USDINR : USDINR last week closed positive with very massive gains of 1.57%, and agressive volatility of 163 paisa. Set up in the pair, turned bullish to neutral with RSI above 70 (on weekly timeframe), the pair closed with massive gains on the week after last week doji formation on weekly timeframe and turned positive. Volatile moves in pairs came on the backdrop of massive strength in dollar, despite falling oil, but negative inflow by FII/FPI resumed. The FX reserve data posted yet again massive decline of $5.22B compared to last week at $545.65B. Going ahead, the trend remains bullish with neutral bias as per set up. The Global currency Market remained extremely volatile. Last week Rupee remained the second worst performer among asian and EM Currency basket only after Aussie. As per monthly option data, highest combined OI 5.9 lacs in PE & CE at 81 as max pain point with a combined premium of 44 paisa, indicates 80.57-81.47 kind of range/closing for the week. Technically, the pair break the upper range of 80.33 and rose approx 90 paisa, the gains could extend upto 81.55, only a dip below 80.77 could trigger the correction. Any correction towards 80.81-73 could likely be bought out unless the pair breached 80.67 on downside, if the pair closed above 81.37 it may remain upward with 81.77 as crucial resistance for the pair. As long as USDINR supports 80.57, the pair may not turn bearish in the short term. Going ahead, 80.77 will remain trend changing, stay on the buy side above this level and remain on the sell side below this level, an ideal strategy for the week. Last week we were expecting higher volatility in Rupee, and it remains so. Going ahead, We expect high volatility to continue in the Rupee. #Forex *Weekly Update *Delayed
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