The current nation-wide lockdown may not be lifted until September. According to a study conducted by American consultancy firm BCG, India may start lifting restrictions only between the fourth week of June and second week of September, the report claimed.
The extended time to lift the restrictions is primarily due to challenges such as the preparedness of the overall health system and public policy effectiveness, the BCG paper said.
When contacted, a BCG spokesperson said:
"BCG regularly does scenario planning to support our clients with all kinds of business issues. We analyze internally and externally gathered data to formulate these scenarios. For this unprecedented pandemic, with its extreme level of uncertainty, BCG does not claim to provide predictions about duration of lockdown, peak of viral infections, the efficacy of health systems, or other health and societal impacts.
A BCG document, illustrating one scenario of how the COVID-19 virus might progress globally, has been circulating publicly without context or authorization from BCG. The projections contained in the document vary by 100-1000x, and were built to study one range of possible outcomes.
This is an internal working document based on one set of data and not authorized for public release, please correct your story to clarify the following: This is not an official view from BCG, and BCG has not released any data purporting to state how the pandemic will pan out."
The extension prediction across 20 countries, the BCG paper said, is based on China's experience of dealing with the COVID-19 outbreak, efficiency of the healthcare system of the countries and overall preparedness of governments.
The report suggested that India -- imposed a nationwide lockdown in line with China's timing of the lockdown -- is likely to see the number of COVID-19 cases peak in the third week of June.
COVID-19 cases in the country crossed the 2,300-mark on April 3, while death toll due to the virus was at 56.
Note: This story has been updated with a statement from BCG
The extended time to lift the restrictions is primarily due to challenges such as the preparedness of the overall health system and public policy effectiveness, the BCG paper said.
When contacted, a BCG spokesperson said:
"BCG regularly does scenario planning to support our clients with all kinds of business issues. We analyze internally and externally gathered data to formulate these scenarios. For this unprecedented pandemic, with its extreme level of uncertainty, BCG does not claim to provide predictions about duration of lockdown, peak of viral infections, the efficacy of health systems, or other health and societal impacts.
A BCG document, illustrating one scenario of how the COVID-19 virus might progress globally, has been circulating publicly without context or authorization from BCG. The projections contained in the document vary by 100-1000x, and were built to study one range of possible outcomes.
This is an internal working document based on one set of data and not authorized for public release, please correct your story to clarify the following: This is not an official view from BCG, and BCG has not released any data purporting to state how the pandemic will pan out."
The extension prediction across 20 countries, the BCG paper said, is based on China's experience of dealing with the COVID-19 outbreak, efficiency of the healthcare system of the countries and overall preparedness of governments.
The report suggested that India -- imposed a nationwide lockdown in line with China's timing of the lockdown -- is likely to see the number of COVID-19 cases peak in the third week of June.
COVID-19 cases in the country crossed the 2,300-mark on April 3, while death toll due to the virus was at 56.
Note: This story has been updated with a statement from BCG
First Published: Apr 3, 2020 4:20 PM IST
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