We have reduced our consol earnings estimates by 6.3%/2.3% for CY19/20E factoring lower than expected margin in Industrial Automation & Power Grid(PG) business and slowdown in automotive sector. 2QCY19 numbers of ABB India were lower than our and street estimations, largely on the back of lower than expected revenue growth in Robotics & Motion and Industrial Automation. Management indicated sluggish offtake due to elections, weak macros being the key reasons for lower revenue growth. However, strong traction in exports partially neutralized the slowdown in the domestic market. While automotive sector has been going through slowdown, sectors like Industrial, Oil & Gas, Transportation, Pulp & paper, Education continues to witness strong traction. Base orders during the quarter were up 16% YoY, resulting 23% YoY growth in order inflow (ex-PG). PG demerger is on track, the court convened shareholders and creditors meeting on August 9, 2019. Divestment of Solar Inverter business (~7-9% of total ex- PG revenue) would be completed by 1QCY20. We maintain Reduce rating with revised SOTP based TP of Rs1296 (Residual Business Rs927 (45x CY20E) + Power Grids Rs369 (25x CY20E)).
we expect CEAT’s operating performance to remain under pressure due to limited pricing power. Moreover, higher debt in B/S due to high capex over the next 2 years may prove to be major headwind for the stock in the medium-term. In view of lower volume, margin pressure, higher depreciation and interest expenses for higher debt, we cut our EPS estimates by 22%/6% for FY20E/FY21E. We expect down-cycle for automobile industry in FY21 and stock to underperform. Maintaining our P/E valuation multiple at 12.5x factoring lower return ratios on higher capex, we maintain our REDUCE recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs875 (from Rs930 earlier), valuing it at 12.5x FY21E EPS.