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ASHOKLEY Share Price Target
Ashok Leyland Ltd.
Sector: Auto
Sector: Auto
ASHOKLEY Share Price *
81.35 +2.85 (3.63%)
* (quote may be delayed)
ASHOKLEY Share Price Forecast - Consensus
| No. of reports in last year | 31 |
| No. of analysts | 15 |
| Average Consensus Forecast | 96.87 |
| Consensus Potential | 16.58% |
ASHOKLEY Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2019
Nirmal Bang
13-Nov-19
Price @ Call: 79.25
Target: 92
BUY
Company will introduce modular platform across its entire product portfolio from April’20 along with BS-VI, which will allow customers to customize the products as per its utilization and will be an attractive value proposition for customers. New models on modular platform will come with right as well as left hand drive so it can be exported. This platform reduces manufacturing complexity and improves productivity, thus making operations more efficient. We believe that all these measures will help AL when the CV cycle revives. We have revised our volume forecast by -12%/-5%+5% and PAT forecast by -28%/-10%/11% for FY20/21/22. We raise our target multiple to 17x from 15x earlier (last 5 year average one year forward PER is 21x) as we expect a revival in CV cycle from FY21, led by better GDP growth and lower base. We expect 10%/14% YoY volume growth in FY21/22. Our revised target price is Rs92 and we maintain our BUY rating.
Axis Direct
14-Oct-19
Price @ Call: 67.89
Target: 79
BUY
Ashok Leyland has been trading at its lower end (near mean -1 SD) of its PE based valuations for past several months and even a mean reversion to its historic valuation translates to a 10-15% upside in the stock from its current levels. With the CV cycle going through its trough, government focused on demand revival (as seen through various fiscal initiatives like tax cuts, accelerated depreciation), and other demand impetus such as discounts, festive season buying & pre-BS6 buying should lead to a rebound in prices of Ashok Leyland to its mean PE valuations. We maintain a BUY with a target price of Rs. 79
Reliance Securities
7-Oct-19
Price @ Call: 64.71
Target: 111
BUY
Axis Direct
7-Aug-19
Price @ Call: 62.66
Target: 72
HOLD
We revise Ashok Leyland Ltd (ALL) to a HOLD given the bleak demand environment on CV industry and broader economic slowdown. ALL being a dominant player in MHCV segment is well placed but the demand conditions may not pick up for entire FY20 if BS6 pre buying does not materialize. Exports would only pick up aggressively post expansion of product base and defense orders will come in H2FY20 which needs to be watched closely. We assign 14.1x P/E multiple to its FY21E consensus earnings of Rs. 5.1 per share with a target price of Rs. 72 per share giving a potential upside of 13%.
Angel Broking
3-Aug-19
Price @ Call: 63.93
Target: 93
BUY
Karvy Stock Broking
3-Aug-19
Price @ Call: 63.93
Target: 84
BUY
At CMP of Rs69, based on its core earnings, the stock is currently quoting at 9.1xFY21E earnings. We believe current valuations ignores ALL’s long term growthprospects and its competitive strength We retain our BUY rating on the stock with a revised price target Rs84 (13xFY21E core earnings + Rs7 Subsidiary Valuations).
LKP Securities Limited
2-Aug-19
Price @ Call: 63.93
Target: 80
BUY
The current pain in the market is roughly expected to continue till Q2 FY20. However, from Q2 onwards, for the next three quarters, we may see some recovery coming back in the form of BS VI pre-buying albeit at a slower rate. Good monsoon and higher influx of infra projects may drive demand. However, there lies a lot of uncertainty in demand based on current difficult market scenario. On the margin front, LCV merger, Modular program, cost cutting initiatives, price hikes etc will drive margins, however, higher discounting may steal the steam. Proactive measures taken in time to address the demand slowdown and market share gains during tough times gives us comfort. Reduction in inventories and limited capex growth will lead to maintenance of robust return ratios. With strong prospects for LCV business and increased focus from management, we still remain sanguine on the stock. We maintain BUY rating with a reduced target of ₹ 80 on uncertain volume outlook.
Nirmal Bang
2-Aug-19
Price @ Call: 63.93
Target: 80
BUY
We estimate a -7%/6.6% volume growth in FY20/21 and an EPS CAGR of -10%, owing to margin pressure and higher tax rate. Management expects commodity prices to remain moderate, which will help stabilize margins. The company is also focusing on efficient cost management across all the functions and expects to save costs totaling to Rs5,000mn in the current year. The AL stock price has corrected 23% in the last one month and 42% in the last one year. We believe the stock post correction trades at an attractive valuation of 13x FY21E EPS and we value it at 15x to arrive at our TP of Rs80. We maintain our BUY rating. No pre-buying and prolonged slowdown in the industry remains the key risk to our rating.
HDFC Securities
1-Aug-19
Price @ Call: 69.81
Target: 77
NEUTRAL
1QFY20 PAT (-45% YoY) was significantly below estimates as negative operating leverage impacted margins. The demand outlook is weak, with the company scaling back on its capex plans. We reduce FY20/21 earnings by 20/15% to factor in the above. Reiterate NEUTRAL with a revised TP of Rs 77 (13x on FY21E EPS). While the stock has corrected, we recommend that investors should await an uptick in the cycle before investing in the stock.
Prabhudas Lilladher
1-Aug-19
Price @ Call: 69.9
Target: 75
HOLD
We believe, these challenges are largely priced-in. On downcycle earnings (revenues/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of -2/-15/-16% in FY19-21), we value AL at 8x EV/EBITDA (20% discount to 5 year LPA ). We assign Rs13 to NBFC post 20% hold-co to arrive at target price of Rs75 (Mar-21) and downgrade the stock to Hold.
ICICIdirect.com
1-Aug-19
Price @ Call: 69.81
Target: 70
HOLD
For ALL, we estimate sales CAGR of 2.8% over FY19-21E. EBITDA, however, is seen remaining under pressure in a rising cost scenario, with margins deteriorating by 90 bps to FY21E. PAT growth, however, is in the negative territory amid an increase in effective tax rate. ALL’s net debt free B/S and healthy return ratios profile (RoCE >25%), however, provides us some comfort. We value the stock at Rs 70 on SOTP basis, valuing the core CV business at 5.5x EV/EBITDA on FY21E numbers and assign 1x P/B on its long term investments. We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock.
HDFC Securities
30-May-19
Price @ Call: 89.7
Target: 100
NEUTRAL
Ashok Leyland (AL) reported a better than expected 4Q with PAT at Rs 6.65bn amidst a challenging environment. We are increasing our earnings estimates by ~6% on the back of the results. We value the company at 13x PE multiple on FY21 earnings. Our revised target price is Rs 100. We reiterate our NEUTRAL rating on the stock. We believe that while the stock could rally on expectations of a pickup in government’s infrastructure spend, it should be used to reduce holdings. AL has to contend with several headwinds including (1) A weakening product mix (post axle load norm change), (2) Aggressive competition (Tata Motors will launch several new variants this year) and, (3) A change in management at a time of transition to BSVI (the company is searching for a new CEO post Mr. Dasari’s departure).
Geojit Financial Services
29-May-19
Price @ Call: 91.2
Target: 112
BUY
Despite the negative impact of higher raw material price and slow pick up in the heavy truck segment, we believe the turnaround in the LCV segment and export orders will cushion the overall profitability for the near term. We lower our Revenue & PAT estimates for FY20 by 0.9%/5.2% respectively, to factor an increase in effective tax rate and Average selling price (ASP) due to higher discounts. We believe that near term headwinds has been factored in the stock price and is currently trading at its 1 year fwd P/E of 13x (28% discount to its 3yr historical average), which seems attractive. We value AL at 14x FY21E EPS with a revised target of Rs.112 and maintain our Buy rating.
ICICIdirect.com
28-May-19
Price @ Call: 91.1
Target: 100
HOLD
ALL will be a key beneficiary of infrastructure spend by the central government (roads, metro, airports, etc) and deserves to be in one’sportfolio given net debt free B/S and healthy return ratios profile (RoCE >25%). For ALL, we factor in 6% volume CAGR, with consequent net sales CAGR at 11% in FY19-21E. PAT CAGR, however, is expected to be flat primarily tracking lower effective tax rate in FY19P (20.6%). We value the stock at Rs 100 using SOTP valuation methodology valuing core CV business at 7.0x EV/EBITDA on FY21E numbers. We have a HOLD rating on the stock.
Karvy Stock Broking
28-May-19
Price @ Call: 91.1
Target: 123
BUY
We reduce our volume and PAT estimates by 0.3%/ 0.2% and 3.9% /2.6% for FY20 and FY21 respectively. We expect, ALL to report 9.7% volume CAGR and 7.6% PAT CAGR over FY19-21E. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a revised price target Rs123 (15xFY21E core earnings + Rs7 Subsidiary Valuations).
LKP Securities Limited
28-May-19
Price @ Call: 92.01
Target: 104
BUY
Reduction in inventories and limited capex growth (₹ 10-15 bn in FY 20 v/s 9.5 bn in FY 19) will lead to maintenance of near 20-25% return ratios. With strong prospects for LCV business and increased focus from management, we still remain sanguine on the stock. We maintain BUY rating with a reduced target of ₹ 104 on uncertain volume outlook.
Edelweiss
27-May-19
Price @ Call: 93.65
Target: 112
BUY
Granular focus on expanding product offerings, deepening distribution and focus on profitable growth will ensure strong FCF. The correction in the stock factors in a significant adverse demand scenario (a sharp decline in volumes and cash flow), which is unlikely, in our view. Hence, we maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with SOTP-based target price of INR113 (8x September FY20E EV/EBITDA and INR8/share for the financing business). At current price, the stock is trading at 14.3x/13.1x FY20/21E PER.
Prabhudas Lilladher
27-May-19
Price @ Call: 93.65
Target: 107
BUY
We continue to build in volume growth of 10.9%/-4.4% for FY20/21E while slightly increasing our margin estimate (20bps for FY20/21E respectively) expecting the company’s cost controlefforts to somewhat offset the impact of discounting and maintain ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs107, at 9.5x Mar’21E EV/EBITDA.
Kotak Securities
27-May-19
Price @ Call: 90.72
Target: 130
BUY
KRChoksey
27-May-19
Price @ Call: 90.72
Target: 111
BUY
We expect, volumes growth to kick in from Q2FY20 on implementation of BSVI emission norms & with focus on cost optimization EBITDA margins to remain intact. Company is also increasing its focus on exports, LCV segment, modular business which will reduce the dependence on cyclicality. We assign a P/E multiple of 16x to the FY20 estimated EPS of INR 7.38 to arrive at a target price of INR 111, an upside of 22% over the CMP. We assign a “BUY” rating to the stock.
Axis Direct
25-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 81.85
Target: 92
BUY
Ashok Leyland is now shifting its focus toward expanding and creating new revenue/profit pools by de-risking its business by shifting its focus towards defense,spare parts and exports to boost revenues. Post elections company expects huge orders from defense segments with tenders in hand and exports to ramp up after launch of its Left-Hand Drive (LHD) compliant vehiclas.We have a BUY with a target of Rs.92
Geojit Financial Services
24-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 82.17
Target: 90
BUY
Angel Broking
19-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 79.15
Target: 122
BUY
ICICIdirect.com
18-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 80.1
Target: 85
HOLD
HDFC Securities
18-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 79.22
Target: 90
NEUTRAL
Motilal Oswal
18-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 80.1
Target: 110
BUY
Axis Direct
18-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 80.1
Target: 100
BUY
Karvy Stock Broking
18-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 80.1
Target: 107
BUY
Reliance Securities
15-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 79.81
Target: 75
REDUCE
Factoring new launches in LCVs, we increase our volume estimates by 2-3%, while considering slower traction from defense segment, we reduce our revenue estimates by 1%/1.4% for FY20E/ FY21E. Maintaining our EBIDTA margin estimates, in line with revenue cut, we lower our EPS estimates by 1%/3% for FY20E/FY21E. In light of expected down-cycle for CV in FY21E, BSVI-led disruption and slowdown in M&HCV segment, we maintain our REDUCE recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs75 (from Rs78 earlier), valuing it at 14x FY21E EPS.
Prabhudas Lilladher
15-Feb-19
Price @ Call: 79.81
Target: 103
BUY
ASHOKLEY Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2018
Sharekhan
24-Dec-18
Price @ Call: 104.39
Target: 117
HOLD
SPA Securities
22-Nov-18
Price @ Call: 110.12
Target: 147
BUY
Religare
22-Nov-18
Price @ Call: 110.12
Target: 144
BUY
HDFC Securities
15-Nov-18
Price @ Call: 106.66
Target: 150
BUY
Geojit Financial Services
30-Oct-18
Price @ Call: 115.66
Target: 125
BUY
Axis Direct
23-Oct-18
Price @ Call: 111.45
Target: 154
BUY
LKP Securities Limited
11-Oct-18
Price @ Call: 112.21
Target: 142
BUY
Motilal Oswal
11-Oct-18
Price @ Call: 114.35
Target: 148
BUY
Sharekhan
4-Sep-18
Price @ Call: 133.4
Target: 165
BUY
Geojit Financial Services
20-Jul-18
Price @ Call: 105.9
Target: 125
BUY
JM Financial
20-Jul-18
Price @ Call: 105.9
Target: 125
HOLD
SPA Securities
20-Jul-18
Price @ Call: 105.9
Target: 145
BUY
Dalmia Securities
20-Jul-18
Price @ Call: 105.9
Target: 155.2
BUY
Prabhudas Lilladher
19-Jul-18
Price @ Call: 116.35
Target: 146
BUY
Motilal Oswal
19-Jul-18
Price @ Call: 116.35
Target: 149
BUY
Edelweiss
19-Jul-18
Price @ Call: 116.35
Target: 165
BUY
HDFC Securities
19-Jul-18
Price @ Call: 110.6
Target: 143
BUY
Kotak Securities
19-Jul-18
Price @ Call: 110.6
Target: 128
BUY
ICICIdirect.com
19-Jul-18
Price @ Call: 110.6
Target: 135
BUY
LKP Securities Limited
19-Jul-18
Price @ Call: 110.6
Target: 147
BUY
Sharekhan
19-Jul-18
Price @ Call: 110.6
Target: 120
HOLD
LKP Securities Limited
23-May-18
Price @ Call: 141.18
Target: 171
BUY
Sharekhan
23-May-18
Price @ Call: 141.18
Target: 180
BUY
Motilal Oswal
23-May-18
Price @ Call: 141.18
Target: 181
BUY
HDFC Securities
23-May-18
Price @ Call: 141.18
Target: 166
BUY
Edelweiss
23-May-18
Price @ Call: 143.91
Target: 174
BUY
Prabhudas Lilladher
22-May-18
Price @ Call: 134.3
Target: 169
ACCUMULATE
Geojit Financial Services
22-May-18
Price @ Call: 134.3
Target: 155
BUY
ICICIdirect.com
25-Apr-18
Price @ Call: 162.34
Target: 180
BUY
Motilal Oswal
20-Apr-18
Price @ Call: 151.05
Target: 179
BUY
Edelweiss
20-Apr-18
Price @ Call: 153.92
Target: 175
BUY
Motilal Oswal
10-Apr-18
Price @ Call: 146.25
Target: 179
BUY
Angel Broking
7-Mar-18
Price @ Call: 139.4
Target: 163
BUY
Edelweiss
1-Mar-18
Price @ Call: 141.3
Target: 175
BUY
Dalmia Securities
28-Feb-18
Price @ Call: 137.7
Target: 152
BUY
Geojit Financial Services
14-Feb-18
Price @ Call: 133.35
Target: 147
BUY
SPA Securities
6-Feb-18
Price @ Call: 125.68
Target: 139
HOLD
Prabhudas Lilladher
5-Feb-18
Price @ Call: 122.25
Target: 143
ACCUMULATE
Edelweiss
5-Feb-18
Price @ Call: 122.25
Target: 162
BUY
Kotak Securities
5-Feb-18
Price @ Call: 124.31
Target: 145
BUY
Motilal Oswal
2-Feb-18
Price @ Call: 123.64
Target: 158
BUY
ASHOKLEY Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2017
Dalmia Securities
21-Nov-17
Price @ Call: 114.95
Target: 132
HOLD
Geojit Financial Services
16-Nov-17
Price @ Call: 113.4
Target: 123
BUY
Axis Direct
16-Nov-17
Price @ Call: 113.83
Target: 133
BUY
ICICIdirect.com
14-Nov-17
Price @ Call: 113.25
Target: 130
BUY
Kotak Securities
10-Nov-17
Price @ Call: 115.4
Target: 126
ACCUMULATE
Motilal Oswal
9-Nov-17
Price @ Call: 115.74
Target: 134
BUY
Prabhudas Lilladher
9-Nov-17
Price @ Call: 115.74
Target: 125
ACCUMULATE
Sharekhan
6-Oct-17
Price @ Call: 124.1
Target: 139
BUY
Dalmia Securities
14-Sep-17
Price @ Call: 117.83
Target: 140
BUY
Axis Direct
31-Jul-17
Price @ Call: 109.61
Target: 120
BUY
Sharekhan
27-Jul-17
Price @ Call: 106
Target: 120
BUY
Geojit Financial Services
26-Jul-17
Price @ Call: 105
Target: 116
BUY
HDFC Securities
25-Jul-17
Price @ Call: 104
Target: 118
BUY
Angel Broking
25-Jul-17
Price @ Call: 105
Target: 124
BUY
Edelweiss
24-Jul-17
Price @ Call: 104
Target: 135
BUY
Motilal Oswal
12-Jul-17
Price @ Call: 106
Target: 122
BUY
ICICIdirect.com
30-May-17
Price @ Call: 92
Target: 105
BUY
Sharekhan
29-May-17
Price @ Call: 91.7
Target: 105
BUY
Axis Direct
3-May-17
Price @ Call: 85
Target: 109
BUY
ICICIdirect.com
26-Apr-17
Price @ Call: 88
Target: 100
BUY
Motilal Oswal
22-Apr-17
Price @ Call: 85
Target: 98
BUY
Edelweiss
10-Apr-17
Price @ Call: 83
Target: 125
BUY
ICICIdirect.com
30-Jan-17
Price @ Call: 92
Target: 105
BUY
LKP Securities Limited
27-Jan-17
Price @ Call: 92
Target: 104
BUY
Religare
27-Jan-17
Price @ Call: 92.45
Target: 105
BUY
Edelweiss
16-Jan-17
Price @ Call: 85.03
Target: 125
BUY
ASHOKLEY Share Price Target - Broker Reports - 2016
Kotak Securities
14-Dec-16
Price @ Call: 77.8
Target: 70
SELL
Right Horizons
8-Dec-16
Price @ Call: 77.6
Target: 120
BUY
Geojit Financial Services
1-Dec-16
Price @ Call: 78
Target: 92
BUY
ICICIdirect.com
10-Nov-16
Price @ Call: 90
Target: 105
BUY
Prabhudas Lilladher
9-Nov-16
Price @ Call: 91
Target: 94
ACCUMULATE
Religare
19-Sep-16
Price @ Call: 84.25
Target: 130
BUY
ICICIdirect.com
16-Sep-16
Price @ Call: 81
Target: 95
BUY
Motilal Oswal
15-Sep-16
Price @ Call: 81.57
Target: 105
BUY
Geojit Financial Services
9-Aug-16
Price @ Call: 89.1
Target: 116
BUY
Religare
25-Jul-16
Price @ Call: 96.3
Target: 130
BUY
Kotak Securities
5-Jul-16
Price @ Call: 97.8
Target: 85
SELL
Shahina Mukadam
22-Jun-16
Price @ Call: 99.8
Target: 115
BUY
SPA Securities
3-Jun-16
Price @ Call: 106
Target: 79
SELL
Edelweiss
26-May-16
Price @ Call: 104
Target: 110
HOLD