SGX Nifty up 5 points; here's what changed for market while you were sleeping

Optimism over vaccine development and better-than-expected September quarter GDP print may help domestic stocks add to the gains on Tuesday, but an overnight fall in US stocks could limit the upside. All eyes will be on November auto sales numbers and PMI readings globally.
Here’s breaking down the pre-market actions:

STATE OF THE MARKETS
SGX Nifty signals muted start
Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 4 points, or 0.03 per cent higher at 12,997, in signs that Dalal Street was headed for a muted start on Tuesday.

Tech View: Nifty's Doji signals negative signals
Nifty50 on Friday formed a bearish candle on the daily chart and an indecisive Doji on the weekly chart. The day saw the NSE barometer facing resistance above the psychological mark of 13,000, which has been the case for the past couple of sessions now. Analysts largely see 12,750-13,150 as the range for the index for the coming week. A break above this range can offer directional cues, they said.

Asian stocks rise in early trade
Asian stock markets rose on Tuesday even as Wall Street stocks fell overnight, thanks to the prospect of a COVID-19 vaccine. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe was roughly flat, and Australia's S&P ASX 200 was up 0.15 per cent. In early Asian trade, Japan's Nikkei 225 added 1.33 per cent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was up 0.44 per cent. China's Shanghai Composite index edged 0.16 per cent higher.

Oil falls as OPEC+ talks delays raise supply concerns
Oil prices slipped on Tuesday amid concerns over mounting supply after leading producers delayed talks on 2021 output policy that could extend production cuts as the coronavirus pandemic continues to sap fuel demand. Opening trading for December Brent crude was down 20 cents, or 0.4 per cent at $47.68 a barrel, after dropping more than 1 per cent on Monday. WTI was down by 27 cents, or 0.6 per cent at $45.07 a barrel, having dropped 0.4 per cent in the previous session.

US stocks settled lower
The S&P500 index ended lower on Monday as investors took profits following a sharp rally in recent weeks that led to the benchmark's best November ever. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.91 per cent to end at 29,638.64 points, while the S&P500 index lost 0.46 per cent at 3,621.67. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.06 per cent to 12,198.74, Reuters reported.

Investors may react to GDP numbers
Tuesday would see investors reacting to the GDP numbers, which showed that the economy shrank 7.5 per cent in the September quarter after June quarter's 23.9 per cent and thus, technically the economy entered into the recession.That said, the latest numbers are better than Street expectations. Nomura has revised upward its 2020 GDP growth forecast to -7.1 per cent against -9 per cent earlier, and FY21 estimate to -8.2 per cent from -10.8 per cent.

All eyes on November auto sales data
November Auto sales volumes data will begin pouring in from today. Emkay Global in a note said that wholesales growth should be robust for tractors, two-wheelers and car makers, supported by healthy retails and a favorable base. In two-wheelers and personal vehicle segments, the base was low due to the timing of the festive season. In tractors, channel filling is also expected to aid growth, it said. The domestic commercial vehicle industry volumes are expected to stay muted.

FIIs buy Rs 7,713 cr worth of stocks
Net-net, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 7712.98 crore, data available with NSE suggested. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 4,968.90 crore, data suggests.

MONEY MARKETS
Rupee: The rupee snapped its five-day winning streak to finish 17 paise lower at 74.05 against the US dollar on Friday on emergence of demand for the greenback from banks and importers.

10-year bonds: India 10-year bond yield rose 0.66 per cent to 5.91 after trading in 5.88-5.91 range.

Call rates: The overnight call money rate weighted average stood at 3.13 per cent, according to RBI data. It moved in a range of 1.90-3.40 per cent.

DATA/EVENTS TO WATCH

• India Markit Manufacturing PMI Nov (10:30 am)
• Japan Unemployment Rate Oct (05:00 am)
• Korea Balance of Trade Nov (05:30 am)
• Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final Nov (06:00 am)
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI Nov (07:15 am)
• UK Nationwide Housing Prices YoY Nov (12:30 pm)
• Euro Area Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Nov (02:30 pm)
• US Fed Chair Powell Testimony (08:30 pm)
• ECB President Lagarde Speech (10:30 pm)

MACROS
S&P says India to shrink 9% in FY21.. S&P Global Ratings on Monday retained its forecast of 9% contraction in India’s economy for FY21 and 10% growth for FY22. "We retain our growth forecast of negative 9% in fiscal 2020-2021 and 10% in fiscal 2021-2022," the rating agency said. S&P said it will wait for more signs that infections have stabilised or fallen, together with high-frequency activity data for the fiscal year third quarter, before changing its forecasts.

Biden brings in Yellen to head Treasury... US President-elect Joe Biden on Monday announced his senior economic team, including his plans to nominate the first woman to head the Treasury Department as well as several liberal economists and policy specialists who established their credentials during the previous two Democratic administrations. Biden said he would nominate Janet Yellen, the former Fed Chair, to lead the Treasury Department, and former Clinton and Obama adviser Neera Tanden to serve as director of the Office of Management and Budget.

Petrol price at 25-month high.. Petrol prices are at a 25-month high following successive rate increases by state oil companies in the last 10 days. Since November 19, petrol prices have risen by Rs 1.28 per litre while diesel prices are up by Rs 1.96 per litre. On Monday, petrol was available for Rs 82.34 per litre in Delhi, the highest since October 19, 2018. Diesel was selling for Rs 72.42 a litre, the highest since September 6 this year

Realty stress fund aid for 136 projects... An investment fund set up by the government to help complete the construction of some housing projects stalled due to lack of finance has approved investments of over Rs 13,200 crore for 136 projects and has started deploying money in 36 projects, instilling confidence among homebuyers. Projects supported by the Special Window for Completion of Construction of Affordable and Mid-Income Housing Projects have started witnessing fresh sales and collection of dues from existing homebuyers.

Falling interest rates shift savers to pricey stocks... Indian savers rarely have had to brood over eroding values of their fixed deposits unlike their Western counterparts. While interest rates in India have not been cut to the near-zero levels as in the advanced economies, RBI’s latest experiment with negative real interest rates, in an attempt to jumpstart the economy, is forcing squirrels out of their burrows. Result: They are dipping their toes into shares that have hitherto been ignored by the markets — and even out-of-favour residential properties.

Tomar offers talks to agitating farmers.. Union Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar has invited leaders of farmer unions, protesting the three central farm reform laws, for talks on Tuesday, instead of December 3, citing the Covid-19 pandemic and cold. Thousands of farmers stayed put at various Delhi border points for the fifth consecutive day on Monday protesting the new farm laws, which they fear will dismantle the minimum support price system and corporatise farming.

Voda award challenge weighed at top-most level... The arbitration award to Vodafone by the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration in the longstanding tax dispute was recently discussed at the highest level of the government where Prime Minister Narendra Modi was present, as the deadline to appeal against the verdict approaches. While there is a strong view within the administration that the award should be challenged at the Singapore-based appellate tribunal, no final decision has been taken yet. The government has time till December-end to appeal against the award.

FIIs most bullish on India in 3 years... Foreign investors are the most optimistic on the Indian stock market in more than three years if one goes by the long-short ratio of their positions in the derivatives segment. Expectations of a vaccine and continued liquidity support from global central banks are making overseas buyers bullish on India. Many investors are not willing to bet against the market rally, fuelled by a tidal wave of foreign flows, but derivative analysts believe that this ratio has now reached an extreme and the rally appears 'tired' at higher levels.