ICICI Direct's research report on Coal India
Coal India (CIL) reported healthy operational performance for Q1FY20 wherein EBITDA and PAT came in higher than our estimate. CIL reported a sales volume of 153 million tonne (MT) (nearly flattish YoY but down 6% QoQ). FSA sales volume came in at 130 MT while FSA realisations during the quarter was at Rs 1370/tonne (up 4.4% YoY, higher than our estimate of Rs 1360/tonne). E-auction volumes came in at 19.1 MT while e-auction realisations were at Rs 2155/tonne. The company reported a total operating income of Rs 24939 crore up 3% YoY (our estimate of Rs 25,587 crore). EBITDA came in at Rs 6612 crore, up 15% YoY (our estimate of Rs 6052 crore). EBITDA/tonne was at Rs 431 /tonne (our estimate of Rs 395/tonne). The ensuing PAT came in at Rs 4629 crore, up 22%YoY (our estimate of Rs 4395 crore).
Outlook
Going forward, we value the stock at 5x FY21E EV/EBITDA (downward revised from 5.5x earlier on the back of flattish trend witnessed in production and off take volume) and arrive at a target price of Rs 225. We maintain our HOLD recommendation.
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