of robust return ratios. With strong prospects for LCV business and increased focus from management, we still remain sanguine on the stock. We maintain BUY rating with a reduced target of ₹ 80 on uncertain volume outlook.
We estimate a -7%/6.6% volume growth in FY20/21 and an EPS CAGR of -10%, owing to margin pressure and higher tax rate. Management expects commodity prices to remain moderate, which will help stabilize margins. The company is also focusing on efficient cost management across all the functions and expects to save costs totaling to Rs5,000mn in the current year. The AL stock price has corrected 23% in the last one month and 42% in the last one year. We believe the stock post correction trades at an attractive valuation of 13x FY21E EPS and we value it at 15x to arrive at our TP of Rs80. We maintain our BUY rating. No pre-buying and prolonged slowdown in the industry remains the key risk to our rating.
1QFY20 PAT (-45% YoY) was significantly below estimates as negative operating leverage impacted margins. The demand outlook is weak, with the company scaling back on its capex plans. We reduce FY20/21 earnings by 20/15% to factor in the above. Reiterate NEUTRAL with a revised TP of Rs 77 (13x on FY21E EPS). While the stock has corrected, we recommend that investors should await an uptick in the cycle before investing in the stock.
We believe, these challenges are largely priced-in. On downcycle earnings (revenues/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of -2/-15/-16% in FY19-21), we value AL at 8x EV/EBITDA (20% discount to 5 year LPA ). We assign Rs13 to NBFC post 20% hold-co to arrive at target price of Rs75 (Mar-21) and downgrade the stock to Hold.
For ALL, we estimate sales CAGR of 2.8% over FY19-21E. EBITDA, however, is seen remaining under pressure in a rising cost scenario, with margins deteriorating by 90 bps to FY21E. PAT growth, however, is in the negative territory amid an increase in effective tax rate. ALL’s net debt free B/S and healthy return ratios profile (RoCE >25%), however, provides us some comfort. We value the stock at Rs 70 on SOTP basis, valuing the core CV business at 5.5x EV/EBITDA on FY21E numbers and assign 1x P/B on its long term investments. We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock.
Ashok Leyland (AL) reported a better than expected 4Q with PAT at Rs 6.65bn amidst a challenging environment. We are increasing our earnings estimates by ~6% on the back of the results. We value the company at 13x PE multiple on FY21 earnings. Our revised target price is Rs 100. We reiterate our NEUTRAL rating on the stock. We believe that while the stock could rally on expectations of a pickup in government’s infrastructure spend, it should be used to reduce holdings. AL has to contend with several headwinds including (1) A weakening product mix (post axle load norm change), (2) Aggressive competition (Tata Motors will launch several new variants this year) and, (3) A change in management at a time of transition to BSVI (the company is searching for a new CEO post Mr. Dasari’s departure).
Despite the negative impact of higher raw material price and slow pick up in the heavy truck segment, we believe the turnaround in the LCV segment and export orders will cushion the overall profitability for the near term. We lower our Revenue & PAT estimates for FY20 by 0.9%/5.2% respectively, to factor an increase in effective tax rate and Average selling price (ASP) due to higher discounts. We believe that near term headwinds has been factored in the stock price and is currently trading at its 1 year fwd P/E of 13x (28% discount to its 3yr historical average), which seems attractive. We value AL at 14x FY21E EPS with a revised target of Rs.112 and maintain our Buy rating.
ALL will be a key beneficiary of infrastructure spend by the central government (roads, metro, airports, etc) and deserves to be in one’sportfolio given net debt free B/S and healthy return ratios profile (RoCE >25%). For ALL, we factor in 6% volume CAGR, with consequent net sales CAGR at 11% in FY19-21E. PAT CAGR, however, is expected to be flat primarily tracking lower effective tax rate in FY19P (20.6%). We value the stock at Rs 100 using SOTP valuation methodology valuing core CV business at 7.0x EV/EBITDA on FY21E numbers. We have a HOLD rating on the stock.
We reduce our volume and PAT estimates by 0.3%/ 0.2% and 3.9% /2.6% for FY20 and FY21 respectively. We expect, ALL to report 9.7% volume CAGR and 7.6% PAT CAGR over FY19-21E. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a revised price target Rs123 (15xFY21E core earnings + Rs7 Subsidiary Valuations).
Reduction in inventories and limited capex growth (₹ 10-15 bn in FY 20 v/s 9.5 bn in FY 19) will lead to maintenance of near 20-25% return ratios. With strong prospects for LCV business and increased focus from management, we still remain sanguine on the stock. We maintain BUY rating with a reduced target of ₹ 104 on uncertain volume outlook.
Granular focus on expanding product offerings, deepening distribution and focus on profitable growth will ensure strong FCF. The correction in the stock factors in a significant adverse demand scenario (a sharp decline in volumes and cash flow), which is unlikely, in our view. Hence, we maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with SOTP-based target price of INR113 (8x September FY20E EV/EBITDA and INR8/share for the financing business). At current price, the stock is trading at 14.3x/13.1x FY20/21E PER.
We continue to build in volume growth of 10.9%/-4.4% for FY20/21E while slightly increasing our margin estimate (20bps for FY20/21E respectively) expecting the company’s cost controlefforts to somewhat offset the impact of discounting and maintain ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs107, at 9.5x Mar’21E EV/EBITDA.
We expect, volumes growth to kick in from Q2FY20 on implementation of BSVI emission norms & with focus on cost optimization EBITDA margins to remain intact. Company is also increasing its focus on exports, LCV segment, modular business which will reduce the dependence on cyclicality. We assign a P/E multiple of 16x to the FY20 estimated EPS of INR 7.38 to arrive at a target price of INR 111, an upside of 22% over the CMP. We assign a “BUY” rating to the stock.
Ashok Leyland is now shifting its focus toward expanding and creating new revenue/profit pools by de-risking its business by shifting its focus towards defense,spare parts and exports to boost revenues. Post elections company expects huge orders from defense segments with tenders in hand and exports to ramp up after launch of its Left-Hand Drive (LHD) compliant vehiclas.We have a BUY with a target of Rs.92
Factoring new launches in LCVs, we increase our volume estimates by 2-3%, while considering slower traction from defense segment, we reduce our revenue estimates by 1%/1.4% for FY20E/ FY21E. Maintaining our EBIDTA margin estimates, in line with revenue cut, we lower our EPS estimates by 1%/3% for FY20E/FY21E. In light of expected down-cycle for CV in FY21E, BSVI-led disruption and slowdown in M&HCV segment, we maintain our REDUCE recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs75 (from Rs78 earlier), valuing it at 14x FY21E EPS.