Nifty plunged near to 200 EMA 17550 & recovered moderatly after short covering to 17604 ( down 287 points). Low was 17494 which is three months low after October 21. Today's low is crucial for next week in which a big event of budget will take place. Traders and investors are very cautious ahead of Budget & Fed Meeting. 17800-750 considered to be a strong support, broken easily prior to the big event. Pre budget rally was just started and Fiis selling pressure came and trend changed to bearish... Still fear seen amongst investors feternity.. No major expectations are being kept from government. Finance Minister hinted no more hopes as country has to progress further and financial crunch can be the hurdle amid global recession ( so called ).
It breached the important support of 17,800 and formed a long bearish candle on the daily as well as the weekly charts. 200-day exponential moving average (DEMA) at 17,550 and the day's low of 17,494 would be the levels to watch, though a minor pullback rally can't be ruled out. If two levels are broken decisively, all eyes will then be on the long support trend line adjoining the lows of March 2020 and June 2022 or the 200 SMA (around 17,300).... Today's low should not be broken, if so happens, nifty may dragge down further.
Looking to option chain, maximum open interest on call side seen at 18000 & maximum put have been written at 17100-17000. So nifty range widen to 17000 - 18000. High volatility can be seen around budget time and in past, we usually see high volatility in the month of February every year. India vix also climbed up..
Bank nifty also formed a long bearish candle on the daily as well as weekly charts, falling 1,302 to 40,345. It was down 5 percent for the week. It was firmed against nifty but now, failed to outperform. 40000 can as strong support, if it breaks further down side can not be rulled out. Every rise was sold off and no one would like to be long as of now, hence fear of being trapped is high..
Next week is a budget week, let's hope for better
Signing off for the day and week 💐