Ashish Chaturmohta
The Nifty50 closed above its crucial level of 9,000 on May 20. Broader market indices BSE Midcap and Smallcap underperformed the benchmark indices with a gaining 1.49 percent and 1.13 percent respectively for the day.
This week, the index managed to hold above the support level of 8,800 and bounced back. After consolidating between 9,030 and 8,800 odd levels, the index is seeing a breakout on the upside.
If Nifty manages to sustain above 9,030, it can rally towards 9,160 and then towards 9,280 levels. The trend remains down and a close above 9,600 levels will see a reversal.
On the downside, if the Nifty50 breaks below 8,800 levels, the market is likely to see a decline towards 8400 levels.
In Nifty May monthly expiry options, the maximum open interest for Put is seen at strike price 9,000 followed by 8,500 while for Call maximum open interest is seen at 10,000 followed by 9,500.
The Nifty options distribution data is suggesting a range of 9,300 and 8,800. India VIX is at 35.8 and is currently consolidating at lower levels.
Here is a list of top 4 stocks which could give 15-16% returns in the next 1-3 months:
The stock took support at around 200-day moving average (DMA) in March and since then it has rallied sharply. It witnessed a rally from the low of 1,583 in March to touch a high of 2,699 last month.
The rally was on high volumes indicating buying participation in the stock. Since then, the stock corrected down towards 2,225 levels and it has been in a range between 2,225 and 2,575 levels since then.
The price has taken support at a 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and is consolidating above it. The price has given a breakout on the upside from the Bollinger Band, and with the expansion of bands on daily chart indicating a continuation of the trend in the direction of the breakout.
Thus, after a strong up move, the stock is consolidated its gains and is now showing sing of resumption of the uptrend.
Momentum indicators are in a bullish mode on the daily as well as weekly charts. Thus, stock can be bought at current levels and on dips towards 2,530 with a stop loss below 2,440, and a target of 2,960 levels.
Cipla Ltd: Buy | LTP: Rs 621 | Stop Loss: Rs 590 | Target: Rs 720 | Upside 16%
The stock was in a major downtrend for the last 5 years. It hit a low of 355 in March, and since then, the stock has seen a strong recovery from these levels.
Volumes were high indicating buying participation in the stock. The price has crossed and is sustaining above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the long-term decline 753-355, indicating a change in the long-term uptrend.
After the sharp vertical rally, the stock was consolidating its gains in a range of 620 and 570 odd levels. Now, the stock is exhibiting signs of resumption of the uptrend.
The price has given a breakout on the upside from Bollinger Band, and with the expansion of bands on the daily chart indicates a continuation of the trend in the direction of the breakout.
Thus, the stock can be bought at current levels and on dips towards 610 with a stop loss below 590, and a target of 720 levels.
Escorts Ltd: Buy | LTP: Rs 869 | Stop Loss: Rs 825 | Target: Rs 1,000 | Upside 15%
On the long-term monthly chart, the stock has formed a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern. The recent decline which is part of the larger reversal pattern was made on below-average volumes while the previous up move was on high volumes.
The price has given a breakout on the upside from Bollinger bands, and with expansion on the daily chart indicates a continuation of the trend in the direction of the breakout.
Relative strength index and Stochastic have given positive crossover with their respective averages on the daily chart.
MACD has given positive crossover with its average above equilibrium level of zero on the weekly chart. Thus, the stock can be bought at current levels and on dips towards 855 with a stop loss below 825, and a target of 1,000 levels.
PI Industries Ltd: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,486 | Stop Loss: Rs 1,410 | Target: Rs 1,720 | Upside 15%
The stock witnessed a sharp fall from the all-time high of 1629 to a low of 970 in the months of February-March. Since then, the price has seen a vertical recovery from the lows indicating buying interest in the stock.
After touching a high of 1,605, the stock has corrected to the current level of 1,486. The price has taken support at the 100-day moving average. Also, it has retraced 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire up move.
Stochastic has given positive crossover with its average on the daily chart. Thus, the stock can be bought at current levels and on dips towards 1,465 with a stop loss below 1,410, and a target of 1,720 levels.
(The author is Head of Technical and Derivatives, Sanctum Wealth Management)
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