Ahead of Market: 12 things that will decide stock action on Monday

NEW DELHI: The selling pressure continues to mount day-by-day as headwinds become stronger. Analysts advise to be cautious and stick to quality names only.

Here's how analysts read the market pulse:
Nifty50 gave up around 300 points from the intraday high of 16,083, which hints at a lack of conviction on the part of bulls about the sustainability of up move at higher levels, said Mazhar Mohammad of Chartviewindia.in.

Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities, said Nifty50 is nearing a crucial lower support of previous swing low at 15,670 hit on March 8. The index is expected to break below this swing low to form a new lower bottom of the sequence, he said.

That said, here’s a look at what some key indicators are suggesting for Monday’s action:

Wall Street rallies, weekly losing streak continues
Wall Street surged on Friday to end higher, closing the book on a week of wild market gyrations as relief at signs of peaking inflation vied with fears that policy tightening by the Federal Reserve could tilt the economy into recession.

European stocks mark positive end to volatile week
European shares rose on Friday, closing higher for the first time in five weeks, as a bout of bargain hunting took over after worries about aggressive monetary policy tightening and slowing global growth. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 2.1%, with travel and leisure, banks and personal and household stocks leading gains.

Tech View: Bearish candle
Nifty50 on Friday closed lower for straight sixth session. The index formed a bearish candle on the daily chart even as it managed to negate its lower high-low formation. On the weekly scale, the index formed a long bearish candle with a long upper wick, suggesting selling pressure at higher levels.

F&O: Resistance at 16,100
On the call side highest OI was witnessed at 16,100 followed by 16,200 strike price while on the put side, the highest OI was at 15,000 followed by 14,700 strike price, providing support to the Nifty index.

Stocks showing bullish bias
Momentum indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed bullish trade setup on the counters of P&G Health, Home First Finance, Siemens and Avanti Feeds.

The MACD is known for signaling trend reversals in traded securities or indices. When the MACD crosses above the signal line, it gives a bullish signal, indicating that the price of the security may see an upward movement and vice versa.

Stocks signalling weakness ahead
The MACD showed bearish signs on the counters of Power Grid, Tech Mahindra, Petronet LNG and Oracle Financial Services. Bearish crossover on the MACD on these counters indicated that they have just begun their downward journey.

Most active stocks in value terms
Tata Motors (Rs 2892 crore), SBI (Rs 2836 crore), Reliance Industries (Rs 2185 crore), Tata Elxsi (Rs 2090 crore), Bajaj Finance (Rs 1188 crore), HDFC Bank (Rs 1091 crore) and ICICI Bank (Rs 1084 crore) were among the most active stocks on NSE in value terms. Higher activity on a counter in value terms can help identify the counters with highest trading turnovers in the day.

Most active stocks in volume terms
Vodafone Idea (Shares traded: 12 crore), Zomato (Shares traded: 8 crore), Tata Motors (Shares traded: 7 crore), YES Bank (Shares traded: 7 crore), Visesh Info (Shares traded: 7 crore) and GTL Infra (Shares traded: 7 crore) were among the most traded stocks in the session on NSE.

Stocks showing buying interest
No stocks witnessed strong buying interest from market participants as they scaled their fresh 52-week highs, signaling bullish sentiment.

Stocks seeing selling pressure
Indus Towers, Oracle Financial Services Software, Honeywell Automation, Emami, HDFC AMC, GSPL and Aavas Financiers witnessed strong selling pressure and hit their 52-week lows, signaling bearish sentiment on the counters.

Sentiment meter favours bulls
Overall, market breadth favoured losers as 2,162 stocks ended in the green, while 1,178 names settled with cuts.

Podcast: Is 'sell on rise' best strategy to make money now?

After five weeks of continuous decline, domestic benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty showed no signs of any trend reversal. In fact, traders are using any upside to get rid of their positions amid weak global cues and mixed earnings data. In today's special podcast with independent market expert Rajiv Nagpal, we try to understand what is the best way out to survive and thrive in a declining market.