Ahead of Market: 10 things that will decide D-Street action on Monday

Markets were closed on Friday on account of Ambedkar Jayanti.

Here's how analysts read the market pulse:

“Indian shares experienced a downturn, weighed down by IT stocks following weak quarterly earnings and a cautious outlook from the top IT firm, which flagged apprehensions over deferred spending and uncertainty in its BFSI segment. The decrease in CPI inflation to 5.66% in India, coupled with the moderation of core inflation, supports the decision of the MPC to keep policy rates on hold. While US inflation cooled to 5.0%, anxieties grew globally after the FOMC minutes hinted at a possible "mild recession" due to the impact of banking turmoil,” Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said.

“On the charts, we can observe that the Nifty witnessed an intraday dip. However, the zone of 17750 – 17720, where support in the 20-hour moving average absorbed the selling pressure and restricted further slide. On a weekly basis, the Nifty has managed to close above the 20-week moving average (17789), which is a Bullish sign. The weekly momentum indicator has triggered a fresh positive crossover, which is a buy signal.

Considering the sharp run-up in the previous nine trading sessions, a consolidation is highly probable, however, it should be considered as a buying opportunity. In terms of levels, 17860 – 17900 is the immediate hurdle, while 17730 – 17700 shall act as crucial support from a short-term perspective. On the upside, we expect the nifty to target levels of 18000,” Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said.

That said, here’s a look at what some key indicators are suggesting for Monday’s action:

Wall Street
Wall Street stocks finished lower on Friday as disappointing US retail sales data offset a lift from better-than-expected bank earnings.

Retail sales fell by a surprisingly big one percent in March, extending a downward trend that signals cooling in the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average ended down 0.4 percent at 33,886.47.

The broad-based S&P 500 declined 0.2 percent to 4,137.64, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index shed 0.4 percent to 12,123.47.

European shares
European shares hit their highest in over a year on Friday and ended their fourth straight week in the green, buoyed by positive earnings from major U.S. banks and hopes of an end to the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle.

The pan-European STOXX 600 closed up 0.6% on Friday, after hitting its highest level since February 2022 earlier in the session.

Tech View: Positive candle
A small positive candle was formed on the daily chart with a long lower shadow. Technically, this pattern indicates a buy-on intraday dips opportunity on Thursday. Nifty is currently attempting to stage an upside breakout of the crucial overhead resistance at 17800 levels (previous lower top of 6th March).

Stocks showing bullish bias
Momentum indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed bullish trade on the counters of BHEL, Federal Bank, Campus Activewear, Havells India and Jubilant Foodworks, among others.

The MACD is known for signalling trend reversals in traded securities or indices. When the MACD crosses above the signal line, it gives a bullish signal, indicating that the price of the security may see an upward movement and vice versa.

Stocks signaling weakness ahead
The MACD showed bearish signs on the counters of AIA Engineering, Relaxo Footwears, Shanthi Gears and Shree Cement, among others.
A bearish crossover on the MACD on these counters indicated that they had just begun their downward journey.

Most active stocks in value terms
ICICI Bank (Rs 3078 crore), HDFC Bank (Rs 2979 crore), Axis Bank (Rs 2045 crore), AU Small Finance Bank (Rs 2042 crore) and Infosys (Rs 1571 crore) were among the most active stocks on NSE in value terms. Higher activity on a counter in value terms can help identify the counters with the highest trading turnovers in the day.

Most active stocks in volume terms
Yes Bank (Shares traded: 7.61 crore), Suzlon Energy (Shares traded: 4.93 crore), Vodafone Idea (Shares traded: 3.88 crore), Tata Steel (Shares traded: 3.48 crore) and ICICI Bank (Shares traded: 3.44 crore) were among the most traded stocks in the session on NSE.

Stocks showing buying interest
Shares of Anupam Rasayan, JB Chemicals, Apar Industries, Data Patterns and IndiaMART InterMESH, among others witnessed strong buying interest from market participants as they scaled their fresh 52-week highs, signalling bullish sentiment.

Stocks seeing selling pressure
Shares of Nirman Agri Genetics, Seya Industries and SVP Global, among others hit their 52-week lows, signalling bearish sentiment on the counters.

Sentiment meter favours bulls
Overall, market breadth favoured bulls as 1,911 stocks ended in the green, while 1,581 names settled with cuts.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)