Union Budget 2023: Expect modest fiscal consolidation
We expect the fiscal deficit to consolidate to 5.8% of GDP in FY24. Gross tax revenue growth is likely to moderate ~7% in FY24 (vs. estimated 11% in FY23). While direct tax and GST buoyancy could stay healthy in FY24 and RBI dividend could improve, we could see moderation in other components of indirect taxes, marginally lower PSU dividend and spectrum-related telecom receipts. The Disinvestment pipeline has also cooled off after the LIC stake sale.