Reposting
On closing basis, few observation on both index. Nifty tested 21EMA in today's session near high 19537 and fell approx 200 pts. Such a fall covered half from low's yet, closed below 19400 and near 19378. Chances are bounce back towards 19550 may comes, but a move below 19250 will open 18750 by August expiry.
Niftybank fell was more dramatic and brutal as was it's sharp rally in recent times. Only a close below 44370 may confirm for a quick move towards 42700 kind of levels in August. However, 45000 now become strong resistance (which may break also) with 45222 a level to watch for negating downside trade.
Interestingly, VIX closed in negative despite such volatility, the Jinx of lower vix could force more intraday moves and consolidation on close to close basis, market required a VIX above 13 for relevant moves and due health correction in the otherwise one sided market (either side) since year started.
Monthly option data in both index put some extra light whereas market participant still confident of a closing above 19500 & 45000 in respective index. Will the confidence shift or build further only time will tell. Till than keep tracking this space and get updated.
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