Emkay Global Financial's research report on ITC
We hold a positive stance on ITC, heartened by its improved management execution, ahead-of-time investment in businesses, and leadership position in most segments. Overall revenue fell 8% in Q1, while growing 11% adjusted for Agri revenue; Cigarettes net sales grew 11% (volume growth estimate: ~8%) and Other FMCG sales growth was a healthy 16%. Cigarettes EBIT grew 11% YoY (as it navigates margin pressure well), with EBIT margin at 74.2%, up by ~20bps YoY. Other FMCG EBITDA margin stands at 11%, up by 375bps YoY (PLI benefit: 30-40bps). We see double-digit EBIT growth for Cigarettes and healthy EBITDA expansion for the Other FMCG segment, going forward.
Outlook
We uprear our earnings estimates for Cigarettes by 3%, on better pricing power/margins; this hoists our SOTP-based Jun-24E TP to Rs 535/share (vs Rs525 earlier).
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